Thursday, September 15, 2011

NFL Week 2: Load Up on Guns, Bring Your Friends

Next week marks the 20th anniversary of the release of Nirvana's "Nevermind" album. The staple of the "grunge movement", the album shed light on the music of the Pacific Northwest, along with the unwashed, stinky, tattered clothes the drug addicted musicians who performed it, donned on a daily basis.

While other bands from that era (in our opinion)were more talented (STP, Pearl Jam, Alice in Chains), there is no question that Kurt Cobain looking at the camera from behind his blonde locks in the "Smells Like Teen Spirit" video, was as iconic as John Beck's 2011 pre-season statistics.

Arizona at Washington (-3.5) and (Under 44.5)
As time proved, the best thing to come out of Nirvana was Dave Grohl, not Cobain. Time may also prove that Uncle Rico (Beck)is the man in DC, but for now its Sexy Rexy. (And by no means, Rex, are we suggesting you go out and marry some no talent whore drug addict, who you then write her band's entire album for, and then supposedly blow your own brains out...)

Lots of reasons why we don't like the Cardinals here. For starters- the west coast to east coast factor. Since 1992, teams who make that trip and then have to play at 1pm eastern, win straight up just 18% of the time. And they only cover the number about 30 percent. Secondly, the Cardinals gave up almost 500 yards last week to a rookie led (bad) Panthers team. The Cardinals also had to rely on a punt return for a TD, and still had a sweat at the end.

Ken Whisenhunt is a dreadful 2-9 ATS in his last 11 roadies. The Cardinals haven't won in DC since 1998, and we don't expect them to change that here. The Redskins defense was stellar in the second half, keeping the Giants scoreless and allowing just 102 total yards. We expect them to keep Kolb in check, as they did last year when they beat him in Philly.

A big day from Tim Hightower, which will result in the "clock being our friend", UNDER bettors. And Graham Gano will ease the Redskin faithful's anxiety, keeping their nerves on a plain. 26-13 Redskins.

Oakland at Buffalo (-3)
If you think we're going to stay away from yet another situation where a west coast team has to fly across country to play an early game, well then you're wrong, because we're not. We our some trend chasing sum bitches, and the NFL trending tree on this particular trend is in bloom from September through December.

Besides the fact that last week, Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick finished with a 133 QB rating and the Bills collectively ran for 163 yards at KC, this sneaky little, sexy little game is on absolutely nobody's radar except ours, and we LOVE the Bills here!

In the last two years, Oakland has made the cross country trip 5 times to play early kickoffs. They're 1-4 SU, and 1-4 ATS, and in those trips they were outscored on average, 33-14. Last week, Oakland was the beneficiary of 3 Denver turnovers. They did have 190 yards on the ground, but Jason Campbell's 13 completions for 105 yards isn't scaring the Bills defense, who allowed just 213 total yards last week.

This will be the last week you will get the Bills, who are a team we think has a lot of upside, at a price that in hindsight will be like stealing. Bills roll, thank us later.

Green Bay at Carolina (+9.5)
We like the Packers and we like Aaron Rodgers, certainly more than President of the Tony Romo Fan Club, Colin Cowherd does. But we don't love them, and Cheeseheads everywhere need to put their pants back on, and leave the lotion in the medicine cabinet.

The Pack was 10-6 last year, not shabby, but not world beaters either. Their playoff run on the road was certainly impressive. However, during the regular season they were just 3-5 on the road, and in those 8 road games, they would've only covered 9.5 once-in a week 11 blowout of Minnesota, a week after the Pack's bye.

There is something in the way that Cam Newton played last week, a combination of poise and confidence in his first NFL game, that we certainly liked. Expect Carolina and their fans to rally around their rook, following his record setting debut performance. And don't sleep on the Packers having given up almost 500 yards to New Orleans last week. Yes, that was Drew Brees and the Saints, but giving up 500 yards, is still giving up 500 yards.

Take the Panthers and the points. Hopefully by the time you talk to your man, the Vegas dummies have bet this game up to 10. Not that we're building in an excuse here, but at 10 we're getting excited all over ourselves, and we'll be the ones who will have to put our pants back on. Panthers.

Houston(-3) at Miami
There might not be a bigger dumpster fire in the league right now then the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins front office has tried to knock off Tony Sparano, more than when that horrible season of dream sequences tried to knock off Tony Soprano.

The Texans are entering this season with higher expectations, and last week's ass thumping they gave the Colts should just further fuel that talk. They beat the Manning-less Colts, despite losing the turnover battle, and a less than terrific performance from Matt Schaub. Kerry Collins gift wrapped the Texans first two scores with fumbles deep inside the Colts side of the field, and that was all she wrote.

The Texans will be less rusty this week. And the return of Arian Foster will certainly help. The Dolphins, on the otherhand, have nothing to build off. They gave up 622 total yards to New England, and were blown out at home on Monday night.

Speaking of being blown out at home, and just sucking overall, the Dolphins have now NOT covered 8 straight home games in September. Overall, they're 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in September. And there is a reason Tony Sparano is about to be swimming with the fishes (or dolphins), as he appears to be horrible at making adjustments following losses. The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS the week after allowing 350 total yards or more.

Take all your 1pm winnings, and load up here on the Texans. And if you're really jonesing, there are a couple of trends that point to over as well.

Last Week 1-2 ATS

Follow us on twitter @sportsyack, @judgepatrick, @beav4666

A free bucket of range balls to those who can name all the Nirvana "Nevermind" references we dropped in this post.

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