Saturday, December 29, 2012

Week 17: Time to Get Healthy

The Last 5 Weeks Have Brought Me to Tears
Bru-tal. 7-16-1 ATS over the last 5 weeks of prognosticating. I do apologize. I apologize to guys like "The Legend", who informed me thru a profanity filled email that he's had to turn in the Jaguar, sell the vacation home, and that "all the YP has moved on to bigger whales...." I apologize to my remote (s). I  apologize to my kid's college fund, which had to be raided to pay off the man. (Just kidding, I don't have any kids,  but I did rob the 19 year old kid who lives next door, who was home on Christmas break). But anyway....

I will continue to follow the trends and stats and information I've used for the last 3 years, that have propelled me to a winning percentage north of 60%. And I ask that you continue to have faith in my abilities, as we head into January and the NFL post season. Godspeed....

Houston at Indy (+7)
Most of football nation still isn't sold on the Texans. Include me in that group. Most of football nation also has Andrew Luck well behind RG3 and Russell Wilson in the rookie of the year discussion. Do not include me in that group.
4,100+ Yards & 21 Touchdowns; 3rd Best Rookie QB? Ok...

Issue One: The Texans are suspect. By my count, they have one impressive win over the last 10 weeks- the 43-13 thumping they gave Baltimore. And let's face it, the Ravens aren't the Ravens of old.  Also, I'm not counting the 13-6 win at Chicago as that impressive. Low scoring, bad weather, Chicago is really not that good- go ahead and pick a reason as to why that shouldn't count.

But never mind that, or the fact that they were down 14 points to lowly Jacksonville heading into the 4th quarter 5 weeks ago- this team has gotten absolutely boat raced twice in the last 3 weeks. Last week to Minnesota at home, and three weeks ago at New England.

Issue Two: I feel like I'm the only Redskins' fan who gives Andrew Luck any credit. "Blinders On" homer- who looks through his burgundy and gold glasses 24/7, sees nothing but Luck's high interception numbers. The fact that the Colts were a 2-14 team last year is completely dismissed. The fact that Andrew Luck and the Colts have absolutely no running game (22nd in the league, while Washington and Seattle both have rushers in the Top 5), to compliment the pass, is too overlooked by Griffin and Wilson lovers.

The Colts really have nothing to play for. Their playoff position cannot be affected by the outcome of this game. The Texans, on the other hand, can lock up the AFC's top Playoff spot and have home field throughout, if they prevail in this tilt. So why the Colts here?

The Texans are 0-10 all time SU in Indy. The Colts have also been pretty good at home this year; 6-1 SU and they've covered 5 straight at home. I'll take the home team catching 7, against a team that is definitely not peaking, on the week the home team gets their cancer battling coach back. 23-17 Texans.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Packers have covered 6 of their last 7, and I haven't been on them once in those 6 wins. Sucks to be me. In fact, I've played against or stayed away from them most of the year. So here is the spot I'm jumping on, against a one dimensional team, who they have absolutely owned over the last few years.

Not to go Darren Rovell on you, but the Vikings haven't beat the Packers in like 1,153 days, or something like that. It was November 1st, 2009, the last time the Vikings beat Green Bay. And over the course of that time, the Pack has bested their divisional rival 5 times, usually doing so in beat down fashion. In fact, this game's (3.5) point spread would've been covered every single time by the Cheeseheads.

The Vikings couldn't take advantage of a 210 yard rushing day by Adrian Peterson the last time these two met, nor the fact that the Pack was penalized twice as much as the Vikings were. Two red zone turnovers by the not reliable Christian Ponder, and a chip shot FG miss, and the Packers prevailed in a game in which they didn't exactly bring their "A" game.

I think the Packers will key on AP, and as mentioned, I wouldn't trust Christian Ponder's arm to beat Stone Bridge. The Packers are surging at the right time, and this game is a must if they want a first round bye in the playoffs. No Eric Dickerson record,  no post season, no nothing. Check please, Viking fan. 27-19 Packers.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5)
When bringing up the point that Dallas has been playing a lot of "catch up" football as of late, someone mentioned that they love when fans of opposing teams (me) are overly critical of how teams are winning, and how every game comes down to a play or two. Fair enough on the play or two that can affect any given game, but to my first point...

Facts are this: the Cowboys haven't taken a lead into the 4th quarter since October 28th, in a game they ended up losing (to the New York football Giants). That's a pretty long time to go (two months) in which you're not really controlling the pace of play, so to speak. They had to march back twice in the 4th quarter against awful Philadelphia, and were dead to rights at home versus Cleveland (remember them? The team the Redskins beat the shit out of on the road a couple weeks back). Throw in a couple gift wrapped Ws versus Cincy and Pittsburgh, and I'm supposed to be impressed with Dallas' resume over the last month and a half?

The Redskins on the other hand, have been beating teams asses during their 6 game win streak, and really taking control of the game, well before the 4th quarter. With the exception of the come from behind win against Baltimore, the Redskins have sacked up and taken control of the games they're winning. (Including the Monday night win against the Giants, you skeptic, when the Redskins completely shut the Giants down in the second half).

The train, as my buddy The Legend calls it, is not stopping this week. And in a world in which karma prevails like the cold winds at Fed Ex will be Sunday night, the Redskins don't trot out guys on the sideline, who kill teammates while being drunk over twice the legal limit. Karma is a bitch, Cowboy fan, and good karma guys like RG3 and Alfred Morris and Santana Moss are the types of guys Redskin fan let hang out on their sideline.
"Put That Drunk Guy in The Game, Jason!"

I hate when my appetite doesn't meet what my eyes are telling me, but I really think this game could get out of hand. And by getting out of hand, I think the Redskins could win by 3 touchdowns. I'm not sure enough can be said for what the Redskins did to Dallas in Dallas, on Thanksgiving Day. Though the game got dicey at the end, and the Redskins ended up winning by 10, that first half was a joke.

The Redskins have covered 5 straight against Dallas, and 6 of the last 7. I do think Dallas has been living on the edge, and this is the week reality hits them  in the face; your team sucks, your owner is an egotistical, (and at times) brainless asshole, and RG3 is your worst nightmare. 36-21 Redskins. 

Last Week                            1-3-1 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-17 ATS
Totals YTD                           7-4-1 ATS

YTD                                  40-36-2 ATS (53%)
Since 2010                      115-77-9 ATS (60%)

Saturday, December 22, 2012

NFL Week 16: A Stocking Full of ATS Winners

The Lions are 9-15 since "the handshake"
Atlanta at Detroit (+4)
Way to go,  Lions. You just got your asses kicked by the lowly Arizona Cardinals. I'm trying to pin point the moment your team began to shit the bed, and it appears to me that it started when that dick Jim Harbaugh bitch slapped your head coach with "the handshake", week 6 of last year (9-15 since, Lion Nation).

Here are the factors I'm playing here: Atlanta to come down after their statement game in that beat down they just gave the G-Men, the Pussy Cats to come up, after that beat down they received in the desert, and of course getting a home dog (who up until last week, was scoring big points) catching 4. Chew on this: The Falcons are 0-7 ATS the week after allowing 15 points or fewer. Conversely, the Pussy Cats are 4-0 ATS the week after they score 15 or less points. Good  enough for me. 27-20 Lions.

Oakland at Carolina (-8.5)
Pump the brakes, Bevis. Cam Newton is about to lose his job to some little kid, for Christ's sake. How and the hell are Mr. Newton and his Carolina Pussy Cats laying almost double digits? Is Oakland that piss poor awful? Uhh....Yes, Butthead.

Besides, this Oakland team has done horribly in the "fly east, play the 1pm kick" spot. Other than an early season 3 point loss at Atlanta, the Rai-duzz have gotten absolutely pollaxed when playing in the big boy time zone. 35-13 losers to Miami, 55-20 losers to Baltimore, and 34-10 losers to Cincinnati.

