Friday, September 23, 2011

NFL Week 3: Betting to The Nines

New England at Buffalo(+9)
September 7th, 2003. That's the last time the Bills beat the Patriots. That's 15 straight wins for the Patriots against OJ Simpson's first professional team. To boot, the Pats have covered the number in 10 of those 15 wins. So taking the Bills here is like sticking our necks out in front of some crazed former NFL running back who is wielding a knife, right after he just saw us get a blow job from his ex-wife.

The Bills broke our heart and our bank last week. Even though they pulled out a 4th quarter win against Oakland, they were unable to cover the number. Speaking of numbers, here are the numbers we like about this game.

For starters, a home dog getting this many points(like Carolina last week), is always, in the least, a back door cover from us scribbling a "W" on our betting sheet. But we think the Bills are more competitive than Cam Newton's team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has throw 7 TDs vs just 1 pick, and running back Fred Jackson, through 2 weeks, is leading the league in rushing.

The Patriots are getting additional love right now with the NFL Network's Bill Belichick profile. By our calculation, the line is inflated by 1.5-2 points. The Patriots have played two mediocre teams (we think SD is a .500 team this year), and now they have to go on the road and play a team who is actually showing signs of life.

Through 2 weeks, the Patriots have given up the second most total yards in the entire league. The Bills got lit up last week by Oakland, but we expect their defense to rebound. The dumb money will be on all the drive by, "Belichick is a genius, and I need a game to bet at 1pm" fans. We ain't be no dummy. Bills.

NY Giants at Philadelphia(-9)
This will be the week in which the New York press will go all in with their "Tom Coughlin on the hot seat" talk. The Giants are not a very good team this year, and we expect Michael Vick and crew to treat the G-Men like pitbulls with no more fight in them.

The Giants haven't beaten the Eagles since November 9th, 2008, which ironically, was just two days before "hope and change" was implemented into our society. And like that victorious "hope and change" campaign, the Giants when playing the Eagles, have been a disaster ever since. Six straight wins for the Eagles, and six straight covers over their NFC East rivals.

We've said for years that Eli Manning's $97 million contract extension was a joke. The guy is an average QB who did have one hell of a playoff run 4 years ago, but he's still a "nobody" if David Tyree hadn't caught a pass with his helmet.

Eli's numbers through 2 weeks are nothing to write home about. 491 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 82.1 passer rating. All told, its good for 24th best QB in the league. And he's been sacked 7 times, 5th most in the NFL.

The Giants looked awful in the second half against the Redskins two weeks ago, and were bore me to sleep average in their Monday night win against a beat up, not very good Rams team this past week. The G-Men have only covered 1 of their last 6 vs the NFC East.

This game will feature plenty of sideline shots of Coughlin with that red, constipated, I have to take the biggest dump of my life look on his face, and Eli- slumped shoulders and all, walking off the field looking like a whiny bitch. The Eagles will win this game by no less than 2 touchdowns, and the Giants will continue their march to 7-9.

Last Week 3-1-1 ATS
YTD 4-3-1 ATS

Ryan Fitzpatrick's Bevis haircut courtesy of Hair Cuttery

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