Thursday, November 26, 2015

NFL Week 12: Someone, Please...Stop The Pain

Don't Judge Me, I'm Trying My Best Over Here
Its been a brutal two weeks. Actually, its been a brutal three weeks. And to throw an "actually" on top of that, its been a brutal three years. With so much promise for the 2015 campaign, as yours truly was 6 games north of .500 going into the midway part of the season, the month of November has treated me like a baby treats a diaper. And by that, I mean a baby who has just eaten Gerber's new Prunes and Baked Beans Dinner For Toddlers.

3-11-1 ATS for the month, heading into my Tyrptophan coma, has me avoiding The Legend's email ridicule like its going out of style. The only thing that is preventing me from getting a well deserved beat down from the coke bottle wearing, bald headed bastard, is the 2,500 miles or so between Las Vegas and the friendly confines of my abode in Loudoun County.

But like Bluto Blutarsky once said, there is no time for this lying around shit, and "nothing is over until we decide it is!" So The Legend and Dean Wormer can kiss my lily white ass, as I will continue to move onward and upwards towards respectability.

Carolina (+1.5) at Dallas
To quote Jack Torrence from The Shining when Wendy runs down to the hotel bar to tell him that there is a woman in room 237 who tried to strangle Danny, "Are you out of your f**king mind?!?"  So you're telling me I get 10-0 Carolina- a team who has won 14 straight regular season games in a row- against a 3-7 team- Tony Romo or no Tony Romo (I don't care)- and I'm getting points???... So again, Mr. Vegas, I ask you, "Are you out of your f**king mind?!?"....The last (and only) time an NFL team entered Week 11 at 10-0 as a Vegas underdog, was in 1985 when 10-0 Chicago went to Dallas as a road dog. Ron Riveria and the future 1985 Super Bowl Champion Bears emerged from that game as 44-0 winners (thanks, Bleacher Report). Also, Carolina has rushed for 100 yards or more in like a million straight games. Good luck with that, Cowboy fan. 27-21 Panthers.

A-Rod with Title Town's Public Enemy #1 
Chicago at Green Bay (-8.5)
The Packers snapped a three game losing streak last week, with an impressive road win against divisional foe Minnesota. The Packers, seemingly, have righted the ship heading down the stretch of the 2015 campaign, and Aaron Rodgers can get back to banging girlfriend Olivia Munn without much scrutiny from those cheesehead wearing slobs that live in Wisconsin. Da Bears have played descent as of late, and have pretty much kept games close all season long. But they've lost 9 of the last 10 they've played against the Pack, and this is just not the spot for them on a short week, as they've dropped 4 straight games against the number when playing on the day in between Wednesday and Friday. Green Bay gets the Big W and cover, and Olivia gets the Big O later Thursday night. 30-14 Packers.

Miami at NY Jets (-3.5)
After starting off 4-1, the New York Football Jets reversed fortune, and have lost 4 of their last 5. I know the feeling. Word has it that the normally calm, cool, and collected Todd Bowles lost his shit behind closed doors, following last week's loss at Houston. Here is an amazing stat: the road team in this series has won 7 straight. But nevermind that. The Fins have failed to cover 4 straight against the Jets, and their meat head interim coach is no match against Bowles and the Jets (still) Top 5 defense. This is my 10,000 Star Game of The Month, and if it makes you feel any better before you bet the mortgage here, my 10,000 Star Barking Dog of The Month last week was San Diego! 26-20 Jets.

NY Giants at Washington (+3)
"This Is The Finger I Use To Shove Up Washington's Ass."
I'm not sure what the hell is going on with Red Faced Coughlin this season, as some of his in game coaching decisions leave little to be desired. Clock and down management issues all year, and now they're on the road laying points against divisional foe Washington, who are coming off a ream job from the zebras in Carolina. Here's what you need to know: the Redskins are descent at home (4-1), the Giants defense still sucks (31st), and the Giants have beaten Washington 5 straight games (due factor). Interesting note, to put the cherry on top of Jerome Booger Eater and Crew's game changing officiating last week, and to give some merit to Jason Hatcher's post game remarks: this will mark the 4th time in just 11 games, that the Redskins will face a team who is either coming off their Bye or a Thursday Night game (10 days rest). Hummmm....33-21 Redskins.

