Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Sportsyack Radio: January 24, 2012


The boys discuss the Conference Championship games, Joe Pa's death, and the state of the Capitals.

Segment 1. Ravens/Patriots game discussion
http://www.box.com/s/zduksa2n87q5gkle2fos

Segment 2. Ravens/Patriots game wrap up, Giants/49ers discussion.
http://www.box.com/s/jb4d2uq17rjtj1phvkyi

Segment 3. Giants/49ers wrap up.
http://www.box.com/s/1u7znigdqddsaybpf6lz

Segment 4. Joe Pa's death is discussed, as well as the dullards that still put "We are!" over kiddie touchers.
http://www.box.com/s/vm5fnyfbuzxvx1yjf1nl

Segment 5. Ovechkin's suspension and overall state of Caps is discussed.
http://www.box.com/s/zmbd4oorkkd6yqm00pyv


Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Saturday, January 21, 2012

NFL Playoffs Week 3: Chalk Sunday


Baltimore at New England(-7)
Much of the general public, it seems, thinks the Ravens and the points are the way to go. We, on the otherhand, have looked at many angles handicapping this game, and we disagree.

For one, we think the talking point that "the Patriots defense is awful!" has become almost cliche, and its clouding people's judgement with regard to handicapping this game. Statistically, the Patriots finished 31st in the league, next to DFL. However....

Take a look at what New England did this year against the league's best offenses. The best 5 offenses they played this year were Philly (4th), San Diego (6th), NY Giants (8th), Oakland (9th), and Dallas (11th). In these games, the Patriots went 4-1 SU, and 3-2 ATS. And in the 4 games they won SU, their average margin of victory was 12 points.

Secondly, all this talk about how the Patriots haven't beaten anyone with a winning record. The "they haven't beaten anybody!" angle is my least favorite betting angle in any game I handicap. Bottomline, the Patriots don't make the schedule, and they can't control the records of the teams they play. I do know this, they went 13-3 this year, and they've won 9 games in a row.

Which brings me to my next point.

The Patriots current 9 game win streak is one for the ages. Lets discuss. They've scored 30 points or more in 8 of those 9 wins. They've scored 40 points or more in 3 of them. In fact, their average point total per game, during this 9 game win streak is 37.3 points per!

"WHA-WHA-WHAT?!?!?!", says the lady on South Park....

And yes, Ravens fan/devil's advocate, we realize the league's 3rd best defense is coming to town this weekend, but the Patriots have answered that call too during this streak. They blew out the Jets in New Jersey (5th best D), they pollaxed Philly in Philly (8th best D), and killed KC at home (11th best D).

Lastly, ego. Or in layman's terms, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Its our feeling that Tom Brady is playing like a man possessed right now, and nothing is going to get in his way as he strives for his 4th Super Bowl ring. Case in point- his rushing TD in Denver a month ago, and his Gronk like spike that followed. It was almost him telling the world, "Tebow sucks, I'm still here, and not only do I bang hot Victoria's Secret models, but I'm about to tie up another one of my fingers with some bling, bitches!"

And as far as Belichick and ego goes, do I need to say much? He's the dick in the hoodie. He's Spygate. He's no handshake guy. Rumor has it, the diabolical bastard signed Pontius Pilate to a one game contract, prior to New England's game with Denver last week. Bottomline, he's a winner.

And he and his ego haven't forgotten about the 33-14 butt thumping they took at home at the hands of the Ravens, in the first week of the 2009 Playoffs. Brady hasn't forgot either. He turned the ball over 3 times in the 1st quarter of that game, the Ravens converted points on all 3, and that was all she wrote.

Baltimore enters this game following a poor showing at home against Houston. And don't kid yourself, Ravens fan, your offense and Joe Flacco looked putrid. They had almost as many punts (9) as they did first downs (11). They were gift wrapped 10 points early, and actually, over the final 46 minutes of the game, only scored 3 more points. Houston destroyed them statistically, and with 1:58 to go, a 3rd string Quarterback was moving the ball towards sending that game to overtime.

And unlike the Patriots 9 game torch fest, the Ravens enter this contest not exactly getting it done. In fact, they've only covered the number once in their last 5 games. And looky, looky here...Week 15, Baltimore's roadie in San Diego...

