Sunday, September 30, 2012

NFL Week 4 (Continued)...Let's All Welcome Back the Regular Fuck Ups

Norv's "I'm taking a dump" and "We just lost to the Chiefs" faces

San Diego at Kansas City (+1) ***NFL GAME OF THE MONTH***
The AFC West MIGHT produce an 8-8 division winner. And whether that division winner's record is 8-8 or whether it is 9-7, that division winner's name is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Don't be thrown off by Norville's 2-0 start, degens. The San Diego baby blue shirts are the same hapless, under achieving shit bags that Norv coaches every year, and its why he and his road map of a face will not be coaching in Tijuana North by next September. The Chargers drew two chumps in Oakland and Tennessee to start the season, but then last week got absolutely pummeled at home by Atlanta, who flew across country on a short work week to do so.

Kansas City struggled for the first 10 quarters of the 2012 campaign, but somehow saw the light during the second half in New Orleans last week. 21 second half points (including overtime) helped them send the lowly Saints to 0-3, and it was the official coming out party for the league's # 1 overall offense through 3 weeks, and eventual AFC West champs.

The Chiefs have covered 6 of last 8 against the Chargers, they've won 2 straight versus San Diego at Arrowhead, and the home team is 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Total players take note: the Chiefs have played 9 straight unders against the AFC West and the Chargers have played 6 straight unders following a double digit loss at home. Chiefs win 24-19.

New England  at Buffalo(+4)
Belichick and crew are a wounded animal right now. Two straight losses and its the first time they've been under .500 since early 2003. Prior to last year's game in Buffalo, in which the Patriots rolled out to a 21-0 lead before eventually losing 34-31, they had beat the Bills 15 straight times. That's kind of dominating.

But things are not right through 3 weeks in Foxboro. Brady has only thrown 4 touchdowns and he's been sacked 7 times. The quick slant go to Wes Walker is gone folks, sorry to report, and  both of Brady's TE options are hurt. Aaron Hernandez has been out, and now Gronk the porn star banger, and future broke former athlete, has injured his hip. Not to mention that Brady's blindside protector Logan Mankins didn't practice all week.

There were high hopes for Buffalo coming into the season, and they've responded well after getting BLOWED out in week 1 by the Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson, and Fred Jackson are ready to assume the duties as rulers of the AFC East. And today's win against an older, banged up team that they're no longer intimidated by, will go a long way towards that statement. 27-21 Bills.

Washington (+1) at Tampa Bay
Hopes were high in DC following RG3's impressive debut in New Orleans 3 weeks ago. A week 1 dominating win at New Orleans had the DMV thinking real big things.  But that was tempered real quick when us Skins fans realized that our Special Teams unit still resembles a Benny Hill Show skit and our defense is as competent as a Fox News film editor, whose working the 7 second delay button.

The Redskins offense has been impressive this year, and it's still the hope we hang our burgundy and gold hats on. RG3 HAS been impressive, and Skins rookie running back Alfred Morris has not been too shabby either. The 6th round draft pick is averaging almost 4.5 yards/carry, and is on pace to rush for over 1,400 yards.

Tampa plays their 3rd straight game against the NFC East. And through 3 weeks, they have the honor of having rushing and passing defenses on the polar opposite ends of each other. The Bucs have the #1 rushing defense in the league, yet their passing defense ranks DFL at  32nd. RG3 has another huge road game against an NFC South opponent, and the Redskins secondary gets healthy against Josh Freeman. The Bucs have lost 4 straight ATS the week before going into their bye week.  26-17 Redskins

Last Week          1-3         ATS
Thursday night    1-0         ATS
YTD                     7-4-1      ATS
Since 2010           82-45-8  ATS (65%)

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Week 4 NFL Football: Lets All Welcome Back the Regular Fuck Ups

In honor of the Ryder Cup this weekend, the NFL
is letting Jose Maria Olazabal Referee tonight's game.
Cleveland (+12) at Baltimore
The NFL cares about their players. Actually, they don't. But bringing back the regular Refs, coupled with Roger Goodell's awkward April handshakes/hugs with newly drafted players on draft night, certainly make it seem like the do, so let's just go with it.

Seriously, is there anything more awkward than some 50 something year old whitey/ginger, trying to be cool and do the hand shake/hug with some 22 year old brother. who would just assume kick his hypercritical white ass? No, there isn't. Which brings me to NFL's Week 4 Thursday night snooze fest.

