Thursday, November 18, 2010

NFL Week 11: Wigs, Hair, and Boy Do We Like Roadies

(Buffalo+5) at Cincy
Ochocinco spent part of the week tweeting subtle digs at his Quarterback Carson Palmer. Our own Judge Patrick, who for those of you who don't know, resembles Carson Palmer, spent part of the week using Twitter to stalk hot, local sports anchors.
The Bengals have lost 6 straight coming into this contest. The Bills notched their first win last week, and we've liked the way they've played for the last month (3-0-1 ATS). Marvin Lewis and crew, in their last 13 as a favorite of 3.5-7 points, are 1-12 ATS. Give me a shot and a beer, Luke Russert. Bills win 16-13.

(Houston+6.5) at NY Jets
We love when we're on to the sucker lines that Vegas puts out, which the general public then blows their load on. This is one of them. Newsflash, Jet fan, we're 11 weeks into this campaign, and you're team is just 'ok'. Rex Ryan and his "F" bombs and reality TV show, have helped mask what in reality is the 5th or 6th best team in the AFC.
A home loss to the Pack, and then back to back road wins in OT (first time ever an NFL team pulled that off) to less than average teams who out played them(Det,Clev). We like the Texans to rebound from that rebound on that Hail Mary last week down in Jax. Matt Schaub's last 4 weeks read 90 for 135, 1087 yards, 5 TD vs 3 picks, for a passer rating of 98.4.
Rex Ryan dons a bozo wig, and wears clown shoes to get a chuckle out of the NY media. As with the Bills, consider the ML here. Texans

(Baltimore -11) at Carolina
Baltimore is certainly not the 5th or 6th best team in the AFC, in fact they could be 1st or 2nd in their conference. The Panthers are a total mess. At 1-8, John Fox is handing the Quarterbacking duties over to a guy who was changing diapers with duties in them just a week ago. Things are so bad in Carolina, that the super talented, railroaded by all his prior coaches, Devin Thomas, can't even get on the field. Can you believe that shit, Lavar?!?
This is a huge number, but we feel pretty good about it. The Ravens have extra rest from their Thursday night tilt 11 days ago. They're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Its a sad end to what has been a great run for Fox in Carolina, but this game is going to be ugly, and this season will be Fox's last. Ravens.

(Indy +4)
at New England
Neither one of these teams will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. No way, no how. Both of these teams are missing a piece or two to the championship puzzle, and there is NO FREAKING WAY the Pats should be laying this many here.
New England has been up and down all year, and that's why we've avoided them or bet against them in certain spots. Getting pollaxed at Cleveland, and then coming back to dismantle Pittsburgh in Big Hair Nation was impressive. But they're still not the Pats of old.
New England is only 18th in total offense, and a horribly shocking 29th in total defense. The Colts still are a top 5 offense, and will manage Tom Brady and his Justin Bieber haircut, as they have in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Quite frankly, if New England was getting the 3.5 or 4 here, we'd be on the other side of the equation. Having said that, give us Peyton Manning and points 8 days a week. Colts

Last Week 2-2
YTD 19-14-1

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