The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall (the "1" being that "impressive" 15-0 field goal fest last week against the Chiefs), and they're 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win. Look for a very lackluster Rai-duzz team who has enjoyed 3 straight home games in that shit hole known as Oakland. Also, look for the Rai-duzz to attempt a halftime trade with Carolina; Carson Palmer for the kid whose just "loosening up my arm". 30-13 Panthers.

Cincy at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
I'm playing the percentages here. Big Ben is due. Following his return from injury, you have a very lackluster performance at home against an inferior Bolts team, and then last week's meltdown to what I feel is also an inferior team in the Dallas "Drunk Drivers Who Kill Are Welcomed" Cowboys. Not to mention the Bungholes recent history at Heinz Field- not good.

The Bungholes are 1-4 SU in Pittsburgh over the last 5 meetings between these two, and generally speaking, the Bungholes get absolutely slammed while visiting Western Pennsylvania. In those 4 losses at John Kerry's Wife's Stadium, they've lost 35-7, 23-7, 27-10, and 24-10. For all intents and purposes, those are beat downs. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a SU loss. Look out civil people, the Big Hairs will be in a drunken, stinky, stupor of a victory formation come Sunday afternoon. Gross. 26-14 Steelers.

Washington at Philly (+6.5)
My, how times have changed. The last time these two teams met in Philly, the Uggles were 7 point favorites, and they administered a 34-7 beat down to the burgundy and gold. Coincidentally, we had a similar score in the beat down the Redskins gave Philly a little over a month ago in DC, 31-6. But that game was also the debut of Nick "Napoleon Dynamite" Foles, who looked about as stiff as a dead coach's son with a backpack full of steroids. (Sorry for the insensitivity this week, but I'm coming off a post in which I laid low with the schtick, so I'm making up for lost opportunities. Carry on....)

Be leary, Redskin fan. There is nothing Fat Andy and those degenerate Uggles fans would rather do than fuck up your post season plans. Something tells me too, that a formerly concussed LeSean McCoy (who was dinged up in the closing minutes of the Uggles/Skins first game), is not suiting up on Sunday for shits and giggles. The Uggles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in December, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC East. This could come down to Mr. Perfect's (Kai Forbath's) leg. 23-20 Washington.

New York Giants at Baltimore OVER 47
Here is a game that features two teams coming off absolute beat downs. The G-Men, down in HotLanta. The Charm City Crowes at home,  last weekend at the hands of The Six Million Dollar Neck.

JF will be laughing all the way to the bank in 2013
Raven fan, remember back in the day- you know, the year 2000 (Conan fan)- when your defense resembled something other than the old, broken down piece of crap car that it is now? Those were the days, huh? Ray-Ray still (kind of) had blood on his hands, yet was just  beginning to discover God, and Trent Dilfer looked like Joe  Montana, compared to what Joe Flacco looks like now.

Fast forward to present day. Your defense sucks (26th), Joe Flacco- though average, is going to get paid like a Super Bowl winning journeyman QB, and that genius John Harbaugh fired your OC with three weeks to go in the season. Good times!

Good thing you're playing a team with an equally sucky defense (28th), whose offense in consecutive weeks scored 52 and then 0 (zero). The G-men will definitely not be egged two weeks in a row, and I also think the future millionaire- Joe Flacco, connects for a few 6 point passes. The OVER is 11-2 ATS in Baltimore's last 13 following a SU loss. 31-27 Giants.

Last Week                         2-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD        17-15 ATS
Totals YTD                        7-4 ATS

YTD                            39-33-1 ATS (54%)
Since 2010                114-74-8 ATS (61%)

Saturday, December 15, 2012

NFL Week 15

I'm in Cleveland this weekend visiting family for the holidays (and for the Redskins/Browns game), so I'm short on time and my ability to put together a long winded, schticky post about this weekend's games. And quite frankly, my 3 week losing streak (and this blog, in general) seem quite trivial in light of yesterday's events in Connecticut. 

Green Bay at Chicago (+3) UNDER 43
Its sack up time for the Bears. They've lost 2 in a row, 4 of their last 5, and their once apparent lock on the post season is no more. I've been preaching that I don't like what I've been seeing out of Green Bay lately. And I still don't. They spotted the hapless Lions a 14 point cushion before marching back and covering last weekend, a week after virtually playing the same game (and eventually doing the same thing) to Minnesota. Lets also not forget about that 38-10 mauling in the Meadowlands the week before that. The Bears are due. The Packers have won 5 straight against the Monsters of The Midway, and have covered 4 straight. Noteworthy: These two teams have played UNDER in 9 of their last 10 meetings. 22-19 Bears.

Indy at Houston (-9.5)
Not so fast, rookie. I know, the big fat point spread coupled with the upstart Colts and Andrew Luck seems attractive. And yes, the Texans just came off a road beat down they took to the Patriots (your soon to be AFC Champions, by the way). The Texans are still the second best team in the AFC. And to their credit, they are coming off a stretch of 3 straight roadies, and 4 out of their last 5 on the road. This is a game in which Andrew Luck's 3 interception hole won't be something he can then crawl out of. In this matchup, the Texans have won 2 straight in Houston by 10 points or more. Houston is also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with winning records. 31-13 Texans.

Denver at Baltimore (+3)
Speaking of seasons slipping away, Bears fan. Is that what's happening here in Baltimore? Let me get this right, John Harbaugh, your team is 9-4, still in control of your own destiny, and you fire your OC with 3 weeks to go? That doesn't reek of panic or ego or anything, but for whatever reason, I think its going to work. The Broncos have won 8 straight and are doing so in convincing fashion. They've won all 8 of those games by 7 points or more, and are winning during this same span (on average) by 12 points/per. I've flip flopped on this game since early in the week, and for whatever reason, I just think the Ravens get it done here. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 the week after allowing 30 points or more. 21-17 Ravens.

Last Week            0-5-1 ATS

YTD                37-30-2 ATS
Since 2010     112-71-9 ATS

Sunday, December 9, 2012

NFL Week 14: Nobody Picks ATS Winners Better Than Yack

Baltimore at Washington UNDER 47.5
Joe Flacco threw a 5 yard dump off pass that went for 30 yards two weeks ago in San Diego. Couple that miracle with the fact that three weeks ago this scary 9-3 Baltimore Ravens team struggled to beat (13-10) a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team and then in fact lost in their own building to a still Roethlisberger-less Steelers team this past weekend, and the Charm City Crowes could just as easily be on a three game skid.

The Redskins, arguably, are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now. Three straight wins following three straight losses, and it appears the Rat has found his cheese. Washington's struggles have come on the defensive side of the ball, specifically giving up the home run ball. Unfortunately for them, Flacco is second in the league in pass attempts of 15 yards or greater. Fortunately for them, he's next to DFL when it comes to  completing them.

For all the talk about how Baltimore is shit on the road, here are the numbers: They've won three straight on the road, and four of their last five as a visitor. I think Washington's injuries and some  key players playing hurt catches up with them. And quite frankly, Monday night's win against NYG was a bit of a luck box, IMO. Look for Flacco to connect on some of those balls he throws down field, and consider a Ravens parlay with the UNDER. The once point heavy Redskins have now played 5 of their last 6 games UNDER, and Baltimore has played 3 straight roadies UNDER. I'd  lean Baltimore, but I'm rooting Redskins, but ultimately don't like either side that much. May the (moving) clock be your friend. UNDER

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-8)
Western Pennsylvania Hotties
I considered playing the "Ben is back after three weeks, and will be shaky" angle, and taking the Chargers plus the points, but then I punched myself in the face and came to a realization. I'm not betting on a Norv Turner coached team, who is hopping on a bird to fly East and play the dreaded 1pm kick, a few days after hearing through the media that team owner Dean Spanos is jettisoning both the crater faced Norv and GMAJ. That's a recipe for 53 men to just say F**k It.