Thursday night football in September is for Georgia Tech/ Virginia Tech, not the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. I just can't get into Thursday night NFL football when its still in the 80's, and I'm sipping cocktails poolside in the OBX. But since the NFL cares, I guess I'll care, so let's get onto the all important matter of pounding our man.

The Browns have been in every game they've played-errrrr, lost this year. They should've beat the overrated Eagles (playoffs last year), hung around with a very offensive minded Cincinnati Bengals (playoffs last year), and hung with, but then gave way to the Buffalo Bills (playoffs this year- you heard it here first). Secondly, the Brownies don't just lay down and die in divisional tilts, nor in the role as road dog. They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus the AFC North, and they're 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road.

The Black Crowes might not be Hard to Handle, but they are certainly a tough team to figure. They looked impressive in week 1, with a dismantling of the before mentioned Bengals, then somehow lost a game to the before mentioned overrated Eagles that they should've won, and then just Sunday night (as in 4 nights ago), won a last second thriller against Conference foe New England.

Insert: let down, trap game, whatever you want to call it- just pick your poison, B-more.

That alleged killer Ray Lewis might be good at screaming like a crazy mother fucker at his teammates prior to the start of games (and you can set an egg timer until Bristol's cameras pan in on him doing so tonight), but him and Ed Reed are another year older, and Baltimore's once scary defense is now yielding over 400 yards and 22+ points per game. Trent Richardson runs well enough to allow Brandon Weeden to feel comfortable enough to complete some meaningful passes. Browns stick around, but lose 22-13.

Last Week      1-3        ATS
YTD               6-4-1      ATS
Since 2010     81-45-8  ATS (64%)

Happy 21st birthday, Nevermind!

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

The Possible "Penalties" for the AL and NL East Runner Ups

Davey Ain't Kiddin'
One thing that is becoming absolutely clear as the 2012 MLB season winds down, and one of Davey Johnson's favorite talking points, is the benefit of winning one's division. MLB's first season of awarding two wild card spots per League, is creating a plethora of scenarios in which teams could be playing multiple play in or tiebreaker games, just to qualify for the initial 5 game post season series.

Take for instance the American League and National League East divisions.

In the AL East, the Yankees hold a 1.5 game lead with 7 games to go (The Yankees actually have 8 games left, and are 2 up in the all important loss column). In the NL East, the Nationals have a 4 game lead with 8 games to go, and still appear to have the division locked up. But baseball can be a funny game sometimes, and for the sake of this blog and argument, lets talk about what would happen if one or both of these divisions finished 162 games with two teams on top with the same exact records.

If this were to happen, there would be a one game tiebreaker to determine the division winner. The site of the tiebreaker game is determined by who has the better head to head record.

In the AL East, the Yankees and Orioles played their 18 game head to head match ups to a 9-9 tie. And per MLB tie breaker rules, the tie breaker for this scenario is then based on who has the better intradivision win percentage. As of this posting, the Orioles have a slight advantage, and would host the game. In the NL East, the Nationals won the season series with the Braves 10-8, so the Nationals would host the one game tiebreaker.

Now in the NL East, both the Nats and the Braves have clinched at least a wild card berth. And for the sake of this discussion, we'll assume that the Yankees and Orioles will do the same. So now let's talk about where this becomes pretty penal.

The loser of these divisional tie breaker games, will then have to turn around and play a one game Wild Card play in game the very next day. In the case of the NL East, if the Braves were to lose the divisional tie breaker, they would also have to travel (back to Atlanta) to play the WC play in. If the Nats were to lose the divisional tie breaker, they would have the benefit of playing the WC play in game at home.

The American League East situation is less clear because of the records of multiple teams involved being so close. And there are some real scenarios that involve either the Orioles or Yankees- whomever were to lose the divisional tie breaker game, then having to fly out west and play the A's (or even the Angels) the very next day.

Now stay with me here. That is a 48 hour stretch- from the time you play your last regular season game of the year, thinking you have a chance to win your division out right, to then having to play a divisional tie breaker the very next day, to THEN having to play a 1 game WC play in game the day after that, and in some cases traveling, or even worse- flying across country to play it!

That my friends, is brutal.

