Monday, November 15, 2010

Not Just A Homer Pick: Redskins Win Outright

Philadelphia at (Washington +3.5)
Ever since the point spread came out over a week ago, we've been scratching our heads over Philly being a 3 point favorite in tonight's Monday night tilt against our beloved (black and white players, Doc) Redskins. With less than 12 hours until toe meets leather, the line has moved to 3 and a hook.

Our opinion on this line was confirmed to me this past weekend with a conversation I had with "The Legend", former gov't mole (allegedly) and current Las Vegas resident. The Legend confirms that the talk amongst the sports bettors and at the poker tables these past two weeks in the Las Vegas "parlors", is that of the dumpster fire that is the Washington Redskins.

In other words, the media debacle which was Shanahan benching McNabb, and Shanny's subsequent Twilight Zone like press conference, in which he dropped lines that included "cardiovascular endurance", has masked what is a much closer game on paper than what Vegas and the betting public have determined it to be.



With that being said, which is (perception)a legitimate argument when handicapping this game, lets talk about actual tangibles.

#1, the Redskins went into Philly 6 weeks ago, and pretty much kicked their ass. I'm not sure there has been two opening drives, like the ones the Redskins produced in this game, since maybe the 1991 Championship season.

Secondly, the Redskins- be it only 3 drives that he was in the game, contained Michael Vick. The first two drives went 3 and out, 4 and out. Vick didn't complete a single down field pass, and he only scrambled 3 times for 17 yards. All of his completions were dump offs to LeSean McCoy, one of which McCoy turned into a 31 yard (YAC) pick up.

Bottom line, from the Redskins defensive perspective, and to anybody that watched the same game we did, Vick was not being effective when he went out with the rib injury. On the other hand, Kevin Kolb came in and almost immediately began moving the ball down the field, eventually giving the Eagles a chance to win.

On the Redskins side of the ball, the before mentioned opening two drives were very impressive. Granted, McNabb limped down the stretch, but the damage had already been done to the Eagles. Not to mention, the Redskins rushed for 169 yards that day. Clinton Portis is still out, and Ryan Torain could still be nursing a hammy, but we feel the bye week will have done him and the offensive line good.

The Skins are coming off a bye. They've already beat Philly once. We think the McNabb/Shanahan saga was blown a little out of proportion, as the 24/7 news cycle will tend to do with a story like this one, but we feel McNabb will respond nevertheless, like he's done in the past.

The Eagles have only covered 1 of their last 5 versus the Redskins. Plus, with the exception of St. Louis, the Redskins have played tight games all season. We've been saying all year that the NFC East is a crap shoot, and that none of the four teams are really setting the world on fire.(See Cowgirls/Glee-men tilt from yesterday, Glee-man fan) Look for McNabb to respond to his critics, and for Shanahan to be back in the DMV's good graces by Tuesday morning. 26-17 Redskins.



Point spread courtesy of www.wagerline.com

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Yesterday: 2-1 ATS
YTD: 19-13-1

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