Saturday, September 8, 2012

NFL Week 1: "Let's Get Some Hookers, Fellas!"

Washington at New Orleans(-9)
The only thing that would be more shocking than a group of high school seniors who are trying to get laid while on a sports team trip out of state, (FYI: least shocking story of the year, you f**king simpletons! Now leave the story alone, and pat the little bastards on the back-atta boys!) would be if RG3 and his young band of Redskins, marched right into the Superdome on Sunday and left with a W.

It's just not going to happen, Redskin nation. In fact, for all you survivor pool geeks, this is the game I'd have on my radar.

And as this point spread has been going up and down like a yo-yo all week, contingent on what Roger Goodell decides or what a three man panel decides or whether or not John Travolta is banging dudes this weekend or settling for that beard Kelly Preston, it really doesn't matter what the number is. The Saints will cover it.
With or Without Sean, Drew Rolls Sunday

Don't get all caught up in the number, and just focus on the tangibles here. Said rookie QB is not going to go on the road in a dome, in his very first NFL start, and cover the line. I also wouldn't get all caught up in the Bountygate fiasco. Sure, a case can be made that Sean Peyton and Gregg Williams absence will affect this team, but in our humble opinions, the toll of their losses will be felt the most mid to late season. If the Saints were ever going to be ready to play a game, with Bountygate ramifications considered, its going to be in Week 1.

The Saints are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, and more impressive than that number, is the fact that the Saints are covering pretty big numbers in these games. Over their last seven home games, the Saints were laying the following points: 10,7,6,8.5, 7,8, and 13.5. They covered every single one of them.

Drew Brees has a huge day against a pretty weak Skins secondary. And the rookie will play like a rookie would be expected to play under these circumstances. 34-16 Saints.

Philadelphia at Cleveland (+9.5)
In light of the fact that Andy Reid was ready to get back out on the football field, even as the coroner's car was riding away with his son in it, I wouldn't play any angle in this game related to the Eagles not being prepared to play. Because with a coach with that much dedication, they'll be ready. In fact, Reid and his Eagles are 5-3 SU (two of those losses being at Lambeau) and 7-1 ATS, in his last 8 season openers.

The Browns enter this game starting a rookie QB (Brandon Weeden), a rookie RB (Trent Richardson), and a rookie WR (Josh Gordon). In fact, the Browns have 15 rookies on their 53 man roster, and 12 second year players. That's the kind of youth that would make a former DC at Penn State take notice.

There are spots in which you should lay the big number (see Skins/Saints), and there are spots in which you should take it. And this is a spot in which you should take the big number.

We like the youthful, inexperienced, WTF mentality of a Browns team who will be feeding off their frenzied fans- who will still be fired up from their "booing" and cursing during the pre-game moment of silence for Cleveland's least favorite son, Art Modell. And let's not forget, Michael Vick was already injured during the pre-season, and he's always one play away from not being as effective as this point spread would like him to be. The Brownies finished the 2011 campaign covering 6 of their last 7 games. Youth will prevail, or at least  keep them around.  23-19 Eagles.

Pittsburgh at Denver (-1)
Expect a down year from the Steelers this year, and enjoy the fruits of what will be huge underlay lines, until the rest of the non-educated, non-Yack reading general public catches up. Sorry, Big Hair-Big Ass-Big Truck Nation, your team is going to f**king suck this year, and I just don't get this point spread being this low.

Besides the fact that the Steelers are older, beat up, and their field general has other things on his plate these days, as he's an expectant new father- whose baby's mama (I'm pretty sure) is not some loose, hotel TV repair woman- the Steelers were one of the worst road teams relative to their impressive 12-4 SU record during the 2011 campaign. And their last loss of the 2011 season was to these Broncos, on this field, against arguably a much worse QB than their new (but old) guy under center now, Peyton Manning.

Chalk this up under NFL Anomalies 101, because with a record that eventually read 12-5, the 2011 Steelers were an amazing (yet putrid) 2-7 ATS on the road. This included 4 straight ATS losses on the road to end the season- at KC, at SF, at Clev, and at Den. The Steelers are banged up. LB James Harrison and RB Rashard Mendenhall are most likely out for this tilt, and Peyton Manning is a HUGE upgrade over Tim Tebow. The Broncos had won 11 straight season openers before losing last year's opener to Oakland. Expect them to get back to their season opening winning ways, as Peyton Manning will look like he's riding a bike out there. Big H.A.T. Nation will be drowning themselves in their menthol cigarettes and Iron City Beer by 11:30 PM Sunday night. 26-13 Broncos.

Wednesday    1-0 ATS
YTD               1-0  ATS
Since 2010     75-41-7 ATS (64.6%)

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