Green Bay at (Chicago +3.5)
A few factors here that prevent us from partaking in the Packer love affair here. For starters, it's an inter-division game, that produced a split during the regular season. The Bears owned the ground game in both games, which has been a winning formula in this year's post season (more on that stat in a bit), and the regular season finale was especially telling.
The Packers were in a must win situation in Week 17 in Green Bay, and the Bears had nothing to play for, and it ended up being an absolute dogfight. The game went 3-3 into the 4th Quarter, before the Pack eventually prevailed 10-3. So now in this rubber match, you're telling me I can get the home team, in a match up that's been pretty much even this year, and the home team is getting 3 and a hook? No brainer.
Secondly, we'll go back to the well, with an angle that produced a big fat loser last week, but we cannot get away from it: the Pack on the road.
The Pack on the road this year was 3-5. They have rattled off two consecutive road wins, at Philly and at Atlanta, but going into the Philly game, they had lost 3 consecutive road games. We have a hard time laying hard cayash on them playing their 3rd consecutive roadie, especially in the role of the favorite.
Soldier Field is going to be frozen, and its going to be cold as a mother outside. This is going to be a tough fought, entertaining to watch football game. Take the Bears and the points.
(NY Jets +3.5) at Pittsburgh
Our angle here; the running game. There have been 8 total playoff games thus far this post season. In all 8 games, the team that won the game on the ground, also won the game on the scoreboard. The leading rushers this 2010 postseason? Shonn Greene, LT, and the New York Jets.
The Jets have played 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Over that span, they've gone 4-1 to include wins at Pittsburgh, Indy, and New England (not a bad run), a loss at possible Super Bowl participant Chicago, and a laugher at home against the Bills.
In the Jets game at Chicago, they were outscored 21-10 in the second half, eventually losing 38-34. Had they not totally shit the bed that day (could've, should've, would've- yeah, we know), the Jets would be entering this game having won 4 straight roadies at 12-4 Pittsburgh, at 11-5 Chicago, at 10-6 Indy, and again last weekend, at 12-4 Pittsburgh.
The point is, the 3 consecutive road games here doesn't scare as much as it does in the Pack/Bears match up.
This game too is going to be a hard fought, low scoring affair. There are some serious over trends for both teams, and the 38.5 total seems appealing to bet OVER, but we don't like it.
We think the Steelers are fortunate to even be playing this weekend. Big Ben is a winner, but they failed to establish a running game last week, and we ultimate love that match up between the two teams. Jets plus the points.
Last Week 1-3
Playoffs YTD 2-6
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Friday, January 21, 2011
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