That is 48 hours and 3 games of throwing everything you got at your opponent, to get a chance to play in a 5 game post season series. And it seems extremely penal for the team who survives this, and its a HUGE advantage for the WC 2 seed who just lays in wait for their opponent. Its an extra day of rest for their entire team, especially their pitchers.

And if you're one of these East teams who survives the (1) tie breaker and the (2) play in games, what exactly will that team have left in their tank moving forward into the actual post season? Probably not much.

Like Davey keeps saying, you better win your division. And based on all of the scenarios, you better do so within the 162 game regular season schedule.

Friday, September 21, 2012

NFL Week 3: Natitude and Another Typical Face Smash of Your Man's Face

Definitely Not a Dan Snyder Production

Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee
The gold toofed wonder Chris Johnson is in the second year of mediocrity following a huge contract extension prior to the start of last year. Last year's 1,047 yards rushing, was about half of what he did in 2009, when he ran for just over 2,000 yards, propelling him to the top of everybody's fantasy draft boards. However, in the first two games of this year,  CJ has just 21 yards rushing on 19 attempts, and has publicly attributed that feebleness to his O-line's inability to create running lanes.

The Lions first two games weren't cupcakes. They lost at San Francisco, who arguably might be the best team in the league, and they beat a chippy (don't you love that word?) St. Louis Rams team, who through two weeks under Jeff Fisher, appear to no longer be the league's doormat. Speaking of Jeff Fisher and doormats....

The Titans are awful. Jeff Fisher's departure created a huge void on many levels, even if we're just talking normalcy in Nashville. The dude was the longest tenured coach in the NFL until his departure in early 2011. This is no longer the smash mouth, step on your face and kick your ass Tennessee Titans. Couple that with Chris Johnson's fat bank account and skinny production numbers- on top of what most definitely is going to be friction b/w him and his blockers, and you have a recipe for a mutiny.

The Lions are still one of the best 4 or 5 teams in the NFC. They seem to have gotten lost in the shuffle of conversations about the 49ers, Packers, Giants, and Eagles. But Matthew Stafford and the boys from Detroit Rock City are still alive and kicking, and this game my friends, is going to be a first class boat race. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games, and Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Detroit BIG, 34-9.

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-9)
Its the Jekyll and Hyde Dallas Cowboys,  ladies and  gentlemen. Open up the season with an administered beat down to the G-men up in the Meadowlands, and then go up to Seattle and play football like old people f**k. That's Dallas in a nutshell. But thanks to your boy, who is 2-0 picking ATS in Dallas' first two tilts this year, I gotcha covered whether betting with or against those bastards.

The Bucs might be a more competitive team this year, and you could make a case that they could be 2-0. But when you squeek by a Carolina team that obviously (based on Thursday night's "performance" at home against the Giants) is still average to below average, and you give up 25 points in the 4th quarter to the Giants, enroute to losing a game you probably should've won, I've got to temper my expectations.

Look for Tony Romo and crew to have a monster afternoon against the second worst defense in the league. And don't expect Josh Freeman and his crew to have a field day like he did last week against a very average Giants defense. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 or more points. Romo throws no less than 3 TDs, and Freeman turns the ball over no less than 3 times. 30-13 Cowboys.

NY Jets at Miami (+1)
Over the last year and a half, Rex Ryan has filmed foot porn of him and his wife, lost about 1,000 lbs, and traded for Tim Tebow. But what that former fat f**k hasn't been doing over the last year and a half is WINNING. Following a couple years of promise in '09 and '10, and getting the hopes up of nerds like Mike Greenburg,  the J-E-T-S: Jets are back to being an average football team. (9-9 since)

The Dolphins have put a good game plan together through two weeks to acclimate rookie QB Ryan Tannehill into the NFL, and to not have the entire game on his shoulders. They're pounding the rock to the tune of 171 yards/game, and following a rough Week 1 romp at the hands of a very good  Houston Texans team, Tannehill played an efficient game against Oakland in last week's victory.

Miami has won two of the last three meetings between these two SU, and in those last three the UNDER has been a big fat winner each time. Expect the Dolphins to squeak out another low scoring affair, and then cue the press to begin hammering Rex "I traded for Tim Tebow, but Mark Sanchez is still my guy" Ryan with the "When will we see Tim Tebow under center?" questions. 13-10 Dolphins.

