Saturday, December 31, 2011

NFL Week 17: Did We Mention That We're Winning 69% of Our Games?

New York Jets at Miami(-2)
The Jets are not a very good team. And in reality, this spread should be close to a touchdown. In the last month, the Jets were butt thumped by both the Giants and Eagles-two average teams in what is a very average NFC East division, could've easily lost lost to the worst team in that same division, the Redskins, and were only "impressive" in their 37-10 boat racing they gave an atrocious Chiefs team 3 weeks ago.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been playing well since getting off to that horrid 0-7 start. They are 5-3 since the midway part of the season, and just last week had New England on the ropes in Foxboro, jumping out to a 17-0 lead before eventually yielding to Tom Brady and crew.

Miami has been a gambler's best friend of late, covering 8 of their last 9 against the number. Rex Ryan's act is getting old, the Jets defense is not like it used to be, and Mark Sanchez is just another overrated USC QB, who has been getting more ass lately than Rex Ryan's right, big, cheese infested toe. Which is all fine and good for the handsome Jet gunslinger, except for the fact that his 4 interceptions and 61 passer rating over the last 2 weeks is not quite as hot as that Victoria's Secret model he's banging. Dolphins

Carolina at New Orleans(-7.5)
Some in the media killed Drew Brees and the Saints for throwing the ball with a 22 point lead Monday night, which in turn led him to breaking Dan Marino's single season passing record. Last time I checked, the Saints were still vying for a 1st round bye with Frisco in the Playoffs, and although this tie breaker won't come into affect, "strength of victory" is 4th in the line for tie breakers when it comes to determining Playoff positioning.

In any case, you play to win the fucking game, and if Atlanta didn't want to continue to get boat raced on National TV, then those dumb bastards should've done a better job defending their side of the field. Props to you, Sean Payton, for having your team play until the whistle.

Which is exactly why we're playing Norleans here. They're still playing for a 1st round bye, Drew Brees is their Quarterback, and they're at home laying a little bit more than a touchdown against a rookie QB, even if it is Cam Newton.

The Saints are getting hot at the right time of the year. Over their last 5 games, they're beating opponents by an average of 19 points per contest. They're 9-0 ATS in their last 9 on field turf, and they're 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Saints

Dallas(+3) at NY Giants
Sometimes you have to do things in life that are painful; root canal surgery, pay taxes, watch Shelley Smith fill in for Jim Rome all of last week on Rome Is Burning, or in this case, bet on the Dallas Cowboys.

How are the Cowboys even in this position? Seriously. The Jets, Lions, Cardinals, and three weeks ago, the Giants- all games in which the Cowboys blew 4th quarter leads in games- other than the Cardinals, that were WELL in hand.

Reports out of Jerryland is that Tony Romo's hand is fine, and he will be full bore Sunday night. That being the case, we expect more flawless Tony Romo behavior, similar to the 4 touchdown, 141 passer rating performance he had the last time these two teams met. Speaking of which...

We're still not sure how the Giants managed to win that game 3 weeks ago. They were down 12 points- not just two scores, but two BIG scores- with 5:41 to go in the 4th quarter. Not to mention they dodged a fatal bullet after their first touchdown to pull within 5, when Tony Romo overthrew Miles Austin by about a yard, which would've been the icing on the cake, given him a 5 touchdown game, and would've sent the Giants and Tom Coughlin packing.

Even if you evaluate this game as two slightly better than average teams squaring off, so you might as well take the team getting the points, that's fine with us. We're just a step ahead of that analysis, because we feel Dallas is the more talented team. The Giants don't impress us whatsoever. Following their miracle comeback, they were dressed down the following week at home, to a bad Redskin team, and then rebounded last week against what we feel is a bad Jets team (see our Jets/Miami analysis)

Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record, and 6 of their last 8 versus the NFC have gone under the total. That bloated, hairy goon Rob Ryan will have his boys ready to play defense tonight, Tony Romo has another big game, and the law of averages catches up with the Cowboys in a good way- no blowing any 4th quarter leads here. Bet the Cowboys and bet the Under 47.5.

Yack's song of the year- 2011, embedded in the most Americana video since John Cougar's "Pink Houses". Hopefully this song isn't a metaphor for our picks this week and moving forward into the post season. Happy 2012!

Last Week 4-0 ATS
YTD 36-16-3 ATS

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