Pittsburgh at Seattle (-3.5)
The Seahawks are on kind of a mini heater. They've won 3 out of 4, and if not for three blown 4th quarter leads against three very good teams (Arizona, Carolina, and Cincy), they just might be on a 6 game heater. But they're not, and that's fine, but I'll quickly dismiss the "well, who have they beat?" crowd, because its a dumb argument here. Trust me. Seattle takes care of business here against an under the radar average Pittsburgh team, and that midget Russell Wilson has a big day against a Pittsburgh pass Defense that's abysmal. The NFC Wildcard race will officially be "game on" after this Sunday, and Seattle will be right in the mix. 29-17 Seahawks.

Last Week                     0-4-1 ATS
YTD                         25-27-3 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-26-15**Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

The Legend Chronicles, Part 4: The Yack Has a New Name, According to IHJ (The Legend)

Herewith westgate five numbers…panthers plus 1 ½….packers minus 8 ½….skins plus 3….jets minus 3 ½….seahawks minus 3 ½……

On a side note the following tirade are ihj’s true feelings……


   And I did not misspell ur new name…u sir disgust me……u have recorded a number of 1 ½ out of the last 10 picks…..ur picks are a disgrace……u have proved to indeed be the nephew of the infamous uncle ‘’dummy’’… fact over the past fortnight u have surpassed the ‘’dumb’’ one… ‘’fat’’ terms u are about the XXXL of ur daddy…….the difference is that u can make a comeback by going 25 up and 5 down over the next 30 games…. This wud reclaim ur true name of the ‘’yack’’…whereas ur uncle and ur daddy are stuck forever in their respective ‘’dumbness’’ and fatness’’…..


Sunday, November 15, 2015

NFL Week 10: Let's Fill Our Pockets With a Knot of Dollar Bills

We Will Be Eating All Our Oreo Cookies This Week
I spent a day and a half driving up and back to the JPO at the Borgata, so I don't have much insight-errrrrrr, time to tell my readers why I picked said(s) game. The trip itself, for what its worth, was somewhat successful considering I came back with about what I brought, and I bought in and did not cash in two different poker tournaments.

The Borgata did not disappoint, as usual, with their top of the line rooms, the best poker room in the country- in my humble opinion, and the usual chatter at the table from some random from Staten Island or Cape May, who gives you his insight in his Chris Russo like accent, about why the Mets lost the World Series, or how the Giants can stick around and make it a game this weekend with the Patriots.

In any case, good times.

The Legend and I are batting 56% thru 9 Weeks (24-19-2, 25 points) and its go time. The leader, "rounding again", is an unbelievable 84% (36-7-2, 37 points). There are over 1,700 entrants and only the Top 50 get paid. Realistically, with 8 weeks (40 picks) to go, Yours Truly probably needs to go somewhere in the 29-11 or 30-10 range to have a chance to cash. That would put us at about 65% for the year. First place money this year is estimated to be about $800,000.

Carolina at Tennessee (+5.5)
Marcus Mariota is pretty good for a rookie. And Tennessee's defense is better than advertised. The Panthers aren't one of the teams that will go undefeated, as they won't even represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (see my buddy Tony and I's $1,500 Arizona Cardinals 8/1 futures ticket to win the Super Bowl). Bet 5 units on the Titans getting the points, and bet half of that on the money line. Barking dog, straight up winner. 24-19 Titans, ruff-ruff.

New Orleans (PK) at Washington
Kirk Cousins is having a pretty good rookie season, all things considered. Just ask JP Flaim from the Sports Junkies. But Drew Brees is better, both defenses are suspect, and Sean Payton has access to better prescription drugs than Jay Gruden. Check mark Saints, Larry. 33-24 Saints

Jacksonville (+5.5) at Baltimore
I'm not sure how the Ravens are laying anyone points at this juncture in the season. They're lucky they're not 0-8 thru the halfway point in the season, and they're more beat up than Freddie Gray after a BPD joy ride. This is the easiest game on the board today. Consider borrowing money on top of the money you already have to bet on the Jags here. 27-20 Jags, ruff-ruff.