Don't look now, Raven fan, but the Steelers got that short bus rolling, and all their Big Haired, Big Assed, Big Truck driving, menthol cigarette smoking, Iron City drinking inbred fans are on it. Skoot-skoot...!!!

The Steelers' number 1 ranked defense will get some added help on the other side of the ball, as the number one ranked guy you don't want to see if you're a hotel TV repair woman is back at Quarterback. And don't sleep on what Pittsburgh was doing right before Big Ben went down. Four straight wins including roadies against the Bungholes and Giants (both + .500 teams), and an absolute dressing down at home of a now surging Washington team.

The favorite in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last 9, and the Bolts are a dreadful 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Pittsburgh. Bolts fans will be continuing to tell Norville and GMAJ to not let the door hit them in their collective asses on the way out. 29-17 Steelers.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina
I love how the betting public (and public in general) continues to disrespect the dirty birds. Say what you want about their inability to run the ball, their inability to win the big game, their defense is suspect. They're 11-1,  people! And Matty F**king Ice owns these pussy cats.

The Falcons have won 5 straight against their divisional foe, and have covered 4 of those 5 ATS. And in Matty Ice's last 4 versus Carolina he's 83-132, 1104 yards, 11 touchdowns to just 1 pickle. That's pretty good.

Show some respect to the team who will be hosting the NFC Title game this year. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road in their  last 6 versus a team with a losing record. And Carolina has failed to cover the number in 5 straight home games. Can you say boat  race? 33-16 Falcons.

NY  Jets at Jax (+3)
Are you  f**king kidding me, Vegas?  You're making the Jets a road favorite? Was I the only asshole who bet on these c**ksuckers last weekend, laying 6 at home to the hapless Cardinals, just to see Mark Sanchez throw up all over himself and then have some good sport prick RB take a knee prior to going in for the go ahead, back door cover?

The Jets suck. And this three ring circus is going down this weekend like Rex Ryan in a women's shoe store.

Jacksonville did get pollaxed on the road last week in Buffalo, but I'm going to give them some style points for what they did the prior two weeks. They beat a team at home whose at least on the talent level of the NY Jets, and possibly better (Tennessee) and should've pulled off the upset of the year the week prior, eventually blowing a 14 point 4th quarter lead to 11-1 Houston in Houston.

The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and are 1-6 ATS in their  last 7 versus the Jags. I like the Jags to right the ship after taking one on the bow in Buffalo. Jax is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 the week after giving up 30 points or more. 19-17 Jags

Detroit (+7) at Green Bay OVER 49.5
I know what I see, and what I see here is a Green Bay team who is struggling. I see a Green Bay team who probably not only should've not covered last week to the Vikings, they should've lost outright. They've given up 100+ yards or more on the ground in three straight weeks, including Adrian Peterson's 210 yard gash fest this past Sunday. They were beneficiaries of Christian Ponder's INT in the end zone, and a late fairly chip shot-like FG miss by Viking kicker Blair F**king Welsh! ( I had the Vikings +8)

"I hope you have your cup on, beeotch."
So by my count, that makes three straight weeks where the Packers were less than impressive.

On the other side of the ledger, the Lions are taking on water like the Titantic. Four straight losses and their playoff chances are all but dead. However, they're still scoring points like its going out of style. Get this: they've lost two straight games in which they've scored 30 points or more (dreadful, Mr. D Coordinator), scored 28 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games, and 20 points or more in 6 straight. 

Green Bay has to come out of their funk, and this is the week I'm betting on them doing so. The once offensive juggernaut Packers are scoring just 19 points/per over their last 3 contests, including a 24-20 win in Detroit three weeks ago. During that 3 game span, Mr. Rodgers has a less than impressive stat line that includes just 4 touchdowns and 3 picks. Don't be surprised if Aaron matches that 4 touchdown total just in this game, and also don't be surprised if Mr. Stafford keeps up with him. The Lions have played OVER in five of their last six. 36-31 Packers and OVER.

Last Week                               2-3  ATS
Thursday Night                        1-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-11  ATS
Totals YTD                             6-2   ATS

YTD                                   37-25-1  ATS (60%)
Since 2010                        112-66-8  ATS (63%)

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Thursday Night Football & BT Sports Radio

Daddy Love Me
Denver at Oakland (Under 48)
Excluding Thanksgiving Day, the NFL Thursday game experience has been on the equivalent of old people f**king; boring, slow, and low scoring (sorry, Dad). To be exact, of the 12 games played on Thursday night this year, the Under has hit 10 of the 12 times.

I don't like the side in this game either way. I  could see the Broncos boat racing the Rai-duzz like they did earlier in the season (37-6), and I could also see them getting lulled to sleep like they did two weeks ago in a divisional road game, against an inferior opponent (KC), trailing most of the game but eventually prevailing 17-9.

Irregardless of how the game goes relative to the side, you will  see a  struggling offense (Oakland) attempting to move the ball on a very tough and stingy defense (Denver- 3rd ranked in NFL). You will also see the Broncos in a short week in which they travel, not have as much life. I'm  not sure whether they cover the big number, but this game goes under. The Under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 Thursday games, and the Under is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 versus the AFC West. Snoozefest. UNDER

BT Sports Radio

Check out Yack, Rich Turpin, and  Jabby Burns in their weekly Tuesday night love fest. Guests this week included Evan Silva of, Jeremy Conn of 105.7 The Fan in  Baltimore, and Junkies Super Producer Matt Valdez.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

NFL Week 13: December Football Equals Holiday Spending Money in Yackville!!

This guy is pretty good
Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay
The Packers last month has not been that impressive. They were completely annihilated by the New York football Giants, out gained and out "First Downed" by the hapless Detroit Lions, who gift wrapped (4 turnovers) a "W" to Green Bay the week before, and two ho-hum wins against the sucky Cardinals and Jaguars the two weeks before that.

The Vikings have shown life and can score points. They're putting up 23 points per game, and Superman Adrian Peterson is the league leader when it comes to gashing your opponent on the ground. Green Bay has yielded 100+ yards on the ground in their last two games, and I like the Vikings to keep this game from going "blowout", and still  being able to utilize Mr. Peterson's bionic knee. I'm throwing all trends out the window this week (as most of them lean toward the Pack), and riding AP like Joe Talamo rides 6 1/2 furlong winners at Hollywood Park. 31-26 Packers.

Seattle at Chicago (Under 37.5)
The Seahawks have played 6 games on the road this year, and have lost 5 of them. Not that they're getting housed in any of these games (they're losing on average, by 4.8 points per game), but they're not a good roadie nonetheless. And after making the NFL's longest roadie (Seattle to Miami and back: 3,300 miles each way), they get to travel about halfway across the fruited plain, and visit the new monsters of the midway. And they will be tired.

The Bears on the other hand, have been great when they haven't had to play a team whose defense was worth a shit. Blowouts against teams like Tennessee, Indy, and Minnesota, but put them up against a top 5 defense (Seattle, currently ranked 5th) like Houston or San Francisco, and its a completely different story (low scoring losses). The Under is 4-1 in Chicago's last 5 home games, and Seattle has played Under in 6 of their last 8 versus the NFC. Just pray Chicago doesn't score any garbage points, and this will be a big fat winner. 20-10 UNDER.

Arizona at NY Jets (-6)
We all knew Rex Ryan was into feet, but we never knew Mark Sanchez was into butts. Specifically the butt of his O-lineman Brandon Moore. God, that was funny. Anyway, the Jets are the butt of the sports media these days, for more reasons than Sanchez' Thanksgiving Day imitation of Rock Hudson in the Studio 54 circa 1977. You can start with their 4-7 record and continue with the Jets being so pathetic, that even Fireman Bill or whatever the f**k his name is, was forced to resign his cheer leading duties.

