Thursday, January 5, 2012

NFL Playoffs: Lets Get This (Post Season) Party Started!

Cincinnati(+3) at Houston
This is our least favorite game all weekend. Actually, none of the games this weekend are all that Mila Kunis sexy. But no excuses here, Layne Staley. Its time to jump right into the 2012 Post Season campaign, on a road dog who has a rookie QB, in a game that we really don't like that much. Good Times!!!!

Seriously, this game, relative to sports bettors, is one that will separate the men(us) from the boys (look around the room you're in). But we see quite a few reasons to not lay your cash on the Texans here. Most importantly, is the way in which they finished their season. Three straight losses to close out the regular season, when with three games to go, the Texans had every reason to be winning because of playoff positioning. In fact, they could've earned a 1st round bye, but instead they laid a big fat loser. Three times.

Secondly, the Texans have now played 4 Quarterbacks this season. Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, TJ Yates, and Jake Freaking Delhomme. And don't be surprised if Delhomme makes another appearance on Saturday, as Yates(QB #3) is now nursing some type of shoulder injury.

Don't be scared off by Bengals rookie Andy Dalton. The guy has been solid all year, and if not for some guy in Carolina named Cam, he'd be running away with ROY honors. With almost 3,400 yards passing, completing almost 60% of his passes, 20 TDs to 13 INTs, the rook has been very efficient, and has done quite nicely with the 4-12 team he inherited in September.

The Bengals finished with the 7th ranked defense in the league. They were also an impressive 6-1-1 ATS on the road this year. Take the points, and if you really want to man up, tell your man to stick the juice up his fat ass, and consider the money line. Bengals

Detroit at New Orleans(-11)
We've tried every angle to make us bet the Lions here. Even the, "Lets bet the Lions, since every swinging dick and their brother is jocking the Saints right now." But we still can't find that angle.

I mean, what's not to like about the Saints? They just keep rolling that ass, week in and week out. Over the past 6 weeks, they are beating opponents by an average of 21 points. They have covered the number in 8 straight, and in 6 of those 8 games, they were laying 7 points or more. They were 8-0 ATS at home this year, and have actually covered 11 of their last 12 at home.

The Lions are fun to watch. Last week's shootout with the Pack, the come from behind win 3 weeks ago against Oakland, and last but definitely not least, Redskins fan, their 17 point, come from behind win against Dallas in Week 4. But its the games they didn't win that concern us.

Only one win against a team who is playing this January, and that was against the powerhouse Denver Broncos. Otherwise, they lost every other game against a team who is playing in this year's post season. (Green Bay-twice, Frisco, Atlanta, and New Orleans)

The Lions just don't have enough, and the Saints have plenty. And as big as this number is, a very likely, ho-hum scenario(see Week 13, a 14 point win by the Saints over the Lions)- is all you need to have your ship anchored in Cover Harbor. Brees keeps the ball rolling towards a date with A-Rod at Lambeau Field. Saints

Atlanta at NY Giants (-3)
Never bet against Red Face. How many god damn times do we have to remind ourselves of that advice? Time and time again, we begin to doubt Tom Coughlin's ability to have this team ready to play, and time and time again we slide our man a benny for doing so.

Beginning with 5:41 to go in Dallas 4 weeks ago, the G-Men have been as good as any in the league. Ok, they did have a let down following the Miracle in Jerr's House, but the last two weeks have been impressive. And their defense- their secondary especially, has tightened up over the past few weeks.

After a stretch of getting torched like a landlord lady in a NYC elevator (363 to New Orleans, 369 to Green Bay, and 321 to Dallas), the G-Men's defensive backfield has yielded just 185, 258, and 289 over their last 3 games. And we like what they're doing on the ground. 313 yards over the last 3 weeks, utilizing Bradshaw, Jacobs, and DJ Ware.

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record, and they're 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a road dog of 1-3 points. We also prefer the QB-Coach combo in NY, over the one in Atlanta. Eli's almost 5,000 yards to Matty Ice's 4,200, and we definitely will take battle tested Coughlin in the playoffs over white haired Mike Smith. Coughlin is 5-1 ATS in his last 6 playoff games, and the Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record. Giants

Pittsburgh at Denver(+9)
We've been back and forth on this game all week, in yet another game in a week of games that we don't entirely love. Ultimately we've concluded that there are too many reasons to not take a pass on a home playoff team getting almost double digits.

We're not going to breakdown the flaws of Tim Tebow. He is what he is right now, and as of late, he's been really bad. However, never sleep on Mr. Due Factor, and that's one of the reasons we're taking the points here.

The Broncos and Tebow, for the most part, have had a horrid last month. In actuality, they should be riding a 4 game losing streak, which would've led them to not make the playoffs in the first place. And as much as all the experts are talking about what Big Ben and the Steelers will do to the Broncos and Tebow this week, we actually think the Steelers are just what Dr. Tebow ordered.

The Steelers, for the most part, and relative to Steelers teams over the past few years, have been a slightly better than average team this year. For starters, they were swept by their divisional foe Baltimore, which included an absolute butt thumping in week 1 at Baltimore. And in their 8 roadies this year, they were an unimpressive 2-6 ATS. So you're asking me to lay almost double digits, on the road, in the first round of the Playoffs?

Secondly, the Steelers are beat up. Big Ben's ankle is still smarting, and as of Friday, its looking like their starting Pro Bowl center, Maurkice Pouncey, is out. Pouncey would join Corner Cortez Allen, Running Back Mewelde Moore, and Safety Ryan Clark, all of whom are out for Sunday's game.

So in summary: Mr. Due Factor, coupled with the Steelers injuries, their dismal ATS road record, especially over the last month of the season (4 point win at KC, 17 point loss at Frisco, and 4 point win at Cleveland), and we will be Tebowing our betting asses off. Broncos

Last Week 2-1-1 ATS
YTD 38-17-4 ATS

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