New England (-7) at New York Giants
Expect Tom Brady to continue his "middle finger tour" (as Mad Dog Radio's Adam Schein calls it), as he rolls into the Meadowlands to face the hated Giants, who statistically have the worst defense in the entire league. The Giants only success has come from their league leading (+11) give away/take away stat. Only problem is, the Patriots don't turn the ball over. Tom Brady might throw for 800 yards today. 47-23 Patriots.

Arizona at Seattle (-3)
This is Seattle's season, in a nutshell, Alice In Chains fan. Lose here to my Cardinals, and you can stick a fork in the Seahawks and their 12th man tree hugger fans. All of Larry's check marks would literally go to Arizona here, but this is just a feeler game for me, based on the before mentioned importance of it. Some dude named Thomas Rawls is going to have himself a game. 20-14 Seahawks.

Last Week               2-3 ATS
YTD                 24-19-2 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-12-15**follow this blog on twitter @sportsyack

Thursday, November 5, 2015

NFL Week 9: Happy Hump Week, Boys and Girls

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-4)
The Big Hairs Start'em Young
When the Raiduzz traveled to Cleveland in Week 3 and emerged with a 27-20 victory, it was their first win in the Eastern Time Zone in 16 tries, a streak that spanned 6 seasons. When the Steelers lost last week in Big Ben's return from injury, it was the first time in 16 games that Heinz Field had more fans in attendance with head lice than with mouth sores.

Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation has had a rough go of it with the injury bug. The before mentioned Roethlisberger went down in Week 3 at St. Louis, with an injury that looked like it could've been season ending. Unfortunately for the Big Hairs, last week's injury to Le'Vean Bell was season ending. Fortunately for them, they have a reliable and productive back up in DeAngelo Williams (102 yards/game in Bell's drug suspension absence), who last week picked up 71 yards on just 9 carries after Bell went down.

Props to Oakland. Last week's home win against a good NY Jets team was their "coming out" party of sorts, maybe letting the rest of the league know that they're for real. However, I don't like them based on the travel and their historic lack of success playing on the East Coast, and I don't like them coming off the high of beating the Jets.

Big Ben struggled in his debut last week, throwing 3 picks against undefeated and divisional foe Cincinnati. Expect him to rebound nicely against an Oakland defense that is 31st in the league against the pass. The home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 played. Heinz Field and all its fat and ugliness, will not be kind to Derek Carr and the upstart Raiduzz. 26-16 Steelers.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-6.5)
The 747s enter this contest with a lot of uncertainty at the Quarterback position. Ryan Fitzpatrick tore a ligament in his non throwing thumb, and as of Wednesday, Geno Smith was listed on the NY Jets injury report with "he's Geno Smith". Don't get caught up in the uncertainty of who will be under center for them this Sunday, as I truly believe Joe Namath's formerly alcohol soaked, fatty liver could get the job done in this spot.

The J-Men are coming off a rough two weeks in which they took the undefeated Patriots to the brink, in a game New York should've probably won, and then last week's trip out west to NoCal was an embarrassing display, for a team who had played good, sound football all season up until that point.

The Jets defense is still 3rd overall in yards allowed/per game. And a good defense will go a long way (see last week's Barking Dog winner we gave out with Denver, absolutely shutting down A-Rod and Green Bay), especially versus an offense that has struggled (Jax, 23rd overall).  Expect Chris Ivory to return to form after Oakland shut him down last week, and expect a Jets team to show up who will be looking to shake off last week's humiliation. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the AFC, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss. "I wanna kiss you. I couldn't care less about the Jets stru-guh-ling last week." 27-9 Jets.

St. Louis at Minnesota (-1.5)
Expect AP to Punish The Rams Defense on Sunday
If all goes as planned this weekend for the Purple People Eaters, they could be tied for first place in the NFC North by weekend's end; assuming of course, the Carolina Panthers win their 12th consecutive regular season game in a row.

Todd Gurley is definitely a factor in this one, leading the league in both rushing yards per attempt (6.1) and yards per game (115). But the Vikings' run D has saddled up recently against the run, yielding just 93 yards per game over their last 4 games, and Nick Foles and the Rams' air attack (my apologies to the phrase "air attack") has been pathetic... like beyond pathetic. Napoleon Foles has gone 6 straight games in which he has failed to throw for more than 200 yards. Not sweeeeeet.