Cincinnati (+3) at Washington
The Redskins secondary was suspect entering the 2012 campaign, and following the season ending injuries to both Adam Carriker and Brain Orakpo, that suspect secondary is going to be arrested and thrown into an orange jumpsuit.

Jim Has-errr, Raheem Morr-errr, Jim Haslett's defense- or whomever is running that side of the ball, has yielded 810 yards and 63 points through two games. And on top of that, Danny Smith- the greatest Special Teams coach in the history of Special Teams coaches, who could pretty much name his salary and position with any team in the National Football League- and his special teams unit has given up 14 points in two weeks as the result of two blocked punts in both Weeks 1 and 2. But let's not let the facts get in the way of opinion here, folks.

The Redskins have definitely got a shot in the arm from RG3, and the future definitely looks bright. But super endorser Griffin can't block and tackle, on top of his  already scramble, run, and passing duties. The Skins have been offensively exciting through two weeks, but game film will temper some of what RG3 will do moving forward, and the Skins before mentioned defense is a disaster on and off the field.

The Bungholes might not be as good as I had handicapped them to be prior to the start of the season. Their defense has also yielded a lot. 869 yards and 71 points allowed through 2 games is embarrassing. However,   this team was 7th in the league overall last year, and I would expect this year's unit to get closer to that number as the year progresses. A date with a rookie QB might help.

Marvin Lewis and crew were a very impressive 6-1-1 ATS on the road last year, and Mike Shanahan and crew have lost 6 straight games in the friendly confines of Fed Ex Field.  Bengals win 33-21.

**With regard to last week's TB/NYG game, the line moved from TB (+7)-which is what it was when I posted last week's picks,  to (+8.5 or 9) by kickoff, and most of you should've got a big fat W. However, for the sake of records and to not create a "funny business" type atmosphere around my phenomenal prognosticating, I will count that game as a push, even though it ended up being a win.**

Last Week       2-0-1 ATS
YTD                 5-1-1 ATS
Since 2010       80-42-8 ATS (66%)

Thursday, September 20, 2012

BT Sports Radio: Episode 5

00:00- 13:00
The guys discuss the NFL scab Refs.

NFL RECAP: Rich Turpin starts off suggesting we talk about the Redskins loss, but then immediately starts talking about the Monday Night game, and others.

Redskins' WR Aldrick Robinson joins us from what sounds like the bottom of the ocean. 

The guys give out their NFL ATS picks, and Rich Turpin tries to make sense of his 0-6 from the week prior.

From MASN in Baltimore, Steve Melewski joins the guys to talk about the amazing season of smoke and mirrors that the Orioles are having.

Jabby's Nuggets

Turpin's "Whatcha Know?" segment.

Friday, September 14, 2012

NFL Week 2: We Just Can't Get Away From Them Barking Dogs

Tampa Bay (+7) at NY Giants
From the prognosticators I read and listened to prior to the start of the regular season, I began to realize that I was one of the few people who was concerned about the post-Super Bowl hangover in New York. Not to mention what I feel has been the G-men's style of relying on the one outer. Both in 2007 and last year, the G-men had to run the table at the end of those respective seasons, just to get into the post season. And lets not forget last year's boat races (TWICE) to the lowly 5-11 Redskins.

I'm not calling last year's (or 2007's) Championship season an anomaly, but take the previous mentioned bullets, couple them with the Giants 27th overall ranked defense from last year, and you do have to take pause.

Tampa Bay did a great job to contain Cam Newton last week. They all but shut him down in the first half, forced two untimely picks, and held him to just 4 yards total when Cam used his feet. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bucs pounded the rock for 130 yards on the ground, and although Josh Freeman didn't put up monster numbers,  he was very efficient and he didn't turn the ball over.

The Giants got owned by Dallas in Week 1. The 24-17 final score was not reflective of how that game really went. Dallas pretty much kicked their asses. The Cowboys had 143 yards on the ground, they sacked Eli 3 times, out-gained NY 433 to 269, all while being flagged 9 more times then the Giants were. Tidbit: Bucs Offensive Coordinator Mike Sullivan was Eli Manning's position coach last year, and Bucs Defensive Coordinator was the Giants' DC just three years ago. Two tangibles that favor Tampa. Giants win on last second field goal, 23-20.