Baltimore goes to San Diego to face one of the league's best offenses (6th), and they got absolutely boat raced. The Chargers posted 34 points, 415 yards of total offense, of which 145 came on the ground. So spare me the, "but what will New England's offense do when the Ravens scary 3rd ranked defense comes to town?" argument.

We like New England and we like them a lot. And we like them to cover fairly easily. The Ravens are not built for catch up, and we also like the fact that Belichick and his ego continue to pass and put up points, generally speaking, until the final whistle blows. Joe Flacco versus Tom Brady. Really? Patriots 31 Ravens 16.



New York Giants at San Francisco (-2)
We won't be as long winded here. The 49ers, in our humble 65% win percentage ATS for the year documented record, (clear throat sound) are the most well rounded team left of the 4 remaining teams. They run the ball well (Top 10), they play great defense (Top 5), and they create turnovers (1st). They were tied with the Packers for most turnovers created, but they stand alone at the Top in the all important +/- category, at (+28).


Like the Patriots, we feel Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers are on a mission, and that mission begins with the all important fact that they believe in themselves. And what a job this guy has done- taking a 6-10 team, and a Quarterback that virtually nobody believed in, and transforming them into a 13-3 monster. A monster who just took down what was arguably the hottest team going into the post season.

The Giants get props for the dismantling that was last week's win at Lambeau Field. The facts are, if Bill Leavy wasn't a horses' ass of a referee, the final score of that game could've been 37-13, but I digress into the NFL and their elephant in the room. (this year's officiating and the helmet to helmet rules that have and are ruining the game)

The Giants were 5:41 away from not even playing today. Yeah, Giants fan, lets go back to just over a month ago, when you pulled a rabbit out of your ass down in Dallas. I think its important to note this, as the general public has got all caught up in the recency effect of what NYG has done since week 17. They have played 3 straight games in which they dominated their opponent- Dallas, Atlanta, and last week in Green Bay, but slow down, Johnny.

The Giants did pull off a miracle in Dallas, and could easily be teeing it up right now with Tony Romo and Tiger Woods (Johnny: But if Dallas would've won, Yack, Romo would be playing this weekend. Me: No they wouldn't, dummy, as Romo would've figured out a way to lose to the Pack). They then followed that up by getting kicked in the teeth at home by the 5-11 Washington Redskins, not impressive. And lets not forget, they didn't get into the playoffs until the final game of the year, in a division that wasn't exactly stellar.

Lastly, you can't continue to win on the road in January. And I realize that they've only won once this year in that spot, last week in Green Bay. But I think the 2007-2008 campaign has crept into the mindset of general public gambler Johnny, and it seems to have become a foregone conclusion that they'll win on the road. That sheeot just doesn't continue to fly in the NFL folks, and its our belief that comes to an end today.

The 49ers already took care of business at home against NYG earlier this year, 27-20. And speaking of taking care of business at home, the before mentioned Alex Smith is now 17-1 ATS in his last 18 home games. That's a bit staggering. Lastly, the G-Men are a not so great 5-12 ATS in their last 17 on natural grass. Don't expect the (predicted) rainy/wet weather to pad that number.

Belichick will have another date with a Harbaugh brother, two weeks from now in Indianapolis. 24-19 49ers.


Last Week 0-4 ATS
YTD 41-22-4 ATS





Graves and Yack (minus Judge Patrick) got together Monday night for some Sportsyack Radio segments. Listen to what we had to say about these games here:

http://www.box.com/s/9harcqgrhob2tuz038jv

Friday, January 20, 2012

Beavergate


Beaver tries to explain his "you're my least favorite Junkie" tweet to EB from the Sports Junkies. Yack then attempts to defend his "ass kissing" phone call to the Junkies. I'm not sure anything gets resolved, but judge for yourself.

Seg. 1. http://www.box.com/s/c3ecglihegs4julxvtvb

Seg. 2. http://www.box.com/s/e37a3lv7mcoxl5yc1qgv





In the final segment, Carnac The Magnificent stops by with Ed McMahon to perform his infamous question and answer bit.

Seg. 3. http://www.box.com/s/uelsqxgttxjzd8zy10h8

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The 2012 PGA Tour Preview


By. Beaver in Sterling

Is 2012 the year of Tiger, Phil and other gritty veterans, or will the "young guns" like Webb Simpson, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas and Rory McIllroy continue to take over the tour?