The Vikings have covered 5 straight following an ATS win. Conversely, the Rams are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a SU win. AP has a monster day, and the Vikings lock this up by the start of the 4th quarter. 27-13 Vikings.

NYG at Tampa (+2.5)
Jameis Winston is finding his comfort zone at the NFL level. He hasn't turned the ball over in 4 weeks, and the Bucs are actually playing good, sound football. In fact, if that Three Mile Island type meltdown had not occurred at Fed Ex Field two weeks ago, the Buccos would be riding a 3 game heater.

As a "alcohol swilling and pill popping to cope" Redskins fan, I pay particularly close attention to the NFC East. And I'm here to tell you that the New York Football Giants are not very good. Eli Manning, tho with his two Super Bowl rings, is a capable quarterback and displayed it last week in the shootout with the Saints. But he still does have his Eli moments, and unfortunately for him and Giant Nation, the G-Men's defense is putrid.

In their last 4 games, the Giants have given up at least 27 points per, including last week's 52 point massacre they yielded to Who Dat Nation.  Overall, they're DFL for the season in yards allowed, giving up 427 yards per contest. That will not bode well against a Bucs' offense that has scored at least 23 points in their last 4 games, including 30 and 31 in two of those games.

The Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more, and Tom Coughlin and crew are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 on the back end of consecutive roadies.  Does your man take Lightning Bets? Consider it here. This game is trending towards a Giants' weekend in Beat Down City. 33-19 Bucs.

Philadelphia (--2.5) at Dallas
These two teams like to beat each other up in the other team's building. Over the last three seasons- including Week 2 of this year's campaign- these two teams have exchanged Ws, with the visiting team winning all 5 games played over that span. In fact, the road team in this series, is 7-1 ATS over the last 8.

Dallas has just sucked since Tony Romo went down. They've lost 5 in row since his injury, and have failed to cover the number in 4 of the 5. I think Philadelphia is the best team in just a dreadful division, and this is the week they begin to separate themselves from the sludge of the NFC East.

Considering Dallas has lost 5 in a row, look at what Philly has done over the same span. They went to the Meadowlands and beat an at the time undefeated, and pretty good Jets team, and then they absolutely pummeled the Giants and the Saints. Their only losses were a last minute loss on the road to divisional foe Washington, and last week's loss at undefeated Carolina. All and all, a respectable 5 weeks.

And for an Eagle team that struggled to run the ball earlier in the season, Holy Flucking Schmidt, Batman, for what they've done over the last 3 weeks. 177, 158, and 186 yards are their rushing totals over the past 3 games. That's not a good trend for a Dallas run D that has yielded 100 rushing yards or more 5 weeks in a row. NBC's Al Michaels might be able to speak in code regarding the total (44.5) late in the game, if the circumstances permit, but you won't have to worry about him chiming in on any Eagle bettors getting whored in the last few minutes. 30-17 Eagles. 

Last Week                 3-1-1 ATS
YTD                     22-16-2 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 11-5-2015**follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Thursday, October 29, 2015

NFL Week 8: "Heeeeeeeere's, Winners!"

Miami at New England (-8)
Its been a tough go of it for 'The Yack' on our attempt to secure a W in the Thursday night tilt (0-2 ATS) this season. But I can't turn this offer down, and I hope the only aspect of the "Things Happen in Threes" Rule here, are the number of pickles Ryan Tannehill throws Thursday night in Foxboro.

Please excuse me while I vomit after hearing another talking head tell me about the Culture Change that has happened in Miami since that Meathead Dan Campbell took over the helm. The Dolphins beat a horseshit Tennessee team, and an even horseshittier team in the Houston Texans (disregard my advice last week, to hop on the Texans ATS bandwagon.....sorry.....).

Tannehill and the Dolphins had the benefit of very poor tackling (three of Tannehill's TD completions included 40+ yards YAC), an 85 yard touchdown scamper by Lamar Miller, and a pick six by Miami's defense. By the end of the first half (41-0 Miami), I was wondering if the Sunday morning report was really meant to read, "Houston's entire team misses the team flight to Miami."

