Sunday, December 19, 2010

NFL Week 15: A Stocking Full of Winners

Good times! Yours truly went 1-3-1 ATS last weekend, the Caps keep losing, more turmoil in Ashburn, the Fridge is shown his wobbling papers, and the Wizards had the Heat on the ropes last night, but shit the bed down the stretch. Good times!

Like Tom Cruise's character said in The Color of Money, "It's like a nightmare, isn't it? It just keeps getting worse and worse."

Hang in there, DC fan. Things will get better, I promise.(promise is greek for hope) And to start off this Christmas week, I've put together a plethora of Week 15 NFL winners. So gather around the tree, pour yourself a glass of egg nog, and then turn on the TV during what is supposed to be family time. Are you ready for some football?!?!

(Buffalo+5) at Miami
The Dolphins and Tony Soprano are a tough team to figure. They're a 7-6 team in which 6 of their 7 wins have come on the road. In fact, their 6-1 road record is tops in the NFL, tied only with Pittsburgh. Their home record is so abysmal, Dolphin ownership has lobbied the NFL to allow them to play all 16 of their games next year on the road.

The Bills have been competitive in almost every game they've played since about mid October. During that span they've gone 3-5, but have covered 7 of those 8 games. We know this, because we're degenerate gamblers, and this information is important to us.

The Dolphins are scoring 14 points on average, in the friendly confines of Sun Life Stadium (what a gay name for a football venue). The Bills have covered 5 straight versus AFC opponents. This game goes something like 20-17, or 14-10. Bills.

New Orleans/Baltimore (OVER 43.5)
We like points here. For starters, Baltimore's defense hasn't been killer, since Ray Lewis was running around in an orange jumpsuit, lying to Atlanta's finest about who stabbed who. Their 14th ranked pass defense is not going to make Drew Brees and the Saints blink. Coming into this contest, the Saints have scored 30 points or more, in 5 straight games.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense is not too shabby, but outside of the 72 degree temperatures of the Superdome, they've gotten a little complacent as of late. (Yielding 27 points, almost 400 total yards, and losing the time of possession battle to Dallas, 35-25. And against Cincy, 30 points and losing time of possession 33-27). This game will feature a lot of shotgun formations, and weather will not be a factor.OVER 43.5

(NY Jets+4) at Pittsburgh
The New York football Jets are a wounded animal. They got their balls beat in on national TV two weeks ago, only to follow that up during "Tripgate", in a loss to the before mentioned Miami Dolphins.

Big Hair, Big Ass, and Big Truck Nation has long ago forgotten about what an asshole their quarterback is. To his credit, Big Dumb Ben is walking wounded. The dude has been playing through the pain of a broken nose and a sprained ankle, and although he may not be smart enough to understand the concept of "no means no", he and the Steelers have toughened out 4 straight wins.

The Jets need to stop the bleeding. Rex Ryan may have yielded to Bruce Boudreau, when it comes to worse potty mouth on an HBO sports reality show, but he won't yield to a Steeler team whose pulled a couple rabbits out of their hats (@Buff,@Balt) in the last few weeks.

The Jets have covered 6 straight in games played on natural grass. On the flip side, the Steelers have loss 4 straight ATS, in games following a SU win of 14 points or more (God, we're losers for knowing that). We like the Jets to win, but love getting the points even more. 23-22 Jets.

Last Week 1-3-1 ATS

YTD 31-21-3 ATS

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