The 2011 season, as far as the majors were concerned, was all about the first time winners. The Masters saw Charl Schwartzel come from behind on Sunday, fighting off a charging Tiger Woods, while eventual US Open winner Rory McIllroy struggled. Schwartzel, a golfer under most peoples' radar, has had much success on the Euro Tour and "bigger" PGA tour events. He was the first South African major winner since fellow countryman Trevor Immelman won the same tournament in 2008.

The before mentioned McIllroy won the next major, the US Open at Congressional, an event that I attended. Congressional is a horrible walking course and it wasn't an easy layout either. McIllroy looked like a man amongst boys that week, two months after his meltdown at Augusta, and it was good to see him win this one.

The Open Championship produced another Northern Ireland winner, a golfer that most of us can relate to in Darren Clarke. Clarke, a man that has lived through tragedy in his life, finally accomplished the goal that all golfers want to achieve in winning a major. Clarke was pretty much out of the discussion until the 5th hole on Sunday, when everyone but him fell victim to the elements that always play a factor overseas. In my opinion, it's by far the hardest major to win.

Last but certainly not least, came the PGA championship and Keegan Bradley. Who is Keegan Bradley? Bradley was a rookie on the 2011 PGA tour and already a winner before he stepped foot onto the grounds in Atlanta. This was probably the least watched major of the 2011 season, but for us "true" golf fans by far the most riveting. After Bradley dropped his 2nd shot on 15 into the water, making a triple bogey, he came from behind to force a playoff and eventually win his first major.

2012, in my opinion, is going to be a season of proving yourself to the world that you have "arrived". 4 weeks into the season, we've already seen this on the European tour. Englishman Robert Rock, who prior to this weekend was known as the guy who almost didn't make last year's US Open because of some visa issues, went toe to toe with Tiger Woods yesterday, and beat Woods and a pretty strong field in Dubai. Winning his second Euro Tour tournament of his career, this weekend's win has put him on golf's world map.



Speaking of Tiger, I'm impressed with what I've seen from him over the last few months. A strong T-3 finish in Australia at the end of 2011, in a tournament that had a pretty strong field. He then won his own event, albeit only 18 players in the field, and then this weekend's showing in Dubai. These results are a far cry from the talk of him 6-9 months ago, when a lot of drive by'ers and golf experts, for that matter, were writing him off as done. Based on what I've seen of late, I'd expect Tiger to win at least once this year on tour, and to be in contention on Sunday, in at least 2 of the 4 Majors.

We almost saw a young gun win yesterday here in the States. 3rd year pro Kyle Stanley blew a 6 shot lead going into the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open, which included a triple bogey 8 on the 72nd hole of the tournament. He eventually lost to Brandt Snedeker on the second playoff hole, but with his second runner up finish in less than a year, the 23 year old Stanley is one of the young players who is on the cusp.

Although I'm excited to see some of the newer faces on tour end up in the winners' circle, I do think that the veterans are going to take this tour back and not only that, win majors. With that being said here are MY selections for this years majors:

The Masters- Tiger Woods, US Open- Dustin Johnson, Open championship- Sergio Garcia, and The PGA Championship- Matt Kuchar.

I'd like to close by telling you about a 2012 PGA tour rookie for whom you should follow. His name is Billy Hurley III. He's a Leesburg, Va native, a graduate of the US Naval Academy, and he made the tour via his finish on the 2011 Nationwide tour. He has already made the cut in his 1st event as a "full" member. So good luck to Billy, and for those of us that remember him from his high school playing days.... let's hope he and Tiger are not paired together!! (full story on that story, to come in a later blog)


Follow Beaver in Sterling on twitter @beav4666

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

In A Playoff Hole (again)

Here we go again. Following yet another regular season of killing our man, we've slipped below the post season .500 mark after a horrid 0-4 weekend. Last year we were 10 games over .500 for the regular season, then proceeded to post a 4-7 ATS post season record. This year's remarkable 38-17-4 ATS regular season record, is now tainted by our 3-5 ATS post season record through 2 weeks.

Yuck.

And speaking of yuck, all apologies to a friend of Yack who will remain nameless, who took our advice of "Get down on Tebow" to a whole new level. Since he happened to be in Vegas this past weekend, our friend decided to have a go.