The Fins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC East, and they've failed to cover 6 straight in Foxboro. As far as handicapping goes, you should always lay heavy 'capping consideration with regard to the Head Coach/QB matchup. Hoodie/Pretty boy (greater than) Meathead/Tanneshill. 33-17 Patriots. 

Detroit (+5) at Kansas City
Two more huuuuurting teams make the trip across the pond to visit our former tax collectors in London. And if Roger Goodell and the NFL continue scheduling these types of games overseas, "horseshit NFL matchups" are going to become more common in England than yellow, crooked teeth.

Yeah, I really don't care if the Lions just fired half their coaching staff. It actually might be a good thing (see Miami's last two games vs bad teams following a coaching change). Alls I know is that the Kansas City Chefs are not very good, and regardless of how bad you may think the Lions are, neither one of these losers should be laying more than a field goal.

Andy Reid's Chefs are yielding 368 yards/per game (20th) and almost 25 points/per game (18th). They're also 25th in the league in passing yards allowed, which is a stat that a gun slinger like Matthew Stafford can exploit (can I use the term "gun slinger", MSNBC? If not, please send all complaints to The Chefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 overall. Its a last minute field goal game either way. I'll throw my boy @cublion a bone here, to help erase the misery of the Cubs sweep. 24-21 Lions.

NY Giants at New Orleans (-3)
Ride the heater, Saint fan. After the former bag wearers dropped their first three games of the 2015 campaign (two of which were to future playoff participants Arizona and Carolina), the Pope's favorite team has rattled off 3 wins in their last 4 contests. And I like them in this spot, on that heater, laying a smallish number to a team who is doing it with smoke and mirrors.

Congrats to Tom Coughlin and the G-Men. They finally beat the hated Dallas Cowboys after 5 straight losses to their divisional foe. But take a look at that game for a minute, and look at what the Giants are doing, or not doing over their last few. Dallas handed the G-Men 14 of their 27 points off of a pick 6 and a 100 yard kick off return. And the G-Men are getting absolutely gashed by their opponents' run game.

Dallas, unbelievably enough in a loss, had 233 yards on the ground. The week before, the G-Men gave up 158 on the ground to Philly, and the week before that, they gave up 124 to a very bad San Francisco team. And the Saints are running it. They've rushed for 463 yards over their last 4 games (115/per), including 183 on the ground last week at Indy. Consider Mark Ingram in all your Fan Duel and Draft King games.  The G-Men are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to N'Orleans. Who Dat, Who Dat, Who Dat....? Dat's Dem Saints. 29-20 Saints.

Seattle at Dallas (+6)
I'm going back to the "Seattle has some issues, and is NOT the Seattle team from the last few years" card. Although, I picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue, or to bet against Seattle the Thursday night they visited awful San Francisco, I'm going to focus on the same points when betting against them here.

For starters, I don't think Dallas is nearly as bad. Yes, Romo is out and they're on their second back up Quarterback, but they can still run the ball (7th) and they're better than average on the defensive side of the ball (8th). And I think they're due. Yes, I'm playing the due factor. Dallas has lost 4 straight since Tony Romo went down, but I think they stick around in this spot.

That maniac Greg Hardy will lead a Dallas defense that leads the league in knocking clipboards out of assistant coach's hands, as they face a Seattle offensive line that has allowed their QB to be sacked a league leading 31 times. Expect Dallas to go run heavy, on the heels of the before mentioned 233 yard performance in The Meadowlands. The S'Hawks are just 2-4-1 ATS on the year, and they've lost 3 straight in Dallas. If Matt Cassel doesn't throw pick sixes like its going out of style, Dallas sticks around and this game goes under the posted (41) total. The underdog in this match-up is 7-2 ATS over the last 9 head to heads.  Like Ronnie The Limo Driver says, "Due". 19-17 Seahawks.

