Thursday, October 7, 2010

NFL Week 5: Betting with Our Heads

Tennessee at Dallas (-7)
"They are who we thought they were!", was the famous post game presser shout from former Arizona coach Dennis Green. And here at the Sportsyack, the Titans are not who we thought they were. Not only do they account for one of the Yack's only 2 losses ATS this year (shameless plug), but they've played very sloppy, non Jeff Fisher like, football.

Three weeks ago, they turned the ball over 7 times in a home loss to the Steelers. Last week they were outscored at home 13-3 in the final quarter and a half, in their home loss to the Broncos. Potential championship teams don't pull those shenanigans.

The Dallas Cowboys, unfortunately for the Redskins fans here at the Yack, are who we think they are. They're a pretty good football team, who will be in the conversation come January. And following their bye week, which included a team dinner in which Dez Bryant picked up the $55,000 tab (or how Dez's mom would equate it, 325 blow jobs worth), Dallas should feel nice and refreshed.

Tony Romo, as much as we like to make fun of that little douchebag, is throwing for over 300 yards per game, and completing almost 70% of his passes. The Cowboys, the last 5 years following a bye week, are 5-0 ATS. Dallas wins 27-14.

Kansas City (+7) at Indianapolis
When is the public perception of the Colts going to wane? Can we be the first ones to tell you that the Colts are not a very good team. In fact, they borderline suck. They just lost to the hapless Jaguars for Christ's sake, and their defense is atrocious!

Ranked 24th overall in the league, 29th against the run, the Colts defense is giving up almost 24 points per game, and is ripe for Jamaal Charles and the upstart Chiefs to run the ball right down their throats.

Kansas City is 3rd in the league in rushing, which accounts for almost 161 yards per game. The before mentioned Charles, has a disgusting 7 yards per attempt rushing average. And on the otherside of the ball, Kansas City's defense, which is more silent on radar than a U.S. drone attack on some Pakistani village, is second only to the Steelers in points allowed, at 12.7 per game.

A low scoring affair, the Colts may win this game, but definitely not in blowout fashion. Take the Chiefs and the points.

Green Bay(-2.5) at Washington
Let me tell you real quick what kool aid drinking Redskin fan will say to himself, to justify betting on the Skins this week. "But, umm, the Packers have no running game, man!"

The Packers are one of the teams in the conversation, to be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this year. The Redskins are old, not consistent (week to week or quarter to quarter), and they'll end up being a .500 team at best.

We're not sure of this point spread. Sunday night, when the brains at the Sportsyack went thru the docket of games, we predicted this game would be about a 4.5 point spread. We feel the Redskins national TV game win last week vs the Eagles may have something to do with it, possibly accounting for the overlay money coming in on them.

The Redskins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in October. In the last 6 meetings between these two teams, the Pack is 5-0-1 ATS. Redskin haters Papa Lurch and EB of the Sports Junkies will be proven correct, and will have the majority of their listeners eating crow come Monday morning. 31-19 Packers.

Last Week 3-0
YTD 9-2-1

Points spreads found at

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