Enough of cry me a river talk. Our money back guarantee with 3 games to go in the 2011 NFL Season, is that we will run the table; a 2-0 weekend this week, and a chicken dinner to all our loyals on Super Bowl Sunday.

Have shovel, will dig out.


Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick



Thursday, January 12, 2012

NFL Playoffs Week 2: We Continue to Kill It


New Orleans(-4) at San Francisco
We are riding this train until it wrecks. And with how the Saints have played of late, that train wreck might not happen until next September or October. Dem Saints have won and covered 9 straight, and over the last month, their average margin of victory is 24 points. Not 2.4 points, twenty-four points.

Hoe-dee mackral, who dat???

Dem Saints ain't just boat racing shit teams, either. They beat Detroit (playoff team) by 17 last week, Atlanta (playoff team) by 29 three weeks ago, contained Cam Newton and throttled a descent Panthers team by 28, and they hammered the (still in the Playoffs) Giants by 25 points, the last week in November.

The Saints also have a sneaky little run game, that is over shadowed by Drew Brees and their superior air attack. New Orleans' run game was good enough for 6th overall in the entire league, producing almost 133 yards/per game on the ground.

As good as the Niners are defensively, and as good as their 13-3 record looks on paper, we still don't trust Alex Smith, we think they're a player or two away on offense, and you must consider the weak division they play in.

The Niners get the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks twice. And if you look at their regular season, I can only pick out two games that even somewhat qualify as descent wins against good teams. (a beat up Pittsburgh Steelers team, on MNF when the lights kept going out, and against the NY Giants)

The Saints have entirely too much here. Their 34.2 points per game is going to be too much for a Niners team who only scored more than 30 three times all year. And don't believe this horseshit notion that the Saints can't play outside the Superdome. Their 18-6 road record over the past 3 years, is best in the NFL during that time frame. The Saints will win and cover.



Denver(+13.5) at New England
The last time we told you "this is our least favorite game" (last week, Cincy at Houston), it ended up being the only ATS game we lost. Well, we're telling you it again, sorry. This is our least favorite game. But anyway....

There are two reasons why we're playing the Broncos here. Actually, three, but the third reason is the cardinal sin of gambling, so lets start with reasons one and two.

Number 1, we're not going to pass up the chance to get almost two touchdowns against the league's 2nd worst defense. A defense who in the last month of the season yielded 21 points in the 1st half to Buffalo, 17 points in the 1st half to Miami, 16 points in the 1st half of their 1st meeting with Denver, and 20 points in the 1st half to Washington.

Now the reason I point these 1st half numbers out, is that these are not "prevent yards" or "prevent points" their defense is yielding late in games after building big leads, ala Green Bay's underrated and overly scrutinized defense. These are games against not very good teams (Buff, Miami, Wash), in which the Pats are digging themselves into holes early, and then having to come back to win.

Secondly, I don't think Brady and Belichick are at an advantage for getting to play the Broncos for a second time. If anything, John Fox and the genius that is his coaching staff(see Tim Tebow experiment, 2011) will have the upper hand when it comes to making rematch adjustments. Bottomline, is that it is tougher to beat a team the second and/or third time during a season.

Lastly, we just want to root for Tebow. The guy is a winner, and we love the big, yet subtle, Fuck You he is giving to the MSM left, and anyone- regardless of politics, religion, etc., who has their panties in a bind because this guy is outward about his faith. Who gives a shit about his Tebowing or his unorthodox way of playing the Quarterback position? If you can't appreciate his attitude and his will to win, you're a fucking miserable loser. But I digress, Bomani Jones and Stephen A. Smith....

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, covering 4 straight as a road dog. The Patriots, on the other hand, are not exactly stellar when laying a big number at home. They've only covered 3 of their last 17 games at home, when they're laying 10.5 points or more. And as calm and cool as Belichick is in his hoodie, and Brady is in his Uggs, the Belichick/Brady led Patriots are a dismal 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. The Broncos will anchor your ship in Cover Harbor.



Houston at Baltimore(-9)
Although we encourage equal wagering (even on our "least favorite games of the week" plays), we are letting all our loyal readers know right now: WE LOVE THIS F**KING GAME!!!!!!

This game is real simple, and to mimic our way of thinking/prognosticating it, we're not going to waste a lot of blog space explaining. The Ravens were 8-0 at home this year. They're also coming off a bye week. The Texans are led by a rookie QB, who is actually their 3rd stringer, and the Texans are coming off a 21 point win against Cincy, that we thought was a little skewed.