Heh-Heh...Heh-Heh...I said duties.....

Off the field, Sanchez is into women's butts
Speaking of shit, Arizona has been taking one. A big fat one, in fact. To the tune of 7 straight losses. Last week was a 4 turnover performance at home against average St. Louis, and the week before- when the team with the best record in football (Atlanta) turns the ball over 6 friggin times, dude, you need to win that game!

The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS loss. Arizona is 2-0 ATS this year making the West to East trip to play at 1pm, but I'll still take the team on 11 days rest, and play the due factor against Zona not covering this one. 29-16 Jets.

Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Baltimore
Yes, I know that Baltimore is 6-0 in games against Pittsburgh when choir boy Ben is not involved in the contest. And I do know that Baltimore took care of business two weeks ago in Pittsburgh against these Ben-less Steelers. And that last week Pittsburgh turned the ball over 8 times on their way to losing to the hard luck Brownies.

Mike Tomlin is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL. I'm expecting that practice in Pittsburgh this week wasn't a walk in the park, and Roethlisberger or not, I'm betting on the Steelers posting and showing some pride in this divisional slug fest.

I'm going to avoid all trends on Pittsburgh side, as they were all built having had BR in the equation. However, on Baltimore's side of the equation they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Tomlin and the Steelers show up to do battle. 21-20 Ravens.

Philadelphia (+10.5) at Dallas
Nothing pains me more than to watch two NFC East teams other than the Redskins playing, and me having to root for one of the c**ksuckers because I've gotten down on one or the other. Case in point, Sunday night.

Andy Reid is on his way out of Philly. And we're well into the phase of the Eagles season where they have packed it in. However, I'm not so overwhelmingly impressed with the Cowboys, that I'd be willing to lay over double digits here. And I do see some value in taking Philly at this number.

Builders in San Diego are widening doorways as we speak
For starters, this will be the 3rd game that Nick Foles has started for Philly, and I think he's only got to get better, and his timing and play with his receiving corp should be improved. I also like what I saw from Philly's backup to LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown. This kid had 189 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in the loss to Carolina. Give me two young guys at key positions, who most likely are trying to make their mark, and I'll take the double digit points here.

Lack luster Dallas has give up 20 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games, and is yielding 25 points/per over that same span. More importantly, in that monstrosity that Stretch Face Jerry Jones built, the Cowboys have failed to cover 8 straight! And Redskins fans thought Fed Ex Field was a home team's worst nightmare... 31-27 Cowboys.

Last Week                                     1-3 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD                    15-10 ATS
Totals  YTD                                    5-1 ATS

YTD                                        34-22-1 ATS (61%)
Since 2010                            109-63-8 ATS (63%)

Saturday, November 24, 2012

NFL Week 12: Beating Our Man's Ass During a Black Friday Shopping Frenzy

Oakland (+9.5) at Cincy
Since when did the Bungholes become a team that should be laying another team close to double digits? They're a .500 football team who though coming off back to back wins, rattled off an impressive 4 game losing streak the 4 games prior, including losses to average Miami and not very good Cleveland. Rubbish....

And as piss poor as Oakland is, they can move the ball (10th in the NFL), and prior to last week they had scored 20 points or more in 5 straight. They might represent the part of the country who beats the shit out of each other on Black Friday while shopping at a f**king K-mart, but I'll dismiss that angle while prognosticating this one.

Bottom line, both of these teams- for all intents and purposes, suck. Give me the sucky team catching a touchdown, field goal, and a hook. The Bungholes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a losing record. 27-24 Oakland in OT.

Buffalo at Indy (-3)
Speaking of sucky teams, did anyone watch Buffalo on Thursday night two weeks ago win in unimpressive fashion against average Miami? Less than 300 yards total offense, the Bills held on to win and cover in a  game that was as boring as Speilberg's Lincoln.

The Colts are coming off an ass whuppin at the hands of the Patriots who are now riding a 47.5 points per game heater. So I'm willing to give the Colts and rookie Andrew Luck a pass on that one. In fact, I like the bounce back angle a lot here, but its not the only reason I'm thinking the Colts win in possible blowout fashion. The rookie who sounds like Chris Griffin (Family Guy) when he talks, has led the Colts to the 5th best offense in the league.
Andrew Luck sounds like this guy.

A win here by the Colts gets them to an amazing 7-4, keeps them in the AFC Wildcard race, and will keep Andrew Luck's name in the ROY conversation, even after RG3's impressive Turkey Day beat down of the Cowgirls. The Colts are 6-0 SU in their last 6 following a SU loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss of 14 points or more (I likey this stat). The blah Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Chris Griffin and the Horseshoes get it done in big fashion, 34-14.

Denver (-10.5) at KC
I like laying the big number like I like constipation, but I've got to do it here. IMHO, Denver is the best team in the AFC, even better than that freight train New England. And the Chiefs just suck. This is a classic case to Martingale your chips, and play the Chiefs (7 straight losses) and play against the Broncos (5 straight wins), but I just can't do it. The Chiefs are that bad.

Kansas City took their first lead of the 2012 season like 10 minutes ago, for Christ's sake. They've played 6 straight games in which they've scored 16 points or less. In fact, during that span they're averaging a dismal 11 points per. That is f**king awful, Chief fan!

As I said, I think Denver is the complete package. And with a virtual strangle hold on the God awful division they play in, they're in a race with New England and Baltimore to get a first round playoff bye. They've scored 30 or more points in  five straight, and six of their last seven. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 on the road versus a team with a losing record. 27-10 Broncos.

San Francisco at New Orleans (+1)
Pump the brakes, Vegas. Are you effing kidding me? You're going to offer me the Saints as a home dog versus a virtual rookie whose coming off his debut in which he blew his load all over the national stage that's Monday Night Football? Ok, where do I sign up?.. i.e.,  get my bookie on the phone....immediately.

Its funny what the incessant media can do. Re-elect an incompetent ass hat from Chicago, turn a chubby little 5 year old into the next reality show darlin', and crown some kid named Colin  Kaepernick the second coming of Joe Montana. Well Honey Boo Boo this, Mr. President, I'm about to get my Who Dat on.

Please Go Play In the Road...A Busy Road.

Drew Brees and the Saints have won 5 of 6 and have done so in impressive fashion. 28 points or more during those 5 wins, Who Dat Nation has covered 6 of their last 7, and 4 straight ATS covers against NFC foes. Don't look now, 49er fan, but if Seattle gets it done in South Beach this weekend, your division lead is down to a half game. D'oh! 29-17 Saints.

Last Week                         6-0 ATS
Thanksgiving Day             1-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD          15-8 ATS
Totals YTD                        5-1 ATS

YTD                            33-19-1 ATS (65%)
Since 2010                108-60-8 ATS (65%)

"Never underestimate the stupidity of the people in this country..."

Thursday, November 22, 2012

My FAVORITE Holiday of The Year. Your BIG FAT Thanksgiving Day Winners!

Houston (-3.5) at Detroit
Houston didn't look ready to play in their tilt against the lowly Jaguars last Sunday. On the other hand, the Lions played well, but still came up short in their divisional tussle with Green Bay. That's two straight losses for Detroit, and it brings their season record versus teams with winning records to 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.

Houston will be ready to play today against a team who has really lost it's identity. As I've mentioned before,  I'm  not quite sure what's happened to Matthew Stafford and the up and coming Detroit Lions. Was it really Jim Harbaugh's f**k you handshake of Jim Schwartz' hand? The numbers suggest so. The Lions are 9-11 straight up and 7-13 ATS since the infamous post game greeting over a year ago. (you must analyze all information to be a successful prognosticator)

Look for the Texans to utilize the national stage (like they did two weeks ago against Chicago) to erase all memories of their unimpressive OT win against Jax, and to remind people why they're 9-1 and the class of the NFL. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Players are being sat and there's in fighting between the Detroit coaches. The wheels have come off the team who represents the car maker capitol of the world.  30-21 Texans.