Oakland at Miami (+1)
To any of my Las Vegas resident brethren readers (The Legend, Norman), I'd run down to your favorite betting parlor and get down on this game before it goes Pick'em. You want to talk about getting f**ked by the schedule? The guy whose number 1 priority is player safety- (insert Jackie laugh) Roger Goodell, gave the Ray-duzz the final game in the week 1 schedule (10pm EST start Monday night), and then he has them flying across country for the dreaded 1pm EST kick this Sunday.

"Thanks, dick!"- some crazy bastard from the Bay Area, dressed in silver and black war paint, who probably has no less than 2 warrants out for his arrest.

How much of a factor is this scheduling ream job? Since 2002, West Coast teams flying across country to  play a game with a 1pm EST kickoff (not to mention, having played MNF and lost a day of practice), lose SU 71% of the time. And last year these Ray-duzz lost 100% of the time in this situation. They played well versus Buffalo in week 2, but eventually blew a 21 point lead on their way to a loss. And their second 1pm EST tilt was to these Miami Dolphins in week 13, and the fish boat raced them to the tune of 34-14.

As I mentioned, I expect this spread to be a pick by kickoff. However, as of now, Oakland is the slight favorite and the favorite role is one they don't really care for (3-17-1 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite). Lastly, the Raiders- dating back to the finish of last season, have lost 5 of their last 6 games SU. The story, IMO, not getting as much run as it should: The ginger from USC via Cincinnati isn't exactly working out, Ray-duzz fan. Miami wins 26-14.

Dallas at Seattle (+3)
Here is a list of some of Seattle's home covers from  last year: Atlanta, Philly, San Francisco, and Baltimore. Three of those four teams made the post season, and of those 4 covers- Seattle won two of them out right- against Philly and against Baltimore.

I was all over Dallas last week, and there was nothing flukey about  the beat down they gave the G-men in their season opener. However, Dallas- like the Redskins, is going to have to win more than one game for me to think the culture has changed in Big D. This is a team who traditionally has played poorly here (lost two straight, including Tony Romo's infamous botched hold during '07 playoffs), and although the Boys did lay the wood on the road last week, they've not exactly been road warriors.

A fan's perspective of Tony's botched snap in 2007. Parental Discretion Advised, Cowboys fans.

In the 2011 campaign, Dallas had a 3-5 road record, and of their 3 victories on the road, they only won by more than 3 points one time. (at Tampa) Their other two road wins were 3 point wins at SF and at Washington.

Seahawks' rookie QB Russell Wilson didn't exactly light it up in Arizona last week. He turned the ball over twice, was sacked three times, and only threw for  153 yards. However, he did lead the Seahawks down the field with less than 5 minutes to go, and got them in a position to score in the final minute of play. The Seahawks also gained 115 yard on the ground, and their defense stymied the Cardinals to the tune of just 43 yards rushing.

Dallas did have the benefit last week of playing a Giants team whose defense isn't exactly the Steel Curtain. This won't be the case this week, as they face a Seahawks team who held Arizona to just 253 total yards, reminiscent of their Top 10 defense from 2011.  Total players: Dallas has played 6 of their last 7 games under. Seahawks win 22-19.

In closing: we like almost every dog on the card this week. Good luck and ruff-ruff...

Last Week        3-1 ATS
YTD                  3-1 ATS
Since 2010       78-42-7 ATS (65%)

Follow this blog on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

BT Sports Radio: Episode 4

Jabby, Rich Turpin, and Yack Yack in another episode of the highly rated, frequently accessed, massively downloaded BT Sports Radio. Listen to the show that has crashed Super Producer THOM C. Block's EYES Radio site, and caused Kim Kardashian to consider banging one of these whiteys.

(00:00 to 25:32)  Show intro, the fellas break down Redskins/Saints. Yack can't understand why Danny Smith seems to get a pass for what appears at times to be an incompetent ST unit.

(27:40 to 56:13)  Turpin crows about how he took Jabby and Yack's money in the Redskins/Saints game. Yack did kill it in the ATS picks (3-0 in show contest/ 3-1 in the blog), however Jabby and Rich share the lead in the SU contest, hitting all 3 of their games. They then give out their ATS and SU NFL picks for Week 2. The fellas were then joined by Washington Post's Gene Wang who broke down the Week 1 fantasy action.

(59:00 to 1:14:25)  Dan Steinberg from the DC Sportsbog joins the guys, and Yack and Jabby are smitten.