Green Bay at Denver (+3)
Peyton Manning continues to shine brighter in his Direct TV and Papa John's commercials, than he does on the football field. Thru 6 games of the 2015 campaign, he's the leader of team who is 6-0, but his stat line reads like Trent Dilfer 2000. He's thrown just 7 TDs to 10 INTs, and his poor play has kept inferior teams around. But coming out of his bye week, I'm giving Quarterback Forehead a chance to resemble something close to what we've seen out of Manning in years past.

If there was ever a value play in ATS betting, this is the game. I get an undefeated team, with the league's #1 defense (allowing the fewest yards AND points per game), as a home dog on National TV, and my Quarterback is Peyton Manning. I've considered the caveat of Aaron Rodgers and his undefeated Packers being the opponent, but seriously, where do I sign up?

Like comparing two thoroughbreds in a Breeder's Cup Stakes Race, lets consider these teams last few opponents. I think its valid to state that Denver has had a tougher last few games against opponents who in the least are surging and/or have been competitive- Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota. The Packers last three contests were against San Diego, St. Louis, and San Francisco. Denver is 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Here's to NBC's Michele Tafoya interviewing a victorious Peyton Manning post game, as she tries to not look at that Mikhail Gorbachev on his noggin. 22-20 Broncos. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD             19-15-1 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-29-2015** Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Saturday, October 24, 2015

NFL Week 7: A Symphony of ATS Winners

Our first pick for Week 7 was San Francisco (+6.5), a big fat loser in the Thursday night game. This loss will be reflected in next week's results.

Expect Nick Foles To Be Sweeeet This Weekend
Cleveland at St. Louis (-5.5)
The Rams are coming off their bye. The Browns are coming off a heartbreaking home loss against Peyton Manning and a Broncos offense that continues to let inferior teams stick around. At some point, the porous Browns defense against the run (a league worst 149 yards/game) is going be the straw that breaks the camel's back. And the Rams, who have gone for 164 and 191 on the ground in their last two tilts, will be that straw this Sunday.

Josh McCown has looked pretty good over the last month, but was just average this past weekend (50% comp/2 INTs) against Denver's top defense. St. Louis' defense enters the contest 10th overall, and will help Jeff Fisher and the Rams cover their 4th straight game coming off their bye week. Blowout alert, Nancy Allen. 37-13 Rams.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Tennessee
Speaking of running the ball (and not being able to run the ball), the numbers in this one are UG-UG-ly for the Titans. Atlanta is the stingiest in the league, yielding a league best 78 yards/game on the ground, while the Titans are 28th giving up almost 130. And the Falcons, besides spreading the field with the likes of Jones, White, and Hankerson- can run the ball. Devonta Freeman is an absolutely beast, picking up almost 5 yards/carry, and as a team they're 4th best in the league at a 130 yard/game pace.

Tennessee is middle of the pack (16th) when it comes to running the ball, but I'd expect them to have problems up against the league's best front 7 against the run, with a rookie QB who is apparently hobbling and might not even play. Throw out Atlanta's short week loss at New Orleans, and the Falcons are averaging 32 points/per game. I like those numbers, and I like the Falcons on 10 days rest coming into this one laying a smallish number. Tennessee is 0-6-2 ATS following a SU loss in which they yielded 30 points or more. 34-19 Falcons. 

Houston (+4) at Miami
I Have This Fat Head On The Ceiling Above My Bed
The Texans were poo-poo the first month of the season, but as I've mentioned in prior posts, that was with the God awful Ryan Mallette as starting quarterback. But he's no longer under center and they are a completely different team with Brian Hoyer at the helm, and of course, with a healthy Arian Foster (see last week).

I've never been impressed with Ryan Tannehill. He's near the bottom- league wide, in QB rating (80.1), yards per attempt (6.7), and completion percentage (59.5). And that shouldn't scare a pretty descent Houston defense (11th overall). 

Back to Hoyer. I told you he should still be in Cleveland and would be starting over that midget Manziel if he was. Hoyer throws the ball downfield (8.19 yard/per attempt), he's completing almost 65% of his passes, and his TD to INT ratio isn't Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck- cough,cough- but its still pretty damn good, 8-2. Hop on the Houston ATS train now, people. The right guy is under center, and they're about to start their AFC South divisional run. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. Ruff-ruff, beeeotches. 28-24 Texans.