Washington at Dallas (-3)
Here is a  worst case/best case angle based on each of these teams' prior opponent/games. Dallas could NOT be coming off a more dismal performance by a team who actually ended up winning the game. They absolutely had their asses handed to them by Cleveland on Sunday, but somehow (with the aid of the non-replacement officials and a questionable PI call) pulled it out. Washington on the other hand, absolutely dominated the in the tank Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was never close. The RG3 Show rolled to a 31-6 victory, and Washington appears to be back on track.

Pump the brakes, Skins' fan. Your team caught the benefit of a team and a coach who didn't want to be there, and a rookie QB making his first start who was essentially thrown to the wolves. You're pass defense is atrocious, and the spark that was for about a half (Brandon Meriweather) is done for the season. And I don't expect Jim Haslett to have an answer for 88 and 82.

As I mentioned, I'm not sure Dallas could've played a worse game. But I don't expect that type of performance today. Tony Romo is an astounding 20-3 in the month of November, and Dallas is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday. The Cowboys are a dismal 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games at the house that Jerry built, but I'm fading that trend today. Reality: two average at best teams are playing in this game. Take the home team laying the generic field goal. 27-19 Cowboys.

New England (-7) at NY Jets
Let's talk numbers: 59, 37, and 45. Any idea?  How about the points scored by the surging Patriots over their last 3 games. In fact, New England has scored 45 or more points 3 times this year. And if you take out their lowest point total of the year (18) and their highest (59), the Patriots are still averaging an amazing 35 points per!

The Jets got off the schneid last weekend with an impressive roadie in St. Louis.  But I still don't like what I'm seeing in NY. There is still lots of team turmoil, they had lost 5 of 6 prior to the Rams game, and New England does own them, having won three straight versus their divisional foe.

Don't get all caught up in the Gronk is out concerns. Brady and Belichek move the ball around enough, and have dealt with injuries before. Gronk's injury is a non factor. This team scores and scores and scores, and this is not a spot (national stage) in which they'll let an inferior team lay the wood nor stick around with them. The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 in the Meadowlands. 34-20 Pats.

Last Week                    6-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      15-8 ATS
Totals YTD                   5-1 ATS

YTD                     32-17-1 ATS (65%)
Since 2010         107-58-8 ATS (65%)

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/20/2012

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday.....

Show open. Hooters girls in studio, and Yack and Rich argue again about RG3 and Andrew Luck. The guys discuss the Thanksgiving Day Redskins/Cowboys game.

Redskins kicker Kai Forbath joins the program. The  UCLA alum has a surprising answer to Jabby's, "Whose got the hottest girls?" question. Yack asks Kai a loaded question, the guys ask him about his smaller kicking shoe, Rich insults Billy Cundiff, Kai tells us where he lives, and Yack tells him that Hooter girl Nina would like to, umm, date him and Ryan Kerrigan at the same time.

The guys recap the NFL and get into their straight up and against the spread picks. Jabby is killing it in the straight up contest, and Yack still maintains the lead in the ever important against the spread contest.

Former NFL QB, ESPN talker, current podcast and Hulu talker Sean Salisbury joins the program (again), and as usual, he is shot out of the cannon. Within the first minute of the interview, Sean puts Jabby in his place by telling him that Jabby's wife has a picture of Sean Salisbury's junk. Salisbury discusses Notre Dame/USC, the QB situation in San Francisco, says if he was Rex Ryan then "Tim Tebow would've started about 3 weeks ago", and Andrew Luck versus RG3. #RadioGold

Rich Turpin's  "Whatcha Know?" produces hijinx as usual. OJ Simpson, Elmo, and Chris Brown's weiner make appearances.


Saturday, November 17, 2012

NFL Week 11: Keeping It On The Level with Missing Passports, Missing Money, Sex Scandals, and Big Fat ATS Winners

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)
Carnac's Answer: Natalee Holloway, the 2012 NHL Season, and Mike Shanahan's passport and lap dance money. Carnac's Question: Name four things that are still missing.....Whoa, Mike. Your passport AND $3,700 in cash on your roadie to Pittsburgh? Was it all in singles? Was the plan to come out and play the worst game of the year to date, then hit up the local Pittsburgh strip joints, shower a bunch of menthol smoking fatties with Dan Snyder's money, and then hop on a bird to Amsterdam? I'm sure we're just minutes away from Mike Shanahan being named in the David Petraeus/Paula Broadwell sex scandal as a whip snapping dominatrix.

Where The F**k is My Money!?!?
The Redskins have lost to a rookie QB 8 straight times when in that spot, the Eagles are 10-3 at the worst stadium in the NFL, and Missing Passport Mike has been in this spot twice (coming off a bye against the Eagles at Dead Ex Field), and lost both times. So you might ask, what's to like about the Skins laying 3 and a hooker?

The Eagles are completely in the tank, and their locker room is a heavily compensated, Redskin-like Free Agency bust, disaster. Vick is on the shelf, the father of the year is halfway out the door, and honestly Jim Haslett- you psychopath looking mongoloid, if you can't get your unit up (Bevis laugh... huh,huh...huh,huh....) following a bye week against a rookie whose making his first start (on the road, no less), you F**KING suck! The Redskins are 0-4 ATS their last 4 after the bye. Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC East. Go against the trends, like I successfully did Thursday night with Buffalo. 30-16 Redskins.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit
I hate to pour dirt on @cublion's Lions, but I'm officially putting the kitties to sleep with this pick. I've given them multiple chances to redeem themselves, but they just don't have it this year. And I'm not quite sure what happened to what I thought was a team on the rise just a couple years ago. Maybe the turning point was Jim Harbaugh's hard handshake of heavy metal music listening Jim Schwartz' hand.

Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. Through 9 games he's thrown 25 touchdown passes. Word is that he threw 4 touchdowns during his bye week, but all 4 were reversed by the back judge who was working the Packers/Seahawks game in Week 3. Let's go to the video tape, Warner Wolf.....

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC North, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 in the month of November,  7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 following their bye, and they've won 4 of the last 5 against the kitties. On the other side of the ledger, the kitties are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus divisional foes. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are kicking it into high gear, and will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl come February. Time to play the trends, friends.  Packers 34-24.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Dallas
I still like the 'Boys to make the post season, and with wins Sunday AND 4 days later against the before mentioned Redskins, it would be officially Game On in the NFC East Divisional race. But its exactly this spot and this opportunity in front of them, as to why I think they'll (kind of) lay an egg here; playing an inferior non-Conference opponent who plays hard and stays in games, even when on the road.

The Cowboys are coming off a big divisional road win, but they are still a flawed team. Tony Romo is still a dope who reminds you so just when you least expect it. Colin Cowherd's favorite Quarterback has evolved into this dude who sometimes looks like the second coming of Roger Staubach, and then at other times looks like Danny White in the 1982 NFC Championship Game at RFK. (Ahhh...the memories)

Tony "The Tiger" Would Rather Be Golfing
In any case Colin, Tony R. definitely has not met your elite level status of QBs. In fact, take a look at the list of QBs through 10 weeks, who have better numbers than the guy who'd rather be at Pebble: Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, RG3 (HTTR), and Christian Ponder.

Elite??.... Uhhhh.....Bevis????

The Brownies are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss in their last 6 in this spot.  And unbelievably, America's Team is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at the monstrosity that Jerry built. Dallas wins this game in not so impressive fashion, 23-19. 

