Friday, January 7, 2011

NFL Playoffs: A Four Pack of Winners

Sportsyack's NFL prognosticating sported a 35-25-3 ATS record for the year. Not too shabby. Ten games over .500 is, as NBC's Gary Koch once said about an infamous putt Tiger Woods struck on the 17th green at Sawgrass, "better than most."

With the playoffs upon us, we're utilizing every handicapping tool at our disposal. So in the spirit of the playoffs, and the spirit of a new PGA Tour season, like Tiger Woods parked in a Perkins parking lot, lets get ready to crush it!

New Orleans(-10) at Seattle
This game hurts. We've made a living out of finding value in home teams getting points, and here we go- of all places, the first round of the NFL playoffs, and we're punting an opportunity to get a division winner, at home, getting double digits.

Bottom line, Seattle is awful. Not to go overkill, and we realize its the popular talking point of those who are paid to talk, but the fact that they're in the playoffs is an absolute fucking atrocity.

Ranked 28th offensively, and 27 defensively, Pete Carroll's highly paid USC teams could've given the 2010 Seahawks a run for their money. The 10 points don't scare us, the 12th man doesn't scare us, as we expect and hope (for Roger Goodell's embarrassment) that this turns into an absolute boat race. And based on Seattle's "history", it most likely will go that way.

In all of Seattle's 9 losses(what a joke), they didn't just lose, that got their fucking asses kicked. To include a 34 point loss at home to the playoff-less Giants, and a 30 point loss to the playoff-less Raiders, the Seahawks average margin of loss was by almost 21 points. Like the broad on "South Park" says, "Wha-Wha-What!?!!?!"

Listen, we're not too chubby about New Orleans ATS record vs. teams with losing records (1-8). However, 11-5 is still 11-5, 4 games better than Seattle. The Saints beat Seattle earlier in the season 34-19, and the defending Super Bowl champs aren't going to lose this first round scrimmage. 27-13 Saints.

NY Jets at Indy(-2.5)
It was a rough final month of the season for Sex Ryan and the Jets. Between Trip-gate, foot fetish-gate, and an ass whippin the first week of December by New England in front of a national audience, lets just say they've had better months.

They did play well over the last 3 weeks of the season. Starting with a nice road win at Pittsburgh on Dec. 19th, the Jets followed that up with a tough shootout loss at Chicago, and concluded the regular season with last weekend's blowout of the Bills, who had actually played pretty well, the second half of the season.

And then there is Indy, just been rolling along, Peyton Manning and his MASH unit. Dude has been throwing touchdowns to guys this season, who just last year were homeless on the streets of Columbus, Ohio, just looking for a second chance.

Manning has had another great season. 33 TDs, vs 17 picks, and a 92 passer rating. However, the most important stat of all, and why the Colts will get it done here: the Colts have only yielded 16 sacks. In fact for all NFL starters- Peyton, along with his kid brother Eli, were sacked the fewest amount of times of all QBs.

Our final burn, Romie: The Jets lose, and all the hype that was "Hard Knocks" and Rex Ryan's "rah-rah" horseshit sprinkled with F-bombs will be all for not. In fact, Jet fan, don't be surprised if more foot fetish/weird ass shit comes to the surface, and becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back, and costs Ryan his job. Simplified: Peyton vs Mark Sanchez and his 75 passer rating won't even be close. 31-13 Colts.

And now a break in the action, for the rocking genius that is Jack Mother Fucking White...

Baltimore at KC(+3)
We love this game here. The Chiefs have been solid all year. Just outside the Top 10 statistically on both sides of the ball, the Chiefs had an impressive 7-1 home record, and we like their role as pretty much an "under the radar" team. They did take a huge dump last weekend at home vs the Jason Campbell led Raiders, but still, getting points at home in this spot feels like stealing.

Baltimore is riding a streak coming into this game. They've won 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 7. In 4 of their last 6 games, they've given up 13 points or less. So why are we taking the Chiefs?

Matt Cassel, 93 passer rating- and again, to stay on the theme of "under the radar"- 27 TD's to just 7 picks, is truly an amazing year. Jamall Charles, almost 1,500 yards rushing, and a 6.4 yards/per average rush. That is the dynamic we like in a home playoff game, for a team whose almost perfect in their own backyard.

Listen, Ravens fan. We're not just betting against Baltimore because we're lifelong Washingtonians who for the most part hate your city, hate the owner of the Orioles, can't stand your accents and your above ground pools. We just think you lose here. Joe Flacco, though he had a descent season (25-10-93.7), was sacked 40 times, which was 2nd only to Jay Cutler. That's not good.

Get ready, America. The AFC West is back and better than ever, and you'll see signs of things to come this weekend at Arrowhead. 20-16 Chiefs.

Green Bay(+2.5) at Philly
Short of Mike Vick's amazing play this season, we've never been sold on Philly having the personnel to win it. Bottom line, everything about their success, revolves around how Mike Vick performs, period. And his style is always one hit away from disaster. (see first Redskins game)

Green Bay has battled injuries all year. Ryan Grant was injured in week 1 and was lost for the year. They lost Jermichael Finley in the Redskins game. Even Aaron Rodgers got beat up, almost costing the Pack a playoff spot. But we liked this team pre-season, and we're not wavering now.

Unfortunately for Roger Goodell and all who dreamed of the Eagles/Falcons NFC Title game, that dream will become a nightmare by Sunday night. Philly limped into the post season, literally. Vick got banged up against the Vikings, and didn't even play in last week's meaningless loss against Dallas. And although Week 16 was a Chinese fire drill, with those tough guys up in Philly, pushing the Eagles/Vikings game back two days because of snow, Philly lost that game too, and were never in the game. Going into the post season with consecutive losses has historically been a losing formula in January.

Don't be fooled by the Pack's lackluster, slow start/squeaker win against Da Bears last week. In fact, the Pack is 6-1-1 ATS the week after scoring 14 points or less. The Pack was the better team going into the season, and they're going to be the better team this Sunday. Don't be surprised if Aaron Rodgers is playing in the NFC Title game in 3 weeks. 24-20 Packers.

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