Saturday, November 27, 2010

NFL Week 12: When In Vegas, We Stay At The Wynn. Get It?

(Jacksonville +7) at NY Giants
This game sits on what Vegas calls a "key number", which is one of two numbers(the other being 3) that Vegas concerns itself with, when posting point spreads. The reason its of concern, is because almost 15% of NFL games(according to Doc's Sports Journal) end in a margin of either 3 and 7. And the reason these point spreads concern Vegas, is because if they go up or down a half point either way, or if worse- they move a full point wrapping around 3 or 7 (2.5 to 3 to 3.5, for example), the wise guys will pounce on the "middle" bet, which gives them(the bettor) an opportunity to win both sides. This game opened at 8.5 at most Vegas sports books, and obviously has since taken heavy money on Jax.

Having explained all that non-sense, the Giants are back to what we thought they were at the beginning of the season; an average at best football team, who has concerns on the defensive side of the ball. They've lost 2 straight entering this contest, and they've only covered 3 of their last 11 home games.

The Jags have won and covered 3 straight. They're getting great play from Quarterback David Garrard, who has had a QB rating of 120 or better in 5 of 9 games he's started this year. He's thrown 17 TD's vs. 10 INT's, for almost 1,700 yards. The Jags are also rushing for over 135 yards/game.

Go ahead and get crazy here, Arpoc. Take the Jags, and "fuck it, I'll do it live!", throw in an extra play/parlay/teaser or all, on (Jags/Over44).


(Minnesota -1) at Washington
We hate to pick against our beloved Redskins, but we have a feeling this game is going to be a semi-rout, not quite Eagles MNF, but nonetheless an ass whuppin'.

The Vikings, in our humble opinion, were the best team in football last year. Yeah, they lost to the Saints, who went on to win the Super Bowl, but we still feel they were the creme de la creme. This season has pretty much been dreadful, but they pretty much have the same parts they had last year, and we expect a Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants like inspired performance, for their new coach.

The Redskins are beat up, and still have questions on the O-Line. They did play some inspired football last week, rallying around their MASH unit, and prevailing in Tennessee. However, this is the same team who lost to Detroit, won one of the ugliest games we've ever seen in Chicago, and got pollaxed by a rookie quarterback in St. Louis.

For Redskin fan, unfortunately, this is your typical "get fired up again after a nice win in Tennessee, only to be punched in the stomach" loss the following week. Vikings, 30-13.




(After watching that awesome tribute to #21, how many of those hits would Pussy Goodell let him get away with today? Probably not many.)



St.Louis at (Denver-3.5)
The rookie has done ok for himself in St. Louis, but he has yet to win a game on the road, and this week's outcome will be no different. Denver has lost 5 of its last 6 games, and apparently has resorted to video cheating to help garner an edge. File that under 'the apple didn't fall too far from that dick who wears a hoodie with the sleeves cut off'.

Kyle Orton is having one hell of a season, in what is an otherwise disappointing season for the Broncos. His season line reads 17 TDs to only 6 INTs, for over 3,000 yards, completing over 62% of his passes.

Expect the apple to come out of the tunnel with a big fat chip on his shoulder, and the Broncos will win this game in a rout.


Thanksgiving 2-1 ATS

YTD 25-16-1 ATS


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