NY Jets (+3.5) at St. Louis Rams
If you've followed this blog, you're probably thinking I'm "Martingaling" the Jets, i.e., taking them until they cover. Well, maybe I am. But the real reason I'm taking the Jets here, is the fact that the Tim Tebow hating general public has piled on the Jets, and the other part of the general public has a casual, "Oh, the Rams played the 49ers tough last week. I'll take this easy winner..."


In summary, the Rams just came off an impressive roadie in which they tied the supposedly good 49ers, and the Jets are everyone's favorite team to take a shit on. Plus, Tim Tebow- the guy who gets into the game like 5 times a week, sucks. This must be a lock, Rams fans.


I'm not making any Rex Ryan likes to f**k his wife's feet jokes here, just play the J-E-T-S, JETS on the money line in addition to getting the 3 and a hooker. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing record. 22-21 Jets...#Ruff.....#Ruff.....#TebowTime

New Orleans (-4.5) at Oakland OVER 54.5
Here is your 4 O'clock "call/text your man and load up" game. Oakland is horrible. HORRIBLE. Follow me here. This 3-6 team, who should be 2-7, some how scored 13 unanswered 4th quarter points against Pittsburgh back in week 3 to barely beat the Steelers in the last minute, but since then its been mostly beat down city;  see losses to  Miami (35-13),  Denver (37-6), Tampa (42-32), and last week's 55-20 beat down at the hands of the Ravens.

Drew Brees and the Who Dats have been on fire since stumbling out from the gate to an 0-4 start. They've now won 4 of their last 5, and Brees has thrown an impressive 15 TDs to just 4 picks during that span. However, their defense can't stop anyone. In fact, the Saints defense is so bad that Jim Haslett hangs out with them when he wants to feel good about himself. (Bada Bing)
Riding a Heater

In the Saints 9 games during the 2012 campaign, they've yielded 24 or more points 8 times. And they're giving up a staggering 469 yards per game. Wow, that is the fatter, uglier, annoying bitch that a Janeane Garrafalo type would hang out with.

Look for this trend to continue, as the Raiders have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games. However, Brees and the Saints will continue their remarkable run after being left for dead following the month of September, and will prevail in a game that might break the Oakland Coliseum's scoreboard. The Saints are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of November. 45-35 Saints.

Last Week                      1-4     ATS
Thursday Night              2-0    ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      13-8    ATS
Totals YTD                     4-1    ATS

YTD                  26-17-1    ATS (60%)
Since 2010        101-58-8  ATS (64%)

Thursday, November 15, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/13/2012 and a Thursday Night NFL ATS Winner

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday....

Show intro. Yack gets beat up because Romney lost and the blog's ATS picks got absolutely pummeled this past weekend. Turpin tells the other guys to "cross off" Kai Forbath as a possible guest, only to have Kai Forbath reply 10 minutes later that he will appear on the show next week. Turpin says that Judge Patrick  "needs to wipe his vagina" and to quit berating him on twitter, and to call in.

The baseball awards are discussed. All three guys admit that Bryce "F**king" Harper is the man. Yack gets giddy talking about the time that Harper stole home plate against that bitch Cole Hamels. The guys talk about what a crappy baseball state Florida is, the Lakers new coach, and Steve Nash's cool hair cut. Also, Yack  might have a substance/anger problem.

@followFRANIE calls in to promote an event at Mother's Grille at Federal Hill.

Turpin didn't know what do with himself this weekend with the Redskins off. He also offers some pretty scientific tests that the NCAA could've done to prepare for the basketball games on the aircraft carriers. THOM's "big announcement".

The "NFL Recap"

The Weekly ATS and SU picks. Jabby continues to kill it SU, Turpin made some moves, and Yack completely Essed the bed.

Jabby's Weekend Nuggets

Turpin's "Whatcha Know?"

Last week was a bit of a debacle for your boy Yack. First the empty chair beat the guy with the weird smile, and then the blog suffered just its second losing ATS week out of 10 NFL weekends. Not good, but not horrendous, and I am seeking redemption. So like the fighter who has just been caught off guard with that left hook you never saw coming, I've picked my ass off up from the canvas, dusted myself off, and I'm about to pound my man's face..... "Whose coming with me?!?!"- Jerry Maguire

Miami at Buffalo (-1.5) and  (UNDER 45.5)
Buffalo is horrible. Let's establish this first. Check that, let me establish first how horrible Thursday night football has been this year. I understand economics and I get that you could throw two pieces of shit against the wall that were affiliated with the NFL and that people would still watch, but come on, Roger! Throw us a bone on a Thursday in which we're not cooking a Turkey dinner.

Reggie Fumbled Kim and Kayne Took It To the House
Anyway, the only team the Bills should be giving points to is the Washington Wizards, if the Bills threw out their best 5 ballers against the win less Zards in a pick up game at the phone booth. They've lost five of their last six, three in a row, and are arguably one of the most disappointing teams in the entire league, relative to their pre-season expectations. However, take a look at who they've played over the last 5 or 6 weeks, and it looks like murderer's row.

Four of Buffalo's last five losses have been to New England (twice), Frisco, & Houston. Those are three teams well on their way to the playoffs- AND all three of those teams are on many prognosticators' Super Bowl  ticket. (Their combined records: 20-6-1)

Miami has lost two straight and they can't seem to get their ground game going. That one brother who used to bang Kim Kardashian's fat ass- (yeah, I know, I've narrowed it down to about 500), Reggie Bush-you know him, right?- well,  he's been fumbling and stumbling as of late. Seriously, the Dolphins are averaging over 100 yards a game rushing for the season, but they're a putrid 73 yards/game over their last 3 tilts. And as impressive as the young phenom Ryan Tannehill has been, I think we're at the point in the season when the tape and book is out on the rook, and he will stuh-ruggle to the finish line.

Buffalo hasn't beaten Miami in Buffalo since the 2009 campaign (Bills are due). Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC East (Time to start leveling out that percentage). Miami has played in 5 straight unders (We're rolling with that trend). 20-17 Bills.

Updated ATS stats will be provided in the blog for Sundays picks. I'm still adding up the juice from last's week's meltdown.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

NFL Week 10: Barking Dogs and a "TOTAL" Beat Down

Denver at Carolina (+4)
Here is Carolina's last 5 games put as simply as I can. Lost by 2, 4, 5, 1, and then beat DC's ass last week in DC. And those losses were to no slouches. Look'em up for yourself. Not much love here from a betting public who loathes Cam Newton and who is just slobber fest in love with the Peyton Manning comeback story.

Look for an inspired Panther team coming off the before mentioned road win in DC, and a tired Denver team who is making their second trip in as many weeks to the Eastern Time Zone. The last time Denver was on the back end of back to back roadies, they slept for the first 30 minutes while the Chargers ran out to a 24-0 halftime lead. Denver sleeps again on the road in an out of conference game, with divisional foe San Diego on the docket at home next week. Consider the money line as well.  20-17 Panthers.

Buffalo (+12) at New England
Why do you like to pick dogs, Yack? Maybe because in this case the betting public is going Tom Brady's way 73% to 27% and New England's defense is ucking fawful. Call me crazy, I  know we just met, but I think Buffalo covers here.

New England has absolutely pollaxed the Bills in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and the  Bills haven't even won in New England since 1999! So the logical thing to do would be to just call up your man and load up on the Pats, right? Don't do it. New England is not the New England of 5 or 6 years ago, or even two years ago. And they're not a lock in Foxboro either, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.

This is one of those games that if you bet New England, you'll be watching another game and by about 1:20 pm EST, you'll see the ticker read Buffalo 7 New England 0, and  you'll be like, "F**K!". OJ Simpson's first professional team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following their bye week. "Ahh, LOOK OUT!!" Patriots 30-23.