(1:15:10 to 1:33:10)  Jabby's Weekend Sports Nuggets: a wrap up of all sports.

(1:33:10 to 1:38:28)  A few words regarding the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

(1:38:28 to 2:01:24) Turpin's "Whatcha Know?" segment. The three chime in on news and entertainment stories, while Super Producer THOM plays fart and obnoxious laugh sound effects. Also, Carnac the Magnificent makes an appearance.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

NFL Week 1: "Let's Get Some Hookers, Fellas!"

Washington at New Orleans(-9)
The only thing that would be more shocking than a group of high school seniors who are trying to get laid while on a sports team trip out of state, (FYI: least shocking story of the year, you f**king simpletons! Now leave the story alone, and pat the little bastards on the back-atta boys!) would be if RG3 and his young band of Redskins, marched right into the Superdome on Sunday and left with a W.

It's just not going to happen, Redskin nation. In fact, for all you survivor pool geeks, this is the game I'd have on my radar.

And as this point spread has been going up and down like a yo-yo all week, contingent on what Roger Goodell decides or what a three man panel decides or whether or not John Travolta is banging dudes this weekend or settling for that beard Kelly Preston, it really doesn't matter what the number is. The Saints will cover it.
With or Without Sean, Drew Rolls Sunday

Don't get all caught up in the number, and just focus on the tangibles here. Said rookie QB is not going to go on the road in a dome, in his very first NFL start, and cover the line. I also wouldn't get all caught up in the Bountygate fiasco. Sure, a case can be made that Sean Peyton and Gregg Williams absence will affect this team, but in our humble opinions, the toll of their losses will be felt the most mid to late season. If the Saints were ever going to be ready to play a game, with Bountygate ramifications considered, its going to be in Week 1.

The Saints are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, and more impressive than that number, is the fact that the Saints are covering pretty big numbers in these games. Over their last seven home games, the Saints were laying the following points: 10,7,6,8.5, 7,8, and 13.5. They covered every single one of them.

Drew Brees has a huge day against a pretty weak Skins secondary. And the rookie will play like a rookie would be expected to play under these circumstances. 34-16 Saints.

Philadelphia at Cleveland (+9.5)
In light of the fact that Andy Reid was ready to get back out on the football field, even as the coroner's car was riding away with his son in it, I wouldn't play any angle in this game related to the Eagles not being prepared to play. Because with a coach with that much dedication, they'll be ready. In fact, Reid and his Eagles are 5-3 SU (two of those losses being at Lambeau) and 7-1 ATS, in his last 8 season openers.

The Browns enter this game starting a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden), a rookie RB (Trent Richardson), and a rookie WR (Josh Gordon). In fact, the Browns have 15 rookies on their 53 man roster, and 12 second year players. That's the kind of youth that would make a former DC at Penn State take notice.

There are spots in which you should lay the big number (see Skins/Saints), and there are spots in which you should take it. And this is a spot in which you should take the big number.

We like the youthful, inexperienced, WTF mentality of a Browns team who will be feeding off their frenzied fans- who will still be fired up from their "booing" and cursing during the pre-game moment of silence for Cleveland's least favorite son, Art Modell. And let's not forget, Michael Vick was already injured during the pre-season, and he's always one play away from not being as effective as this point spread would like him to be. The Brownies finished the 2011 campaign covering 6 of their last 7 games. Youth will prevail, or at least  keep them around.  23-19 Eagles.

Pittsburgh at Denver (-1)
Expect a down year from the Steelers this year, and enjoy the fruits of what will be huge underlay lines, until the rest of the non-educated, non-Yack reading general public catches up. Sorry, Big Hair-Big Ass-Big Truck Nation, your team is going to f**king suck this year, and I just don't get this point spread being this low.

Besides the fact that the Steelers are older, beat up, and their field general has other things on his plate these days, as he's an expectant new father- whose baby's mama (I'm pretty sure) is not some loose, hotel TV repair woman- the Steelers were one of the worst road teams relative to their impressive 12-4 SU record during the 2011 campaign. And their last loss of the 2011 season was to these Broncos, on this field, against arguably a much worse QB than their new (but old) guy under center now, Peyton Manning.

