Thursday, December 10, 2009

NFL Week 14- Turning the Corner

I’m not sure whose last two weeks have been worse, Tiger’s or ours? Let’s see- we’ve gone 1-6 picking against the number during that time period, and Tiger has pretty much pissed away half of his $1 billion fortune. Ok, so maybe Tiger’s has been a little bit worse, but nevertheless- we realize we need to get our shit together, and we are guaranteeing a huge week. Unleashing hell….

Pittsburgh at Cleveland +10
Newsflash: Pittsburgh sucks, ok. And we realize Cleveland does as well, but lets get real for a second. Can someone tell me the last time a professional football team “riding” a 4 game losing streak, has to go on the road during a short work week, and is in a spot in which they’re laying a double digit number? The answer is probably never.

The team loved by the big hair, big trucks, and big asses has some real problems this year. We’ve talked about the Superbowl hangover all year. Throw in Big Ben’s on and off the field problems, some locker room finger pointing, Troy Polomalu’s hair injury, and Mike Tomlin’s really motivating “unleash hell” comments, and you’ve got a .500 football team.

Cleveland has been somewhat competitive as of late. They played Cincinnati tough in a loss, posted 37 in a loss at Detroit, and 23 last week in a loss versus the Chargers.

Try this on for size: since 1998, NFL teams who are getting 10 or more points, in a game played after December 1st, are 74-26-5 ATS. We couldn't make that shit up. Or could we? It doesn’t matter; Browns cover.


Washington/Oakland Under 37.5
Other than the fact that you could tune into this game, and be witness to the first NFL game in history to feature two scrotums sitting in the respective owners suites, we’d advise you to spare the boredom, and catch up on all your Tivo’d episodes of Poker After Dark.

This total number looks suspiciously low to us. Both teams are coming off totals north of 50, and the Redskins-who were big Under players for the longest of times, have gone over 5 of their last 6. We advise you Martingale this one, and catch up on all the 'Skins Under' money you've lost over the the past 6 weeks.

Redskins will be tired of scoring more than 20, tired from the cross-country trip, but will be man enough to keep the quarterback with the real long last name in check. 13-10, some scrotum’s team wins.



Denver +7 at Indy
Look inside the numbers for a minute, and you’ll find that over the course of their 12-0 start, the Colts have only played one team who sports a Top 10 defense (Baltimore, ranked 10th, in a game the Colts should’ve lost). The list of teams they’ve played that defend the lower third of the NFL (Tenn twice, Hou twice, San Fran) goes on and on and on. In this spot, they get the 3rd ranked defense in Denver, in a game in which Peyton and crew will secure their first ‘L’.

Denver has looked very good since their mid season hiccup They boat raced the Giants in prime time, and then took care of business last week in a game they should’ve won, and did so with ease. They’ve also hit their stride on the ground.

Averaging over 125 rushing yards per game, the Broncos posted 138 against NYG, and a nice 245 last week versus Kansas City. That won’t set well with an Indy defense who is ranked 18th in the league versus the run.

We advise you to push all your chips towards the middle of the table, ala Jim Fassel 2K. Denver covers, wins outright, and leaves New Orleans as the last undefeated team.



San Diego at Dallas –3
Wade Phillips press conference the other day was the worst assault we’ve seen on a fat guy by other fat red neck guys, since Ned Beatty took it in the pooper on the set of ‘Deliverance’. We like the way he (kind of) stood up for his team, and we think his team will too.

Tony Romo threw for almost 400 yards last week, on 41 of 55, with 3 touches and no picks. How did they lose? Well, they gave up a screen pass that went for almost 80, they allowed a punt to be returned for 6, and offensively- they didn’t run the ball (45 total rushing yards).

The Chargers have won 7 straight coming in, and Norv Turner- of all people, is one of the silliest dudes to coach against the number in December (10-2 ATS, last 12). But they're in a bad spot here, on the road, against a team who is sick of hearing it.

This is Dallas’ season. Lose here, and it’s over Johnny. In fact lose here, and they might lose out. Expect the Boys to get back to how they butter their bread- on the ground, and they catch the Bolts slacking, on the heels of a back-to-back roadie. Boys, big.


Last Week
1-4

YTD
24-21-1

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