Skewed, because even though the Texans won by 3 touchdowns, that game came down to 2 key plays. J.J. Watt's unbelievable interception to the house, right before the end of the 1st half. And the Bengals' Chris Crocker dropping a (most likely) pick six, early in the 3rd quarter. If those plays hadn't happened-especially Watt's play, that game could've had a different outcome. In fact, the Bengals out gained the Texans in the first half of that game, 173-150.

Look for the Texans to pick up where they left off prior to last week's win against Cincy, which was 3 straight losses against non-playoff teams-Carolina, Indy, and Tennessee. Rookie QB against an 8-0 at home Ravens team on a week's rest, spells disaster for Houston. 31-13 Ravens.



NY Giants at Green Bay(-8)
At the end of the day, our handicapping angle on this game is as follows: A 15-1 team, playing(home) at storied Lambeau Field, coming off a week's rest, against the (next to Denver) weakest division winner in the entire NFL, who didn't get into the playoffs until the final week of the season.

We're not going to factor the tragedy that struck the Packers this week with OC Joe Philbin's son. And even though its been documented this week that Philbin is usually HC Mike McCarthy's go to when it comes to game planning, if that tragedy has any effect in this game, it will definitely inspire the Packers more than it will hamper them.

The Giants last month of the season was unusual. They were dead to rights against Dallas with 5:41 to play, yet somehow managed a miracle comeback. They then lost to a bad Redskins team at home. (a 5-11 Redskins team who swept them this year). The Giants then beat a not very good Jets team, kicked Dallas' ass in the regular season finale to get into the playoffs, in a game in which it appeared Dallas didn't even post, and then there is last week's game.

The Giants 24-2 win against Atlanta, might've been the most impressive win of all the games last weekend. But we predicted it, and as expected, the choking dog that is Matty Ice and Mike Smith did post. Collectively, those two are now a solid 0-5 in post season games.

Final thought for this game. When these two teams met in the first week of December, Eli Manning played his collective balls off. He was 23-40, 347 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 pick, for a 100.7 passer rating. He and the Giants did all they could to keep up with the A-Rod train, yet still failed in the end. And do you remember what A-Rod did to the Giants with :58 to play? Like a hot knife thru butter, he drove the Pack right down the field, to set up the game winning FG, in what was easily one of the best orchestrated drives by any team or Quarterback, all year.

The Packers will win this game going away, in what is our second favorite game of the week.


Last Week 3-1 ATS
YTD 41-18-4 ATS (69.4%)


Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Sportsyack Radio: January 10, 2012


Segment 1: Talk of a BCS playoff system. We also talk about how horrible of a coach Atlanta Falcons' coach Mike Smith is, and who ever gave Matt Ryan the nickname "Matty Ice" in the first place.
http://www.box.com/s/27ng0186netuhdxgvk0t


Segment 2: Irv, "The Legend" from Vegas calls in, talks about the Bama/LSU game, his thoughts on this weekend's NFL playoff games, congratulates Yack's hot ATS run, and manages to call Papa Yack a "fat fuck".
http://www.box.com/s/i7pj4l9hzmgte9grghlu


Segment 3: Tebow Time. We also talk about the unintended consequences of the NFL's rules and regulations, relative to trying to protect the players' heads, and we talk about the horrible officiating.
http://www.box.com/s/aernjgly588nmyphjf4j


Segment 4: We talk about who we like in this weekend's games, relative to the point spreads.
http://www.box.com/s/hh86lnkjry3rmzi93jfy


As the Legend mentions, we continue to pound the number in our NFL picks. 41-18-4 ATS the number, equates to 69.4% for the year, which according to the Legend, would've been good enough for 2nd place in the Las Vegas Hilton's yearly point spread contest. Look for this weekend's picks to be up by Friday afternoon.

Also, our boy Beaver in Sterling (@Beav4666 on twitter)has his 2012 PGA Tour preview, which we'll have posted Tuesday of next week.



Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Friday, January 6, 2012

Sportsyack Radio: January 5, 2012


Segment 1: The boys return from about a 3 week hiatus, discuss their least favorite holiday of the year. http://www.box.com/s/y3bnrlgn3um5uesf2b3r


Segment 2: The breakdown of the Dallas/NY Giants game. http://www.box.com/s/82ju8b0hzrmaq83gn8ky


Segment 3: Yack Yack discusses meeting DCSportsbog, Dan Steinberg. The boys then discuss Steinberg's article re: the Dallas/NY Giants ratings in the DC market, and also how much it would suck if the Red Zone Channel ever went away. http://www.box.com/s/bqnh8gml55hys6vyt1p2


Segment 4: Frank Beamer's abortion like coaching job against Michigan. Also, the state of VT football moving forward. http://www.box.com/s/q27pe5h5jc93yuhcmqxk


Segment 5: The lowly Wizards and surging Caps are discussed. http://www.box.com/s/rux0vqoun8ooqhxqnuba


Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Thursday, January 5, 2012

NFL Playoffs: Lets Get This (Post Season) Party Started!


Cincinnati(+3) at Houston
This is our least favorite game all weekend. Actually, none of the games this weekend are all that Mila Kunis sexy. But no excuses here, Layne Staley. Its time to jump right into the 2012 Post Season campaign, on a road dog who has a rookie QB, in a game that we really don't like that much. Good Times!!!!

Seriously, this game, relative to sports bettors, is one that will separate the men(us) from the boys (look around the room you're in). But we see quite a few reasons to not lay your cash on the Texans here. Most importantly, is the way in which they finished their season. Three straight losses to close out the regular season, when with three games to go, the Texans had every reason to be winning because of playoff positioning. In fact, they could've earned a 1st round bye, but instead they laid a big fat loser. Three times.

Secondly, the Texans have now played 4 Quarterbacks this season. Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, TJ Yates, and Jake Freaking Delhomme. And don't be surprised if Delhomme makes another appearance on Saturday, as Yates(QB #3) is now nursing some type of shoulder injury.

Don't be scared off by Bengals rookie Andy Dalton. The guy has been solid all year, and if not for some guy in Carolina named Cam, he'd be running away with ROY honors. With almost 3,400 yards passing, completing almost 60% of his passes, 20 TDs to 13 INTs, the rook has been very efficient, and has done quite nicely with the 4-12 team he inherited in September.

The Bengals finished with the 7th ranked defense in the league. They were also an impressive 6-1-1 ATS on the road this year. Take the points, and if you really want to man up, tell your man to stick the juice up his fat ass, and consider the money line. Bengals



Detroit at New Orleans(-11)
We've tried every angle to make us bet the Lions here. Even the, "Lets bet the Lions, since every swinging dick and their brother is jocking the Saints right now." But we still can't find that angle.

I mean, what's not to like about the Saints? They just keep rolling that ass, week in and week out. Over the past 6 weeks, they are beating opponents by an average of 21 points. They have covered the number in 8 straight, and in 6 of those 8 games, they were laying 7 points or more. They were 8-0 ATS at home this year, and have actually covered 11 of their last 12 at home.

The Lions are fun to watch. Last week's shootout with the Pack, the come from behind win 3 weeks ago against Oakland, and last but definitely not least, Redskins fan, their 17 point, come from behind win against Dallas in Week 4. But its the games they didn't win that concern us.

Only one win against a team who is playing this January, and that was against the powerhouse Denver Broncos. Otherwise, they lost every other game against a team who is playing in this year's post season. (Green Bay-twice, Frisco, Atlanta, and New Orleans)

The Lions just don't have enough, and the Saints have plenty. And as big as this number is, a very likely, ho-hum scenario(see Week 13, a 14 point win by the Saints over the Lions)- is all you need to have your ship anchored in Cover Harbor. Brees keeps the ball rolling towards a date with A-Rod at Lambeau Field. Saints



Atlanta at NY Giants (-3)
Never bet against Red Face. How many god damn times do we have to remind ourselves of that advice? Time and time again, we begin to doubt Tom Coughlin's ability to have this team ready to play, and time and time again we slide our man a benny for doing so.

Beginning with 5:41 to go in Dallas 4 weeks ago, the G-Men have been as good as any in the league. Ok, they did have a let down following the Miracle in Jerr's House, but the last two weeks have been impressive. And their defense- their secondary especially, has tightened up over the past few weeks.

