Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Occupy Draft Picks: Worst(and dumbest) Argument Ever

Less than 24 hours after beating their divisional rival Giants up in the Meadowlands- a place where the Redskins have had very little success, a segment of the Redskins "fan"base was at it again. The segment who had a hard time enjoying the ass whooping that was the Redskins 23-10 victory on Sunday, because they were already whining about what that win had done to the Redskins draft order in next April's NFL Draft.

At the crux of The Occupy Draft Picks (ODP)movement, is the notion that "a lower pick gives you more options."

Well no shit, Sherlock. What are they going to tell me next? Water is wet? The sky is blue? Dan Snyder has short man's complex?

And there you have it, the only valid point these Occupiers make, which they'll remind you of non-stop as they dismiss every single one of the multiple arguments against their Occupy Draft Picks movement.

And don't let them try to spin it any other way. Their argument is that one singular statement regarding more options, and that's it. And we get it, by the way. You're not exactly cracking DaVinci's Code with that insight.

Right around the time I started having basic math and reasoning problems fed to me in elementary school, I was able to conclude that having 1st pick(earlier picks) usually equates to better things (Dodge ball team selection during 4th grade P.E., having first dibs during Santa's Secret Workshop). I get the "having 1st pick is usually better" concept.

However, its not as cut and dry when you're talking about the NFL Draft. And the time and energy that these people waste worrying about draft order is completely and utterly absurd.

(The day I'm sitting around in my basement by myself in mid November, kind of rooting for the Redskins to lose to Dallas because by doing so it will help their draft order come next April, please drive over to my house and blow my friggin brains out. Thank you)

For starters, the ODP argument starts and ends with, "a lower draft pick gives you more options." Period. End of story. What these Occupiers try to do after adopting the role of master of stating the obvious, is spin it into it somehow guaranteeing NFL teams success.

Its not a sure fire thing, nor is it even close to being one. But God forbid you tell these people that its not. Do this, and you can insert 'defense mechanism' response by these folk, usually defending their argument by trying to make it sound like they are just smarter than everyone else, and boobs like myself or Judge Patrick, both lifelong Redskins fans, "just don't get it".

Actually, we do get it. We just like to take the common sense approach to it, that doesn't involve quitting at the first sign of a lost season. You know, like 5 weeks ago prior to the Dallas game, when this talk started on twitter, the blogs, and sports talk radio.

Pretty ironic, that in light of how the NFC East has played out, that these "fans" were already talking about April in mid November. (Have you run the NFC East scenarios if Graham Gano had simply made that kick in OT vs Dallas?)

Good thing in 2007, Coach Gibbs didn't just throw in the towel at 5-7 and simply redirect his focus on the following year's draft.

So I'd ask these people to show me all the examples of the low draft picks and the success it guarantees.

Cam Newton? Fair enough, the guy looks like he's going to be able to play, but you really won't know much until year 3 or 4. I could make the same argument about Andy Dalton, who ummmm, was drafted 34 positions later than Cam Newton, who also happened to be drafted by almost an equally bad team, who is getting virtually no rookie of the year run, and who with two games to go, has his team right in the AFC Wildcard mix.

Peyton Manning? Fine, you're winning that example, no doubt. That 1st round pick worked out. Ryan Leaf, the guy drafted right after Manning, not so much.

Most of the time, when you bring up the guys who didn't go Top 10 or Top 15, for that matter, the Occupiers don't want to hear it. {Aaron Rodgers(24th pick), Tom Brady(199th pick), or Drew Brees (32nd pick)}

So then forget about specific players, relative to where they were drafted, and explain to me the guaranteed success related to having low draft picks versus higher picks. Lets use the Detroit Lions and the Pittsburgh Steelers for example, and lets see how its worked out for them over the past 10 years.

Starting with the 2002 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions 1st round picks were as follows: 3rd, 2nd, 7th, 10th, 9th, 2nd, 17th, 1st, 2nd, and 13th. Pretty damn good drafting spots, right? Getting (on average) the 6th pick in the NFL draft for 10 consecutive years should equate to success, right, Occupiers?

However, the Lions record from that point is 46-112, a .291 win percentage, ZERO playoff appearances, and a unbelievably successful 8 seasons where they had double digit losses.

Insert Price Is Right loser horn, losers.

Lets flip that switch, and take a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who based off the rationale of the Occupiers, should have been shitting the bed for the entire last decade, based off of their not so attractive drafting order.

The Steelers 1st round picks, starting with the 2002 NFL Draft were in the following positions: 30th, 16th, 11th, 30th, 25th, 15th, 23rd, 32nd, 18th, and 31st. God awful, right? That puts their average 1st round pick at the 23rd spot.

During that decade of awful draft order, the Steelers have gone 103-54-1, for a .651 win percentage. This includes 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles, 3 trips to the Super Bowl, of which they won two Lombardi Trophy's.

So you see, you simpletons, draft order really doesn't mean shit. The key to a successful draft has everything to do with having the right people in charge that know how to run a draft. This includes evaluating talent by your scouts, coaches, and general manager, and to be able to trade for the right players prior, during, or after the Draft. This will then allow your coaches to then coach those players up, and work them into your system.

Another reason it makes zero sense to worry about and bitch about potential Draft order now, is that there are entirely too many factors that are out of arm chair quarterback's control. Injuries, draft day trades, suspensions, etc.- all things that you cannot control, which should be enough for you to consider dropping the poor, poor pitiful me mantra, and just enjoy the moment, for Christ's sake.

But the worst attribute of all for being part of the ODP movement, is the mere fact that regardless of the point in the season, regardless of the Redskins opponent on any given Sunday, regardless of the Redskins record, regardless of what Mel Kiper or Andy McShay is projecting to happen 8 or 7 or 6 months from now (depending on when your misery goes full bore), is that you, in some fashion or form or lapse in moral judgement, are kind of rooting for the Redskins to lose.

That's not a fan. Its fair weathered. Its bush league. Its actually worse than the "never been to Dallas, DC born and raised" Cowboys fans.

So enough of the nonsense, already. Quit worrying about things that you cannot control, things that don't even guarantee success in the first place. Your talking point is pathetic, and its you who doesn't get it- the simple(yet minimal) pleasure of being a Redskins fan and going up to the Meadowlands in mid December, regardless of record or playoff implications, and laying the wood to the hated New York Giants.

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