Friday, October 5, 2012

NFL Week 5: Debating Point Spreads Like Its Going Out of Style

I Don't Remember Seeing This Right Hook Connecting
Philly at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Smoke and mirrors, Eagles fan. That's whats going on with your team. I have to hang your 3-1, first place in the NFC East record on something, so that's it; smoke and mirrors. You lead the league in turnovers (12),  you're being outscored 66-83, and your 3-1 SU record could just as easily match your 0-4 ATS record through the first month of the season.

Speaking of smoke (menthol) and mirrors (what they're looking into while teasing their big hair), Steeler Nation is rearing and ready to go. Their Big Hair is teased to the moon, their Big Asses are bigger and more cottage cheesy than ever, and their Big Trucks with their Don't Tread on Me bumper stickers, are ready to run over some mother f**kers.

The 1-2 Steelers are coming off their bye week following a tough last second loss to the lowly Oakland Raiders. Mike Tomlin's troops have two west coast losses (Denver is more or less the west coast, right?) and a beat down they administered to the NY football Jets at home. But even at 1-2, Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with a losing record to have a (+) point differential, and statistically, Big Ben and Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain defense are still top 5 talent.

Mike Tomlin is the king of preparation, especially in the face of adversity. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their  last 9 following a SU loss, and they're 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following their bye week. The law of averages catch up with Mike Vick and crew. 24-14 Steelers.

Baltimore at Kansas City (+6)
Wow, this game looks easy, doesn't it Ravens fan? Your team will have had 10 days off by the time toe meets leather here, AND you're facing an inferior team who looked dreadful last week in a home loss vs. divisional foe San Diego, in a game in which the Chefs turned the ball over 6 times! Easy winner, right?

Play the wounded animal angle here, degens. As I've gone on record and will continue to state, the Kansas City Chiefs ARE a good football team, and they WILL WIN the AFC West. I'd expect a very focused Chiefs team who does not want to drop to 1-4, and for all intents and purposes, be done. This is a must win, and I'll take my chances with them following the worst possible game they could've played, back at home catching a touchdown.

The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 verses teams with losing records, and they also have a tendency to lay an egg on the road verses non-divisional opponents, most of whom suck. Last year they were 1-4 ATS on the road versus non-divisional opponents, and of those games, they lost 4 of them straight up- to Seattle, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and San Diego. Chiefs win out right 31-21.

Falcons at Redskins UNDER 51.5
The Redskins defense ranks a lowly 29th. The undefeated Falcons defense is nothing to write home about either, especially in light of their blemish free record, at 16th. But if we focus just on the Redskins, and if I could point out some stats in two games this year, and their totals from last year, you'll be all in with me here.

The Redskins defense has shown signs. They dominated the first halves both against New Orleans (163 yards allowed, and technically just 7 points yielded) and last week against Tampa (126 yards and 6 points allowed). And the Redskins, though a much improved offense through 4 weeks, are traditionally not a team who plays in big TOTAL games.

Granted, they have played 4 straight OVERS this year, and have even done so with a total of 49.5 (vs. Cincy). However, going back to last year, this team played in 6 games in which the total was 45 or higher, and only 1 of those 6 games went over the total. And now through 4 weeks of the 2012 campaign, even with a small sample of what their games are looking like, I'm supposed to buy into this team playing in 50 and 60 point shoot outs each week?

Ain't doing it.

Chalk this up as me utilizing the due factor if you want, but I'm banking on the Shannys to rough up Atlanta's 29th ranked run defense, with a heavy dose of Alfred Morris AND RG3 picking up tons with his legs- i.e., the clock running. Jim Haslett's defense will continue to improve, and I think Atlanta will have problems outside the dome on the first real cold day of the 2012 season (high temp only supposed to be 60). The Skins keep this close, and this game goes WAY under.

Last Week    2-2 ATS
YTD              8-6-1 ATS
Since 2010    83-47-8 ATS (64%)

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