Sportsyackontap was an impressive 35-24-3 ATS, during last year's NFL regular season. If you ask us about our post season campaign, you're probably going to get a "I think my mother is calling me" response.
Nevertheless, 11 games over .500 from September to December, is still pretty god damn good. This will be our only "futures" post for the 2011 NFL season. Our ATS picks for Week 1 of the 2011 NFL season, will be posted on Wednesday, September 7th.
Washington Redskins- Over 6.5 wins (+165) or Over 6 wins (-115)
The Redskins will go no worse than 8-8 this year, and by doing so, will pummel the Vegas number on their "over" win total. Why we think this will happen:
1)Parity- The NFL is the best spectator sport for many reasons, one of which is the fact that the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies don't play football. The year in and year out parity that is the NFL, might be its #1 attribute. And the so called "experts", who are predicting 6 wins or worse for this team, are the same geniuses whose pre-season favorite to win the Super Bowl last year was the Dallas Cowboys. Other than a select few teams in the league, nobody really knows how good or bad a team will be, until about the second week of October.
2)Addition by subtraction- The Redskins will "win" at least 3 games this year that they didn't win last year, simply based on the fact that they won't be answering 900 Donovan/Albert questions each week.
3)Running Game- Mike Shanahan did it in Denver with Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson (who and who 2), and he appears on the verge of doing it here in Washington. We like what we're seeing in the pre-season, and it appears Shanahan and Bruce Allen really jobbed the Cardinals when they acquired Tim Hightower. If Ryan Torain can get healthy, and rookie Roy Helu (who too has looked good in pre-season) can absorb some of the carries, the Skins running game could relieve some of the pressure Quarterbacks Uncle Rico and/or Rex Grossman will be under.
4)Defense- Its a safe bet that a 31st ranked defense who in the next off season upgrades at corner, unloads the fatness that is Albert Haynesworth, and signs a guy who will allow Laron Landry to "rove" a bit more, will only be better. Not to mention the additions of rookie Ryan Kerrigan and FA signee Barry Cofield. Expect the Redskins defense to be Top 15 at worse.
Bottomline- we have a hard time believing that this year's team(according to Vegas) is only as good as last year's (6-10). Also, as much of a debacle as last year was, six of their ten losses were by 4 points or less. Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen are beginning to mold and shape this team into their own. They drafted 12 players in this year's draft (most for a Redskins team since 1995), and seem to have this year's team believing. (see Chris Cooley's comments, among others)
At most sports books in Vegas, you can bet the Skins Over 6 wins (laying juice), or Over 6.5 wins (getting juice). Obviously with the first bet, a 6 win season by the Skins at least gets your money back. Our advice- "man up", let Vegas overlay you (+165), and bet that this team wins at least 7 games.
Dallas Cowboys- Bet the over in every game they play in 2011
Over the final 8 games of the season last year, after Jerr unloaded Bum's son, Jason Garrett led the Cowboys to a 5-3 record, scoring almost 30 points per game while doing so.
Expect Garret to take the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach offensively, as his offense will see the return of Glorified Danny White, aka wanna be PGA Touring Pro, aka professional field goal holder, except when on the road in Seattle in January, aka Tony Romo.
In any case, we expect this team to continue to put a lot of points on the board.
Defensively, don't expect Rob Ryan to turn water into wine. Last year, Dallas' defense was ranked 23rd in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed. And Rob Ryan isn't exactly Buddy Ryan, nor his brother, for that matter. In fact, we haven't seen this much nepotism, since Fox Sports hired Joe Buck, halfway through his Junior year of high school.
Seriously, Rob Ryan is nothing to write home about. Entering this season, his defensive units over the past 7 years (Oakland and Cleveland) averaged 22nd in points allowed. To spell it out for you, starting in 2004, Ryan's defenses (on average) have allowed 28,24,21,25,24,23, and 21 points per game. Not exactly a Steel Curtain, Cowboy fan.
However, this is music to the ears of sports bettor, who should expect a lot of 31-27 type games. Our advice- play the Dallas over in every Cowboy game this year, at the same amount, and you will be a big fat winner at the end of the year.
Other news and notes: Wednesday morning, our own Judge Patrick got dumped by the Sports Junkies FCC police, which apparently is manned by show producer Bret Oliverio. In an attempt at humor while keeping it topical, as the Junkies over the past week have been talking about what sounds like a lost Sam Huff during Redskins broadcasts, Patrick asked the Junkies if they could confirm the rumor that Redskins Radio was going to team up Sam Huff with Tennessee Women's basketball coach Pat Summitt, for this week's game against the Ravens.
No word on whether or not this rumor is true, but we can confirm that Judge Patrick will be seated 4 seats to the right of Satan at the dinner table, when Patrick eventually sees his day in court.
Follow www.sportsyackontap.com on twitter @sportsyack and @JudgePatrick
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
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