NY Jets (+6) at Seattle
Wow, I can't believe I'm  picking another dog. Listen, the Jets are not as awful as the general public-errrr, the New York media would like you to believe. Actually, I just looked at their 2012  "resume", and they're pretty f**king bad. But my question is, when did Seattle become everyone's favorite up and coming team?

Rex Crushes Feet and Rookie QBs
First of all, Pete Carroll is garbage. I've never been a fan of is. He was a schmuck at USC and he's always  seemed like an Eddie Haskell type boy amongst men at the pro level. Secondly, Seattle's rook is not going to have an easy day against the Jets 6th ranked pass defense. And although the Jets- who are coming off a bye and are 9-2 ATS when doing so- did get boat raced the week prior at home to Miami, you need to look at the stats in that game. They held Miami to a total of 236 total yards, and somehow lost 30-9! And the week prior, the J-E-T-S- Jets held Tom Brady to under 300 yards passing in a 3 point loss at New England.

I think that the still chubby guy who dropped a few lbs in the off season,  who enjoys banging his wife's feet in his down time, still has some pride. As does the much maligned and scrutinized Mark Sanchez. The Jets will not lose 3 games in a row, and the pretenders known as the Seahawks will fall back down to where they belong; at .500. Ruff-Ruff, mother f**ker. 23-17 Jets.

Dallas at Philly (+1) and UNDER 44
Did you watch last week's Monday Night Football from New Orleans? Did you see LeSean McCoy run for over 100 yards in the first quarter against a Saints defense that even Jim Haslett laughs at? Did you see how the tone of a game can change with a 99 yard pick six? In layman's terms (or degenerate gambler's terms) that's called a 14 point swing.

Sorry, Cowboy fan. You're the NFL's biggest disappointment this year. You  went out and drafted the best rookie corner in the draft, and then signed the best FA corner available. And your team still sucks. I had you cocksuckers winning the NFC East, and it pained me to make that selection back in August. But all that "the culture in Dallas" talk must have some validity. Jason Garrett is the new Norv Turner, minus the moon like craters in his face. He's an offensive coordinator who can't get it done at the head coaching level.

And speaking of the before mentioned LeSean McCoy. The last time these two teams got together in South Philly,  LM ran like the wind, gashing the 'Boys for 185 yards on the ground. And of the before mentioned Jason Garrett, who will not be donning the Head Coach's head set in Big D next year, he's a putrid 1-7 ATS vs. divisional foes. No shootout here. Philly protects the ball, McCoy gashes as usual, and the Eagles win going away in a game that goes UNDER the total. (Eagles last 8 vs. NFC are 7-0-1 ATS UNDER, and Dallas' last 8 roadies are 7-1 ATS UNDER). Eagles win 26-10

Last Week                    4-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD     12-5 ATS
Totals YTD                   3-0 ATS

YTD                        23-13-1 ATS (64%)
Since 2010             98-54-8 ATS (64%)

In honor of dopes who got re-elected, and of course Colorado's new legislation, The Black Crowes' greatest song.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/6/2012. Rich Turpin's Kool Aid Drinking Gets Exposed

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday....

Yack's bulging discs, Rich Turpin's Carolina/Skins prediction from last week gets played back to his chagrin, and then Yack and Rich argue over the Redskins being the league leaders in penalties. Turpin doesn't think the responsibility falls with coaching.

The always interesting and Patriotic Rick Snider from the Washington Examiner joins the program talks Redskins, Breeder's Cup, and historic Washington, D.C.

Rich Turpin hops right back into the "defend the Redskins" mode. Yack gives his theory on the McNabb trade, and finally ends up calling Dan Snyder a jerkoff for his latest promotional event. Jabby does his best family counselor impression to help calm down the room. S.P. THOM asks one of the most complicated questions ever, but then redeems himself by playing more tape of Turpin's pre-season Redskins predictions. Radio gold.

The guys go around the rest of the NFL.

Fan of the show and sponsor Dr. John Baronas calls in, talks about Chuck Pagano's speech to the Colts on Sunday. The good Doc gives a great Joel Osteen like perspective on Pagano's "pep talk".

The guys give out their straight up and against the spread picks for NFL Week 10.

Jabby's nuggets. The guys give their NFL mid-season report cards for players and teams. Rich Turpin continues to sleep on Andrew Luck. College football recap and College B-Ball "preview".

Rich's "Whatcha Know?" segment. News and Entertainment stories.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

NFL Week 9: Bulging Discs, Pinched Nerves, and Tylenol with Codine Cocktails

Yaba Daba Doo, Mother F**ker!
Arizona at Green Bay (-11)
After starting off the season 4-0, the bird who represents the commonwealth of Virginia has now lost 4 straight and they are well on their way to a sub .500 season. That trend will continue this weekend at Green Bay.

The Pack's Aaron Rodgers claims that he had a talk with himself after the Pack lost three of their first five. And starting three weeks ago against the then unbeaten Houston Texans, the guy who claims to have talked to himself has thrown for 11 touchdowns, and I'll give you a hint on how many picks he's thrown during that span; it rhymes with zero.

Zona has battled injury at QB, and I think they now have Red Skelton's red headed step son at the helm. And during Zona's 4 game slide, they are scoring a miserable 9 points per. Yuck!  The Packers are an impressive 11-2 ATS following an ATS loss. Pack in a laugher, 33-14.

Chicago at Tennessee (+3.5)
What part of me telling you that Chicago is a fraud don't you understand? That question was directed at Vegas and the betting public, in case you were wondering. Also, keep trying to tell me how good Jay Cutler is and how he's come into his own, Jon Gruden. Whatever. Cutler sucks and he's got the body language of a spoiled little 13 year old girl.

The Bears are on a 5 game heater that they are well over due to come down from.  Two consecutive wins that were absolutely gift wrapped (Carolina and Detroit) were not lost in the shuffle by this prognosticator. The Lions turned the ball  over 3 times in the Red Zone two weeks ago against da Bears, and Carolina pissed away a 19-7 fourth quarter lead last week before yielding to da Bears, 23-22.

The Titans were riding a 2 game winning streak prior to last week's OT loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. Matt Hasselback, who has taken over for the injured Jake Locker, has been very efficient. And Chris Johnson is starting to look like his old self. Beginning 5 weeks ago against Houston (NFL's #2 Defense), Johnson ran for 141 yards in a loss, ran for 91 in a win against Pittsburgh (NFL's #1 Defense), and went off like a boss two weeks ago in Buffalo (no comment on their defense) for 195 on the ground.

You Going to Bet Your Cash on This Face? I'm Not.
Chicago IS due to lose, and they will lose big here. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC North. This is one of the strongest games on the board relative to all the angles I dissect. I would consider just playing the money line here, and telling your man to stick the vig straight up his ass. Ruff-Ruff, 27-14 Titans.

Detroit (-4.5) at Jacksonville
I'm in the tank for Detroit. They came through for me last week in my ATS October game of the month, battling back from a 17-7 deficit and multiple Megatron drops- including one in the back of the end zone prior to the go ahead score.

Jacksonville is just not a very good team. They're 1-6, for Christ's sake. And I'd ask you to look at what they do against defenses who are competent. 27-7 losers against Houston's #2 Defense and 41-3 losers against Chicago's #5. Well don't sleep on these kitties, stat boy. Detroit has the 7th ranked defense in the league, and as I told you last week,  they will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Want an angle? Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Week 9, Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in the same week. 23-13 Lions.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1)
The Bucs looked pretty damn good two Thursday nights ago in Minnesota. And everyone saw this kid Doug Martin break out, and the Josh Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo looks like it has some potential. I agree with all of these things. However, this is a spot in which the young, upstart Bucs get knocked down, and I think the before mentioned National TV audience performance by the Bucs in Minnesota, has this line a little on the short side.

