Thursday, October 21, 2010

NFL Week 7: Helmet to Helmet Winners

We'll Bitch First, Then Give Winners.
What a weird weekend of football. Not only did it provide a weekend for knee jerk reactors, who will also be the first ones bitching next Monday morning, when some zebra fucks up their 2 team parlay with one of them "new flags", but it also featured two gambling snafus, one that helped us, and one that didn't.

The first one involved the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game. With just 1:25 left in the game, the Steelers had the ball inside the red zone with an 11 point lead. The Sportsyack was on the Brownies +13.5. Rather than run the ball and force Cleveland's time out hand, Mike Tomlin opted to throw it to the end zone. Touchdown Steelers, Sportsyack loses. #FML

We realize that even a field goal would've uncovered us, but honestly, why are they passing the ball in that situation? Do you think it was just to FUCK yours truly? We think so.....

Secondly, in what ended up being a more positive result, I was on the Raiders for what I thought was +7. Our "man", who I happened to be in the same company with watching the late afternoon football, informed me late in the contest that the line actually closed at Raiders +9. Ok. That worked for us, as Oakland ended up losing by 8.

In any case, we ended up 2-2, based on the lines we posted Friday, and we did hit the Rams, WHICH WE DID ADVISE to bet the moneyline on. The Rams, getting 9, was an easy straight up winner, versus a not very good Charger team.



And Away We Go....

(Jax +9.5)
at Kansas City
Jacksonville is a hard team to figure. They got destroyed on national TV, and looked inept. They spot Buffalo a 10 point lead, then come back and put 36 up and win. They beat the Colts in OT, yet got kicked around by both Philly and San Diego, but they beat what appears to be a descent Bronco team.

The Chiefs are not who we think they are. Some folk in the "know" want to label these guys as AFC contenders, but not so fast, Arpoc. This team was 4-12 last year, and all of a sudden they're laying almost double digits?!?

Quite frankly, they haven't beaten anybody who is worth a shit. In fact, the combined record of the teams they've beaten (San Diego, Cleveland, and Frisco) is 4-14. Not impressive.

The Chiefs have lost two straight. The Jags will rebound from that embarrassment on Monday night. Jacksonville has covered 7 out of their last 10 versus the AFC West, and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a double digit dog. A low scoring affair, we like the Jags.



St.Louis at (Tampa Bay-2.5)
This is not a sexy game. However, when we find a team (Rams) who have lost 15 of their last 18 road games dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign, and they're on the road getting less than a field goal, we're probably going to bet on their opponent.

We like Tampa to rebound from the thumping they took last week to NOrleans, and we expect a let down from the Rams, who are riding the high of winning a game in which they were almost double digit dogs. Bet against the rookie quarterback on the road, whose playing a team who is tied (with your Washington Redskins) for 3rd in the league in the +/- category for turnovers (+5).

If the straight up wager isn't good enough for your degenerate blood, consider a Bucs/Under parlay or teaser. The Bucs have played 8 straight unders versus NFC opponents.



San Fran at (Carolina +2)
Last week we asked how an 0-5 team (San Fran) was laying a touchdown(which actually ended up being 9 points). This week we stumbled across this head scratcher, as a now(1-5) Frisco team, makes the dreaded west coast to east coast trip, to play a 1pm eastern starting time game, AND they're laying points.

We realize Carolina is no great shakes at (0-5), but we like them in this spot. Coming off their bye, John Fox and the Panthers have won 4 out of their last 5. Also, Frisco has been awful vs Carolina, covering just 3 times in the last 16 games these two have played. Not to sound like an oxymoron, but rarely will we say, "we love" a team who is (0-5), but we love the Panthers.




NYGiants at (Dallas-3)
The Giants are 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 versus Dallas. The last time these two teams hooked up in the Jerry Dome, the Giants won a 33-31 shootout, and Peyton's younger brother vandalized the visiting team's locker room.

We like Dallas this week, for the same reasons we gave in our last post; the NFC East is a very average division, and the division winner probably won't eclipse the double digit win total. Also, Dallas is too damn good (statistically), to be a 1-5 team (if they were to lose).

Dallas' offense is 3rd in the entire league in yards gained. Their defense is 4th in the entire league in yards allowed. And seriously, if this team didn't commit one penalty after another (spare us the "if" argument, yeah we know) they'd be 3-2, possibly 4-1.

"Hillbilly Jim" Phillips has his feet to the fire big time. This is a national TV game, versus a divisional opponent who they despise, whose Quarterback went "magic marker" on Jerry's walls last year, similarly to how a plastic surgeon goes "magic marker" on Jerry's face, prior to making those youthful incisions.

Dallas will boat race the Giants Monday night, road dogs Eagles and Redskins will probably lose, and the NFC East will officially become a 'crap'shoot.



Last Week 2-2
YTD 11-7-1


Point spreads courtesy of www.wagerline.com

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