Monday, October 15, 2012

A Monday Night Dog: Denver Needs and Wants it More

Its been almost 72 hours since the Washington Nationals broke mine and many DMVers' hearts. I'm slowly coming around to being myself. I've limited my sports radio listening to nothing since then (sorry, Junkies), and I've limited my twitter time to commenting on Dick Stockton and John Lynch's inept, awful, horrible,  play by play during yesterday's exciting Redskins win. Who the F**K is Robert Griffin, Jr. and who the F**K is RJ3? Enough of this DICK Stockton already!!!!!

But as we all know, life goes on and when the NFL is in full swing, and I'm picking dogs like its going out of style (9-2 ATS this year alone), I can't let down my loyal readers and fellow degens. I'm beginning to feel again, dogg....Ruff-Ruff

Denver (+1) at San Diego
You need to not over analyze this game. It comes down to which team needs it more (see Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions yesterday) to keep up with the pace of their division and their conference. And in this case, its the Denver Broncos.

Denver- who is coming off a road loss at New England, is looking to avoid two losses in a row, falling two games behind what would be the 4-2 division leading Chargers, and falling a game behind the plethora of 3-3 teams in the AFC.

I would start by presenting what Denver has done through 5 weeks. They've been competitive in all 3 of their losses. And they weren't playing cream puffs. A 10 point loss last week at New England, a 6 point loss at Atlanta in which the Broncos spotted the Falcons a 20-0 lead, and a 6 point loss to the one loss Texans. They handled the Steelers and Raiders in their two wins, and I like them handling the Chargers on Monday night.

San Diego is a 7 or 8 win team at most. That's what Vegas said, and that's where I have them. Both their head coach and GM are under the microscope this year, after years of aspiring to be just not good enough. And being just good enough is where they are again this year. Wins against Oakland, Tenn, and the Chiefs are not that impressive. Those 3 teams are a combined 4-13. They were manhandled at home by Atlanta, and lost last week to the (at the time) winless Saints.

I started this post by telling you not to over analyze this game. Otherwise you'd be reading about the Broncos 1-8 ATS last 9 games in October. Or San Diego's 7-1 ATS last 8 games on grass. Or the fact that the favorite in this series is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Throw all that sh*t out.

Norv and crew ARE on the hot seat. They were a putrid 0-3 ATS at home vs. the AFC West last year, including a 16-13 loss to Denver. These are the reasons that their clocks are ticking, and its losses like the one they'll endure tonight, that will have Turner and GM A.J. Smith holding walking papers come January 1. And like I said, Peyton and crew will come in here tonight needing and wanting it more.
Broncos win 23-16.

Yesterday              3-1 ATS
YTD                  13-8-1 ATS
Since 2010      88-49-8 ATS (64.2%)

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