All Pro guard Carl Nicks is done for the year in Tampa, joining former starter David Joseph on the IR. Tampa's O-line has turned into a carousel of whose who, and whose playing where. And that's not good for Buc fan. Also not good for Buc fan, is being on the back end of back to back roadies. I'll concede the extra days rest from playing on Thursday night, but this specific spot is an ATS loser 68% of the time since 1992.

Oakland is not awful. Following an 0-2 start, they've rebounded for big fat Ws in 3 of their next 5, and have been in every single game except one (they were blowed out, Emmitt,  at Denver).  This stretch included an impressive come back win against Pittsburgh and a loss in Atlanta in a game that they probably should've won. I'll take my chances on them in pretty much a pick'm situation, catching a team who has logged quite a few flight miles over the past 10 days. 28-20 Raiduzzz.

Pittsburgh (+3) at NY Giants
The money is finally starting to roll in on the Steelers. This game was almost unanimous across the Vegas boards, with the Giants laying 3 and a hook to open. And it remained that way until Friday night. Smart money is starting to see what I see when I evaluate this game. And that is, short of the very impressive win in Frisco, the NY Giants- though 6-2 and a top of the NFC East, still seem to be doing so with smoke and mirrors.

Case in point, the last two weeks. The G-men won the turnover battle against both Washington and Dallas 10-4. That is the combined total. And in both of those games, they were lucky to escape with Ws, with practically both games coming down to the final play. How does that happen, fellas? I also don't like how they've let inferior teams take leads and/or stick around with them in the Meadowlands. (See Tampa and Cleveland games)

Pittsburgh, though not healthy, got very healthy last week dinking and dunking it against a High School-ish Washington Redskins' defense. They've now won 3 out of their last 4, and with a very banged up Baltimore Ravens team ahead of the them in their division, I think the Steelers and Mike Tomlin (most underrated head coach in the game today) will continue their playoff march. NYG are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in November, and Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road versus a team with a winning record. I don't care when Pittsburgh is flying into New Jersey, they will  be much the best. 20-17 Steelers.

Dallas at Atlanta (-3.5)
Lots of believers out there in Big D. This line has dropped from (4.5) to where it is now because of all the Cowboys action. I just don't see it. And like Judge Patrick told me the other day and a point I'm starting to buy into, the Cowboys seem to be a team whose talent- as evaluated by most talking heads on radio, TV, and print-  has been completely over valued.

Tony Romo is in the 11th hour of his career, regardless of what Cowboy fan wants to tell you. And the guy clearly sees the forest through the trees. He's got $67 million in the bank, he's relatively healthy, and there is a golf course (or 1,000) calling his name. To put it to you in layman's terms, Dallas and JERR will be looking at QB talent very closely in next year's April draft. (Along with a new head coach)

Atlanta just keeps rolling along at 7-0 while carrying the stigma of a team who can't win a playoff game; hence a stupid low point spread here. Sure, the Falcons could've lost a couple or three of the games that they ended up winning, but they are what they are. And that equates to being the last undefeated team in the league through 8 weeks. That includes last week's dismantling of the supposedly unbeatable Philadelphia Eagles (on the road) following a bye week, and an absolute beat down of Vegas' second choice in the AFC (Denver), in a game in which Atlanta ran out to a 27-7 lead and then seemed to get bored as they let Denver inch back into the game.

Tony Romo will be running for his life as he always does behind one of the worst O-lines in the game, and the Falcons will improve to a perfect 8-0. The favorite in this head to head is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. 30-20 Falcons.

Barking Dogs YTD                    11-4 ATS (Ruff-Ruff)
Totals             YTD                     3-0 ATS
Last Week                                  2-1 ATS

YTD                                      19-11-1 ATS (63%)
Since 2010                            94-52-8 ATS (64%)

Friday, October 26, 2012

NFL Week 8: Triple D(s)

Seattle at Detroit (-1.5)
Somewhere along the way, the Kitty Kats went from the next up and coming team with guys like Matthew Stafford and Megatron and Ndamukong Suh, to the what the hell happened, Kitties?...with losses this year to teams like Tennessee and fraudulent (did you see last night?) Minnesota. And Stafford, Megatron, and Suh are all still there. So what's up with that, @CubLion?

Pump the brakes, Yack. The Lions are still a good team, and capable of making a run over their last 10 games. That's right, panic attackers. The Lions have 10 games left. And they've just come off a stretch of 4 out of 5 games on the road, and they should be coming off back to back road wins. Anyone who watched their Monday night loss at Chicago, clearly could see that the Kitties gift wrapped that W for da Bears.

Just look at the numbers. The Kitties out gained da Bears 340 to 296, and they turned the ball over 3 times in the Red Zone (one being a muffed punt). It was a far from impressive win by da Bears, and it was an ugly, out of sync loss by da Kitties. Fast forward to this week and Yack's October NFL ATS Game of the Month!!!

I love this spot for the Lions. They are a wounded Lion, they're catching a team who is AWFUL on the back end of back to back roadies under Pete Carroll (0-3 ATS in this role), and the Lions are a team that has a lot of talent, who will make a Wildcard run before its all said and done. Beat down in Detroit Rock City. 31-10 Lions.

NY Giants at Dallas (+1)
Don't give up on the Cowboys, Dallas haters. Listen, nobody likes to see those C-suckers lose more than I do, but this is not going to be one of those weeks. And Dallas, who was on a lot of people's radars prior to the start of the season, has seemed to be put on the back burner by those same prognosticators.

They've just come off back to back roadies, and went 1-1 on it. They won ugly at Carolina, and pushed Baltimore to the brink in Charm City, before coming  up a 2 point conversion attempt short.

The rest of their resume reads: A beat down administered to these same Giants in Week 1, a loss at Seattle, which is one of the toughest places to play (ask New England and Green Bay*), a home win against an upstart Tampa team, and YES, a bad home loss to a Bears team who I'm actually a little suspect of. But I'm giving the Cowboys a pass on that one....

The G-men had an impressive W against the 49ers two weeks ago. Props to them, but then again, they match up well. (See NFC Championship Game 2011). And I'm using the match up angle here too, because the trends lean towards NYG.

That Week 1 beat down was just that, a mother f**king beat down. Dallas dominated in every statistical category from time of possession (35min to 25 min) , first downs (18-15), and Dallas out gained the G-men by almost a 2:1 margin. And the game wasn't even nearly as close as the final score. The Cowboys had a 14 point lead with 5 minutes to play and gave up a garbage TD late. Keep thinking the Giants are the class of the NFC East, you crazy experts. The Super Bowl hangover will rear its ugly head this season, and you'll see signs of it this Sunday. 30-17 Cowboys.

New Orleans at Denver (-6)
After starting the season 0-4, the team whose fans used to wear bags on their heads have rebounded with two straight wins. However, the Saints defense is an absolute disaster. They're yielding over 300 passing yards/game and 30 points/game, both good for a 30th rank in NFL defensive stats.

I like Denver coming off the bye week, and so does Vegas. Denver is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a bye week, hence what might appear to be an inflated line, aka "sucker line", Saints fan.

The Saints are scoring points (29/per game), but they are not stopping anybody. And their secondary is a bigger disaster than Washington's. Couple that with the back to back roadie angle, and Who Dat Nation will be requesting paper over plastic again. Broncos win 35-24.

Last Night                      1-0 ATS (Ruff-Ruff)
Barking Dogs YTD     11-3 ATS (phenomenal)
Totals YTD                    3-0 ATS  (off the charts)
Last Week                    2-2 ATS  (Kissing your sister and paying vig)

YTD                         17-10-1 ATS (63%)
Since 2010               92-51-8 ATS (64%)

One final D....Mr. Hall with his shadow Baba Boo-errr, I mean Mr. Oates. Pour yourself a cognac, and go pound your man.

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