NY Football Jets (+9) at New England
Not rocket science in this one. The Jets run the ball well (1st), defend the ball well (1st), and maybe surprisingly to the uninformed, the Patriots haven't exactly beat the dog piss out of the Jets over the last couple years. In fact, the margin of victory between these two over their last four tilts (Jets 1-3 SU, 4-0 ATS) were 1,2,3, and 3.

Last week in a possible look ahead frame of mind, the Jets yielded a 13-10 halftime deficit to the battered Washington Red Clouds. But unlike Jay Gruden's halftime frat party, or whatever is going on during that 15 minutes, Todd Bowles and company made adjustments, and came out and pummeled Kurt Cousins and crew. The Jets front 7 is dominating, and they have two of the best corners in football. Look for New York to exploit New England's 22nd ranked run defense, with a lot of Chris Ivory (115 yards/per game, 5.5 yards/per carry).

I gave you a 9 point dog SU winner two weeks ago with Chicago at Kansas City (humble brag). The Jets have covered 7 straight vs the AFC.  Pound the Jets with the points, and consider a M/L play here too. "I love this game, Skippy!" 27-24 Jets, ruff-ruff. 

Last Week            2-3 ATS
YTD              17-12-1 ATS

*The Yack is in 339th place out of 1,700+, 7 points behind the leader*

*lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-22-2015* Follow this blog on Twitter @sportsyack

Saturday, October 17, 2015

NFL Week 6: This Picking ATS Winners Thing is Becoming So Easy

Coming off my first Westgate Contest (three years running) undefeated week, and a weekend in Vegas with The Legend, Beaver from Sterling, Bernie Sanders, and others, we're looking to continue the springboard with five more winners this Sunday.

After three rounds of golf and a couple afternoons at The Legend's abode, located in an "affluent, gated community" 20 minutes off the Vegas Strip, I am safe and sound back in the DMV, rested and refreshed for more climbing up the leaderboard. Going into this past weekend, "The Yack" was in about 700th place out of the 1,700 or so that entered the contest. The 4-0-1 weekend propelled us almost 400 spots up to 313th place, which is in the Top 20%. Our 15-9-1 record thru 5 weeks (including an impressive 6-1 ATS on our barking dogs-ruff-ruff!) gives us 15.5 points, 5.5 points behind the leader who has 21 points, after his sick 21-4 ATS opening 5 weeks. Onward and upward, beeeotches....

Washington (+6) at NY Jets
The Jets are coming off their bye week, after dismantling the Dolphins in the country of crooked teeth and wrong way driving. The Redskins are coming off a heart breaking loss to the possibly fraudulent Atlanta Falcons. Both teams have been very stingy defensively; the Jets (2nd) and the Redskins (6th) are playing it pretty tight to the vest.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Not a Member of The Dollar Shave Club
The Redskins- other than their short week trip up to this same stadium a few weeks ago- have been in virtually every game. Other than that Thursday night loss to the G-Men, they've been tied or held the lead in the fourth quarter of the other four games they've played.

The Jets are pretty one dimensional. Granted, their one dimension is in the form of Chris Ivory, who is posting a league leading 104 yards/game rushing, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Broadway Joe. He's 27th in the league in yards passing per (231), and like his counter part Mr. Cousins, tends to throw some picks (7 TDs, 6 INTs). On paper, this game is pretty even. See the QBs, the young coaches, each team's running game, and their before mentioned defenses. The series between these two franchises is 8 wins Washington, 2 wins NY Jets, and the Jets have never beaten the Redskins in the Meadowlands. 23-20 Redskins in OT, ruff-ruff.

Kansas City at Minnesota (-4)
The Chiefs are coming off their second fourth quarter collapse in the last four weeks, which led them to losing their 4th game in a row. To compound this debacle, was the fact that they've also lost Jamal Charles for the year. Rumor has it that Andy Reid is looking into getting gastric bypass surgery that can remove excess horseshit coaching genes/cells, while allowing him to continue pounding cream filled chocolate donuts during film sessions.

Other than their head scratching Week 1 loss to the nubby 49ers, the Purple People Eaters have been pretty solid this season. They took care of business against both Detroit and San Diego, and hung around and covered at Denver prior to going on bye this past weekend. And now they get a team who can't get out of its own way.

