Friday, October 7, 2011

Breaking the Shackles of .500

We can't seem to create any distance between ourselves and .500. Last week was looking pretty good when our lock, the home dog Arizona Cardinals, had a 10 point lead with under 4 minutes to play. Next thing we know the Giants fumbled, but didn't, then scored the go ahead touchdown, their second in less than a minute, crushing our dreams and breaking our bank.

However, we continue our torrid pace in the Junkies P1 league, where you're forced to pick every game on the board against the number. 39-25 ATS through 4 weeks, is good for T-3 out of 45 players.

New Orleans at Carolina (Under 51)
We like the under here for a couple reasons. For one, we're waiting for the rookie quarterback to play like a rookie quarterback. Through 4 weeks, Cam Newton has thrown for almost 1,400 yards (3rd in the league), has passed for 5 touchdowns, and run for 4. With Newton at the helm, the Panthers are scoring over 22 points per game, and have played in 3 of 4 OVERS already. This is the week that all comes crashing down.

Expect the Saints to score, and for the rook to turn the ball over in his attempts to keep up. We're counting on 4 weeks of game film to contribute to the Saints success in doing so. These two teams have played 8 straight UNDERS when they play in Carolina, and in 10 of their last 11 divisional games, the Saints have played UNDER.

Oakland (+6) at Houston
We think the Raiders are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. One thing we know they're doing for sure is running the ball. 1st in the entire league, at 179/game clip. That's impressive.

Also impressive is the Raiders ability to respond to defeat. Following their last 5 losses, they're 5-0 ATS the following week. Over the course of 14 losses, they're 12-2 ATS following those weeks.

We're still not sold on the Texans. They beat a beat up Steelers team last week at home, but lost to the Saints the week prior, giving up 30 points in the second half. And the Texans seem to be rotating star player injuries. After playing w/o Arian Foster the first few weeks, they're now going to be playing without Andre Johnson for possibly a month.

The Raiders can score, doing so at almost 28 points/per. And as we've mentioned, if they run the ball like they're capable of running it, this could be a moneyline win as well. Play the Raiders plus the points.

NY Jets at New England (-7.5)
The Jets are on the tail end of 3 consecutive road games. Brutal. They've lost the first two- at Oakland and at Baltimore. Brutal. They've given up 34 points in each of those losses, and they now get to face the league's #1 offense. Brutal, brutal, and brutal.

This game screams for us to play the "wounded animal" card, and take the Jets plus the big number. We're not doing it. The Jets don't scare us, and we think their foot fetish coach blew his load halfway through last year's Hard Knocks, and he doesn't scare us either. Him and his "Calvin Johnson would be the third best receiver on the Dallas Cowboys" brother, are two of the biggest blowhards in the game, and watching the Jets stumble to 7-9 this year, is going to be funny.

Bill Belichick's maligned defense will get healthy this week against Mark Sanchez' 25th ranked offense. The Jets caught the Patriots off guard in their third meeting last year in the divisional playoff round, but the previous two games between the two teams in Foxboro were brutal for the Jets; 45-3 and 31-14 losses.

The only entertaining aspect of this blowout that is eminent, is how the NY Post will opt to torch Rex Ryan come Monday morning. Patriots, big.

Last Week 2-3 ATS
YTD 7-7-1 ATS

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