Sunday, October 21, 2012

NFL Week 7: Rambling On About ATS Winners

This guy gets hot chicks and has two rings....#FML
Washington at NY Giants Under 51
I've bet one total all year and it was a big fat winner. That one total ALSO involved the Washington Redskins (Falcons/Skins). And although the Redskins have really opened it up offensively this year thanks to Black Jesus, they're still not a team that I'm ready to peg as playing in 60 point shoot outs every week.

Now obviously they did last week, and 5 of their 6 games this year have gone over the total, but that's why you're reading this column; to get informed, degens.

33, 42, 31, 38, 57, 40, 30, 23, 32, and 41: these are the total points scored in the last 10 tilts between these two teams. That's just one game that got into the 50s over that span. In fact, the G-Men have played UNDER versus the Redskins at home in 8 of their last 9 meetings in the Meadowlands.

Jim Haslett's much maligned and much criticized defense does seem to match up well versus the G-men. They gave up just 24 total points in two wins versus the Super Bowl champs last year, and the G-men RBs have failed to eclipse 100 yards rushing in 3 straight games vs their divisional foe. This is a last minute field goal game, with not a whole lot of scoring. UNDER

New Orleans at Tampa Over 49.5
The game line here seems sneaky low to me. The Saints are coming off their bye week and are also coming off their first win of the year. They seem to me, at least, like a team who has under achieved through 6 weeks. They're only laying (-1) here, and it seems a little light. And when it seems a little light, you can be assured that I don't know shit, Vegas knows all, and Tampa will probably be competitive here.

Tampa is no slouch offensively. They've scored 22 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games, and they've scored in the 30s twice in their last 4 games. Amazingly enough, the Saints with their 1-4 losing record, have scored 24 points or more in EVERY game they've played this year.

These two teams are like a streaky roulette wheel. They've played 7 straight unders following 5 straight overs. But barring a gulf coast down pour during this tilt, this will be a track meet, so you will need to move all of your chips to the OVER side of the wheel. 41-37 final.

New York Jets at New England (-10.5)
Roger Goodell and the NFL are more or less giving a big F you! to all the Red Zone subscribers here, with just two games on the slate for 4 pm Eastern. And this is one of them. That's the kind of scheduling snafu you encounter when you force feed horseshit, un-motivated Thursday night football on the fans, prior to Thanksgiving, coupled with the bye weeks that have now kicked in. Thanks, dick.
The Commish talking about the size of his own penis

Myself and the rest of the country are waiting for the Patriots to snap out of it. The curiosity surrounding this  team and what exactly they were made of began with their week 2 loss at home to Arizona. Since then, they've had a couple tough losses- both last week at Seattle and the week after the Zona loss, at Baltimore. And not to play the could've, should've, would've game with you, but this team could be 5-1 right now.

The New York Jets are poo-poo. They are a .500 football team since the beginning of last year (11-11). And now the former hefty head coach of the Jets who likes to lay gobs of it all over his wife's feet while in public parks, is talking about implementing Tim Tebow into the equation at running back. Is that supposed to scare the Pats, Rex? Is that some kind of Halloween type ploy, like Boo! I don't think King Hoodie and Chiseled Tom are shaking in their boots.

The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC East. They've also handled the Jets in their last two meetings, winning by 21 and 9 points. I don't think the Jets are a very good football team, and with the division now locked in a 3-3 cluster, this is the week Belichick begins to separate himself from the pack. Blowout. 38-14 Patriots.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+1)
Remember last Monday night when I told  you that the Denver Broncos needed the win more than the San Diego Chargers did? And remember when Denver than proceeded to go out and gift wrap 17 points for Norv's boys, who eventually took a 24 point lead into halftime? And then remember creaky voice's team yielded 35 unanswered points to Denver in the second half, and the talking point then went from "F**k you, Yack!" to "God damn, Yack! Nice pick!"? Play that angle here.

Cincinnati needs this game more than the 2-3 Steelers, who are old and banged up and well on their way to a 7-9 season. The BungHoles are coming off back to back losses after starting off the season 3-1, and I still like them to get back to the post season like they did last year, competing for a division that is officially (Sorry, Raven fan) up for grabs.The Steelers have lost 7 straight road games ATS.  Big H.A.T. Nation gets another peak at what mediocre looks like in a season that will produce a sub .500 record.  Bengals win 26-20.

Last Week              4-1 ATS
YTD                  14-8-1 ATS
Since 2010       89-49-8 ATS (64.5%)

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