The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Adrian Peterson's 5.0 yards/per carry, coupled with the Chiefs 27th ranked defense against the pass, should allow for usual game manager Teddy Bridgewater to look like Fran Tarkenton in this one. The Chiefs debacle will continue, and Andy Reid will start hearing the whispers. In between bites of his Philly cheese steak, of course. 31-13 Vikings.

Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
Josh McCown has been on a bit of a heater lately. He put up 356 yards and 2 touchdowns two weeks ago at San Diego in a tough 3 point loss, and then last week he set a Browns franchise record when he threw for 457 yards in Cleveland's overtime win at Baltimore. Those numbers are all fine and dandy against San Diego's 15th ranked defense and Baltimore's 24th, but McCown will be in all sorts facing Denver's #1 ranked defense this Sunday.

Everyone (including this guy) is just waiting for Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense to explode. Considering their miracle comeback against the Chefs in week 1 was capped off by a defensive fumble return for a touchdown, the Bronocs offense has yet to clip the 30 point mark in any of their first five games. In fact, they're averaging a pedestrian 22 points/per contest.

I think this is the week, tho. McCown is playing over his head, and is due to start playing like Josh McCown, and the Brownies are yielding a league's worst 5.05 yards/per carry, giving up 149 yards/per game on the ground. This should help both a struggling Denver run game, and their senior citizen future HOF quarterback, whose looking for his first big game of the 2015 campaign.

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October, and have covered 4 straight against the Browns. This might not be a blowout, but I think the Browns will never be in this game. 27-14 Broncos.

Houston (Pick'em) at Jacksonville
Fantasy Owners Will Be Pleased With This Guy on Sunday
The Texans are not very good. And you should never bet on not very good teams on the road, especially when they're close to almost laying points. But I'm laying out a caveat here, as the Texans will turn to who I think is a better than average Quarterback in Brian Hoyer, and they'll have Arian Foster back for the second consecutive week. And I think this is a HUGE under the radar element of this game.

For one, Brian Hoyer moves the ball. He did so when in Cleveland, and if not for some homeless guy who told the Browns' owner who to draft, Hoyer would still be in Cleveland and would be starting. And Foster is just a horse. He lines up as a back, he lines up in the slot, he's literally all over the field when the Texans are on offense, and he's hard to defend.

The Jags are giving up 29 points/per game, second worst in the league only to Tampa's 29.6. This, coupled with their below average overall defense (19th), will yield yards and points to a Houston team, who has yo-yo'ed between Ryan Mallett and Hoyer, putting up over 300 yards/game in the air (4th overall in the entire league). The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 match ups between these two. Maybe the worst game on the card this weekend, from a fan's/viewing point of view, but I don't discriminate against pigs when it comes to big fat ATS winners. 24-20 Texans.

Carolina at Seattle (-7)
I like betting on teams the week after heartbreaking, sometimes meltdown losses. Unless, of course, they're named the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm not sure what happened to the Seahawks last weekend in Cincinnati during the 4th quarter, but it kept my Week 5 record blemish free (got the push), and it will provide the fire that lights their asses this weekend.

Carolina is the same Carolina team that they've been for the last few years. Good, but not great. And Newton is a good game manager, whose stats reflect as much. So when it comes to big boy games, they fold like cheap suits (See the Panthers, last year in the playoffs at Seattle). I realize that you can only play your schedule, but the Panthers 4-0 record is a bit deceiving. None of their first four opponents have winning records, and they were one play away from a home loss against 2-4 New Orleans. (Yes, the Seahawks were one play away from losing to (at the time) 0-3 Detroit, but don't let this fact get in the way of my argument. Spoken like a true liberal, right?)

Give me the Seattle home field advantage, mix in the league's #1 ranked rushing offense (142 yards/per game), and complete that trifecta with Seattle's Top 5 ranked defense. Generally speaking, that's a recipe for an ATS winner. Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the S'Hawks. 23-10 Seahawks. 

Last Week                   4-0-1 ATS
YTD                         15-9-1 ATS

**lines are from the Westgate Sportsbook, 10-15-2015**Follow this blog on Twitter, @sportsyack