Friday, September 21, 2012

NFL Week 3: Natitude and Another Typical Face Smash of Your Man's Face

Definitely Not a Dan Snyder Production

Detroit (-3.5) at Tennessee
The gold toofed wonder Chris Johnson is in the second year of mediocrity following a huge contract extension prior to the start of last year. Last year's 1,047 yards rushing, was about half of what he did in 2009, when he ran for just over 2,000 yards, propelling him to the top of everybody's fantasy draft boards. However, in the first two games of this year,  CJ has just 21 yards rushing on 19 attempts, and has publicly attributed that feebleness to his O-line's inability to create running lanes.

The Lions first two games weren't cupcakes. They lost at San Francisco, who arguably might be the best team in the league, and they beat a chippy (don't you love that word?) St. Louis Rams team, who through two weeks under Jeff Fisher, appear to no longer be the league's doormat. Speaking of Jeff Fisher and doormats....

The Titans are awful. Jeff Fisher's departure created a huge void on many levels, even if we're just talking normalcy in Nashville. The dude was the longest tenured coach in the NFL until his departure in early 2011. This is no longer the smash mouth, step on your face and kick your ass Tennessee Titans. Couple that with Chris Johnson's fat bank account and skinny production numbers- on top of what most definitely is going to be friction b/w him and his blockers, and you have a recipe for a mutiny.

The Lions are still one of the best 4 or 5 teams in the NFC. They seem to have gotten lost in the shuffle of conversations about the 49ers, Packers, Giants, and Eagles. But Matthew Stafford and the boys from Detroit Rock City are still alive and kicking, and this game my friends, is going to be a first class boat race. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games, and Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Detroit BIG, 34-9.

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-9)
Its the Jekyll and Hyde Dallas Cowboys,  ladies and  gentlemen. Open up the season with an administered beat down to the G-men up in the Meadowlands, and then go up to Seattle and play football like old people f**k. That's Dallas in a nutshell. But thanks to your boy, who is 2-0 picking ATS in Dallas' first two tilts this year, I gotcha covered whether betting with or against those bastards.

The Bucs might be a more competitive team this year, and you could make a case that they could be 2-0. But when you squeek by a Carolina team that obviously (based on Thursday night's "performance" at home against the Giants) is still average to below average, and you give up 25 points in the 4th quarter to the Giants, enroute to losing a game you probably should've won, I've got to temper my expectations.

Look for Tony Romo and crew to have a monster afternoon against the second worst defense in the league. And don't expect Josh Freeman and his crew to have a field day like he did last week against a very average Giants defense. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 or more points. Romo throws no less than 3 TDs, and Freeman turns the ball over no less than 3 times. 30-13 Cowboys.

NY Jets at Miami (+1)
Over the last year and a half, Rex Ryan has filmed foot porn of him and his wife, lost about 1,000 lbs, and traded for Tim Tebow. But what that former fat f**k hasn't been doing over the last year and a half is WINNING. Following a couple years of promise in '09 and '10, and getting the hopes up of nerds like Mike Greenburg,  the J-E-T-S: Jets are back to being an average football team. (9-9 since)

The Dolphins have put a good game plan together through two weeks to acclimate rookie QB Ryan Tannehill into the NFL, and to not have the entire game on his shoulders. They're pounding the rock to the tune of 171 yards/game, and following a rough Week 1 romp at the hands of a very good  Houston Texans team, Tannehill played an efficient game against Oakland in last week's victory.

Miami has won two of the last three meetings between these two SU, and in those last three the UNDER has been a big fat winner each time. Expect the Dolphins to squeak out another low scoring affair, and then cue the press to begin hammering Rex "I traded for Tim Tebow, but Mark Sanchez is still my guy" Ryan with the "When will we see Tim Tebow under center?" questions. 13-10 Dolphins.

Cincinnati (+3) at Washington
The Redskins secondary was suspect entering the 2012 campaign, and following the season ending injuries to both Adam Carriker and Brain Orakpo, that suspect secondary is going to be arrested and thrown into an orange jumpsuit.

Jim Has-errr, Raheem Morr-errr, Jim Haslett's defense- or whomever is running that side of the ball, has yielded 810 yards and 63 points through two games. And on top of that, Danny Smith- the greatest Special Teams coach in the history of Special Teams coaches, who could pretty much name his salary and position with any team in the National Football League- and his special teams unit has given up 14 points in two weeks as the result of two blocked punts in both Weeks 1 and 2. But let's not let the facts get in the way of opinion here, folks.

The Redskins have definitely got a shot in the arm from RG3, and the future definitely looks bright. But super endorser Griffin can't block and tackle, on top of his  already scramble, run, and passing duties. The Skins have been offensively exciting through two weeks, but game film will temper some of what RG3 will do moving forward, and the Skins before mentioned defense is a disaster on and off the field.

The Bungholes might not be as good as I had handicapped them to be prior to the start of the season. Their defense has also yielded a lot. 869 yards and 71 points allowed through 2 games is embarrassing. However,   this team was 7th in the league overall last year, and I would expect this year's unit to get closer to that number as the year progresses. A date with a rookie QB might help.

Marvin Lewis and crew were a very impressive 6-1-1 ATS on the road last year, and Mike Shanahan and crew have lost 6 straight games in the friendly confines of Fed Ex Field.  Bengals win 33-21.

**With regard to last week's TB/NYG game, the line moved from TB (+7)-which is what it was when I posted last week's picks,  to (+8.5 or 9) by kickoff, and most of you should've got a big fat W. However, for the sake of records and to not create a "funny business" type atmosphere around my phenomenal prognosticating, I will count that game as a push, even though it ended up being a win.**

Last Week       2-0-1 ATS
YTD                 5-1-1 ATS
Since 2010       80-42-8 ATS (66%)

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