Chalk this up under NFL Anomalies 101, because with a record that eventually read 12-5, the 2011 Steelers were an amazing (yet putrid) 2-7 ATS on the road. This included 4 straight ATS losses on the road to end the season- at KC, at SF, at Clev, and at Den. The Steelers are banged up. LB James Harrison and RB Rashard Mendenhall are most likely out for this tilt, and Peyton Manning is a HUGE upgrade over Tim Tebow. The Broncos had won 11 straight season openers before losing last year's opener to Oakland. Expect them to get back to their season opening winning ways, as Peyton Manning will look like he's riding a bike out there. Big H.A.T. Nation will be drowning themselves in their menthol cigarettes and Iron City Beer by 11:30 PM Sunday night. 26-13 Broncos.

Wednesday    1-0 ATS
YTD               1-0  ATS
Since 2010     75-41-7 ATS (64.6%)

Follow this blog on twitter @Sportsyack @JudgePatrick

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

A Wednesday Night Winner: Let The 2012 Bookie Beatdown Begin

"I love the smell of point spread winners in the morning..."
Remarkably, another NFL season is upon us. It seems like just yesterday, that we had our foot on our bookie's throat, as we prepared to give him the curb treatment, ala "American History X".

74-41-7 ATS (documented) over the last two NFL seasons is nothing short of remarkable. Its a staggering 64.3% against the number. In Layman's Terms, if you bet every game I gave you over the last two seasons at $100/per, paying the standard 10% vig on your losses, you'd be up $2,890 right now.

Coincidentally: $2,890 will get you a parking pass, two tickets, two beers and a T-shirt to the next Redskins home game.

So without further adieu (and we'll be releasing another 3 pack of fatties on Friday), lets boat race our bookie in this 2012 season opener:

Dallas (+4) at NYGiants
Don't ask me to explain the method to my madness. I do what I do, and it equates to #Winning. On paper in this head to head match up, the G-Men have won and covered 5 of the last 6. The Cowgirls are also (dating back to last season) riding a 0-6 ATS streak, their last 6 games versus NFC East opponents. So whats to like about Dallas you might ask?

Tony Romo. I'm not over the top in love with him like Colin Cowherd is, but I think the guy is a gamer, and he's definitely (skill wise) the best QB in the league right now without a ring.

I like Dallas at the running back position with DeMarco Murray. He had an impressive rookie campaign, getting the majority of Dallas' carries last year, following Felix Jones' injury. Murray's 164 carries for 897 yards equated out to 5.5 yards per, and I he think he's going to have a big year in 2012.

Secondly, much has been made about Dez Bryant taking a page out of NWA's book, when he 'reached back like a pimp, and slapped the ho' earlier this summer. But here's the deal. Whether or not his mom is or was a hooker, and regardless of the fact that he slapped her like Eazy E used to do pre-hivy, and regardless of how low he likes to wear his pants at local malls, the guy is a baller. As is Miles Austin, who is healthy, and who will be playing tonight. 

Lastly, Dallas went out in the off season and addressed their biggest need; secondary help. Their secondary last year was an absolute shit show (see Terrance Newman) and was responsible for at least three losses that I can think of, just off the top of my head. (In fact, see Dallas at NY Jets- almost one year to the day)During said off season, Dallas signed the best free agent corner available (Brandon Carr) and drafted the best corner available in the draft (Morris Claiborne). Expect these two to compliment a very good front 7 that was already in place.

The G-Men will come out flat, just like they did last year in their season opener in DC. The hangover of what is (remarkably) Eli's second Super Bowl title in 5 years, is going to hang over them just like the clouds that will be hanging over Met Life Stadium tonight. And if rain is a factor this evening, advantage running game- which with regard to the NYG and their DFL, 32nd ranked rushing game from a year ago, won't be doing them any favors.

Dallas comes out firing, in what will be the first of at least 10 wins this year, concluding with at least an NFC East title by season's end. The dog in this series has covered 5 of the last 6. Pound your man here not just by taking the points, but by also playing the money line as well. There will be plenty of celebratory Papa John's pizza for that ass hat Jerry Jones tonight. 27-16 Cowboys.

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BTSports Radio: Episode 3 is embedded below:

*Super Producer THOM sleeps while his woman tells daddy she's prego
*Saints beat reporter Kristian Garic joins the program to talk Saints/Redskins
*Yack, Jabby,  and Rich give out ATS and straight up NFL winners for Week 1.
*Jabby's Sports Nuggets
*Rich tells us about a man horny John Travolta, Carnac weighs in

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