Saturday, January 15, 2011

Rebounding Like Barkley: A 4-0 Weekend or Bust

(Baltimore +3.5)
at Pittsburgh
These two teams have played 4 straight 3 point games. Six of their last seven contests have been decided by 4 points or less. The Ravens delivered probably the greatest 40 minutes of football played last weekend, highlighted by their second half dominance in Kansas City. They now have covered 4 straight road games coming into this latest tilt with Pittsburgh.

The two teams split this season, both involving come from behind wins by the eventual victor. Anyway you try to handicap this game, it always comes back to it being a hard nosed(ask Ben), claw and scratch for points and yards, football contest.

Big Ben (allegedly) got engaged recently. Our own Judge Patrick reports its the first time in a long time that a woman has actually answered "yes" to one of Ben's advancements. Unfortunately for Big Hair, Big Ass, and Big Truck Nation, the Sportsyack is answering "no" to your team's chances today. And "no" means "no", you Iron City drinking inbreds. Book your flight to New England, Ravens fan. 19-14 Ravens.

Green Bay at (Atlanta -1)
Wow. No love for the Falcons, huh? 7-1 at home this season, 4th in the league in 3rd down conversions, they have a Quarterback named Matty Ice, they're on 2 weeks rest, and they're catching a team whose on the back end of consecutive road games, who until last week's win at Philly, had lost 3 straight road tilts, and they're only laying a point here?!? Someone get my bookie on the phone!!!

Listen, gamblers. The Falcons are still the best team that nobody has really seen play. This barely being a favorite at home bullshit, with all the factors we've mentioned above, is a joke. This game features a well rested NFC #1 seed at home, versus a team who barely got into the playoffs. That is the extent of handicapping you need to do for this one. 27-17 Falcons.

(Seattle +10)
at Chicago
We won't be fooled twice in consecutive weeks. The fact that we passed on last week's opportunity to play a divisional winner at home (7-9, albeit) getting double digits, still frosts our asses.

Jay Cutler doesn't give us a chub, and we're not too concerned about the new monsters of the midway defense. The Seahawks just put up 41 on a team who was supposedly ranked 4th in total defense in the entire league. And offensively, the Seahawks ATS have been very streaky good, covering 4 out of 5 the week after their offense goes for 350 yards or more. (415 yards last week)

The Bears were a modest 5-3 at home. You can spare me the, "but that was back in October" horseshit, when we remind you that they lost to the Redskins in one of the sloppiest games ever played, AND they've already lost to Seattle.

That's right. The Bears, who are laying 10 points today to a division winner who just thumped last year's Super Bowl champs, lost to Seattle at home, back in October.

Load up on guns and bring your friends, Seahawk fan. When was the last time a team who was double digit dogs in consecutive weeks, won both games outright? It smells like teen spirit, or maybe thats the smell of an upset in the Windy City. 26-24 Seahawks.

(NY Jets +9.5)
at New England
This game is a lot closer than it appears to be in your side mirror. For starters, these two split this year's regular season tilts, and over the course of the last 6 games these two have played, the tally reads 3 wins Jets, 3 wins Patriots.

We can't put our finger on it, or our toes for that matter, but we still have not completely bought into this year's Patriot team. In the eight game winning streak they're riding coming into this game, the Patriots won 6 of the 8 by double digits or more, including an absolute dismantling of the Jets 5 weeks ago. So how are we playing New York here?

For starters, the Patriots WILL NOT blow the Jets out twice in 5 weeks. Period. Ain't happening. Its tough enough to beat a team twice in one season, let alone dress them down to their birthday suit and painted toe nails twice. Secondly, we do like the approach Sex Ryan has taken here, getting the shit talking going early, and sort of creating a tangible that is a little bit "free roll" or nothing to lose, and a little bit "rally the troops behind me" mentality.

The Jets have played 17 games thus far this season, and have allowed 20 points or fewer 13 times. They've allowed 14 points or fewer in 7 of their 17 games played. Although New England's current win streak has left a wake of opposing teams' body parts, their overall body of work defensively, is nothing to write home about. In 10 of their 16 games played this year, they've yielded 20 points or more. And up until the week 13 ass thumping the Patriots delivered to the Jets, the Patriots had been giving up an average of over 24 points per game.

The Patriots have failed to cover 5 straight home playoff games. There is no chance this game is a blowout. No chance. Jets cover, but lose.

Last Week 1-3 ATS

Playoffs YTD 1-3 ATS

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