After a stretch of getting torched like a landlord lady in a NYC elevator (363 to New Orleans, 369 to Green Bay, and 321 to Dallas), the G-Men's defensive backfield has yielded just 185, 258, and 289 over their last 3 games. And we like what they're doing on the ground. 313 yards over the last 3 weeks, utilizing Bradshaw, Jacobs, and DJ Ware.

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record, and they're 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a road dog of 1-3 points. We also prefer the QB-Coach combo in NY, over the one in Atlanta. Eli's almost 5,000 yards to Matty Ice's 4,200, and we definitely will take battle tested Coughlin in the playoffs over white haired Mike Smith. Coughlin is 5-1 ATS in his last 6 playoff games, and the Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Giants


Pittsburgh at Denver(+9)
We've been back and forth on this game all week, in yet another game in a week of games that we don't entirely love. Ultimately we've concluded that there are too many reasons to not take a pass on a home playoff team getting almost double digits.

We're not going to breakdown the flaws of Tim Tebow. He is what he is right now, and as of late, he's been really bad. However, never sleep on Mr. Due Factor, and that's one of the reasons we're taking the points here.

The Broncos and Tebow, for the most part, have had a horrid last month. In actuality, they should be riding a 4 game losing streak, which would've led them to not make the playoffs in the first place. And as much as all the experts are talking about what Big Ben and the Steelers will do to the Broncos and Tebow this week, we actually think the Steelers are just what Dr. Tebow ordered.

The Steelers, for the most part, and relative to Steelers teams over the past few years, have been a slightly better than average team this year. For starters, they were swept by their divisional foe Baltimore, which included an absolute butt thumping in week 1 at Baltimore. And in their 8 roadies this year, they were an unimpressive 2-6 ATS. So you're asking me to lay almost double digits, on the road, in the first round of the Playoffs?

Secondly, the Steelers are beat up. Big Ben's ankle is still smarting, and as of Friday, its looking like their starting Pro Bowl center, Maurkice Pouncey, is out. Pouncey would join Corner Cortez Allen, Running Back Mewelde Moore, and Safety Ryan Clark, all of whom are out for Sunday's game.

So in summary: Mr. Due Factor, coupled with the Steelers injuries, their dismal ATS road record, especially over the last month of the season (4 point win at KC, 17 point loss at Frisco, and 4 point win at Cleveland), and we will be Tebowing our betting asses off. Broncos


Last Week 2-1-1 ATS
YTD 38-17-4 ATS

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The Nats Need to Pass on Fielder


By. Judge Patrick

I don't understand why the Nats would want to invest big money and 10 years into Prince Fielder. Is 1st base a need for Nats? No. Michael Morse put up comparable numbers(.303/31 HR) to Fielder's (.299/38 HR), and would cost what, a fifth of the price?

More importantly, what does it mean to the current/future Nats if you give Prince Fielder big money and a long term deal? It means that Ryan Zimmerman is going to want $20 mil a year when his contract is up at the end of the 2013 campaign, and he'll be able to command it.

Are the Lerners ready to pay it? Assuming they are, that's about $60 million tied up until 2017 or so in 3 players. (Werth, Zim, Fielder) Around that same time, your young future stars will be full blown stars (if everything goes as planned) and they are going to want their pay days. Strasburg, Harper, Ramos, Espinosa, Rendon, Desmond, JZimmerman, I could go on.

Of those players, which ones will be part of the Nats future, if Fielder is thrown into the mix? Not all of the ones I just mentioned.

Other problems with this deal: I have a hard time believing I'm the only one that doesn't want to be married(long term) to an overweight slugger, at a position that is not a need, in a league where you can't DH.

Also, I don't think it's a good idea to get in bed with Scott Boras the way the Nats have. When the core of your team employs the Bert Sugar of baseball agents, problems are bound to happen.

If 1st base was a glaring need for the Nats, I would understand the move for Fielder. But it's not a need. Personally, I think Michael Morse demonstrated last year that he's capable of being an everyday 1st baseman. And the Nats shouldn't just spend money for the sake of spending money. Signing Fielder to a long term, big money deal, is a desperation type move at a time when they are far from desperate.

Save your money, be patient, and let the team you've built develop. And after considering my points here, and you still want to sign Fielder, do a google search on Mo Vaughn.


Follow us on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

By. Rich Turpin Week 1, Philadelphia "Let me fleece Mr. Snyder first, and then I'll see you in 2018!" The Redskins op...