Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Value Betting the 2010 PGA Championship

Brendon deJonge is going to win the 2010 PGA Championship.

In a year in which the majors have produced two consecutive winners, whose first ever PGA Tour wins were majors- Graham McDowell (US Open at Pebble Beach) and Louis O. (Open Championship at St Andrews), we'd like to make a case for the Hokie who could complete the trifecta.

For starters, his odds are appealing. (125/1) for a guy who has more Top 3 finishes than Tiger Woods this year, and just as many as the likes of Mickelson, Furyk, Els, and McIlroy. Secondly, he has tripled his earnings from what he made in 2009 ($536,000 ) to what he has made this year ($1.82 million), currently 26th on the PGA Tour money list.

The big guy from Zimbabwe has made 9 consecutive cuts entering the year's final major and he's 5th on Tour in the All Around ranking (combination of Top 8 accuracy/scoring stats). Also, the year's final major has a history of producing first time and/or no name winners over the years (Beem, Micheel, Yang).

Getting this Hokie at 125/1 is great value; almost as good as the (+2.5) his alma mater's football team (lock) is getting September 6th, against "Smurf Nation" at FedEx Field.

K.J. Choi (80/1)

How does 46th, Cut, Cut, 47th, and 52nd sound for this guy's last 5 events played? F**king awesome, if you're a Nats fan needing over 70.5 wins, when they're stuck on 49 curly dubyas, and they're currently down 9-4 in the 7th to the Marlins. #FML

Honestly, one of our favorite guys (Choi), finished just 2 shots out of a playoff, the last time a major was played at this golf course. Yeah, our asses are chapped on the Nats right now, but this is not a classic case of chasing money. We really do like the price.

Adam Scott (50/1)

His career resume includes wins at both the Players' Championship and the Tour Championship, and his swing has been compared to Tiger's (Scott did work with Butch Harmon), but he has won no majors. He did win this year in Texas, but has done little else, otherwise.

So why do we pick him? The same reason we're taking a flyer on Choi: horses for courses.

Scott had a good showing at the '04 PGA played at Whistling Straights, finishing just 3 shots out of the playoff. Couple that stat with (possibly, just possibly) catching Scott on a bender, in terms of him "grooving it". Although his T-9 last week at Bridgestone might not seem that significant, the dude did 'bookend' his Friday and Saturday rounds, with a 66 on Thursday and a 67 on Sunday. If he can find 4 days of consistent scoring instead of 2, getting this Aussie at this price is like stealing.

Please follow Sportsyackontap on twitter @sportsyack and @JudgePatrick

Odds courtesy of Bodog

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