Saturday, November 24, 2012

NFL Week 12: Beating Our Man's Ass During a Black Friday Shopping Frenzy

Oakland (+9.5) at Cincy
Since when did the Bungholes become a team that should be laying another team close to double digits? They're a .500 football team who though coming off back to back wins, rattled off an impressive 4 game losing streak the 4 games prior, including losses to average Miami and not very good Cleveland. Rubbish....

And as piss poor as Oakland is, they can move the ball (10th in the NFL), and prior to last week they had scored 20 points or more in 5 straight. They might represent the part of the country who beats the shit out of each other on Black Friday while shopping at a f**king K-mart, but I'll dismiss that angle while prognosticating this one.

Bottom line, both of these teams- for all intents and purposes, suck. Give me the sucky team catching a touchdown, field goal, and a hook. The Bungholes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a losing record. 27-24 Oakland in OT.

Buffalo at Indy (-3)
Speaking of sucky teams, did anyone watch Buffalo on Thursday night two weeks ago win in unimpressive fashion against average Miami? Less than 300 yards total offense, the Bills held on to win and cover in a  game that was as boring as Speilberg's Lincoln.

The Colts are coming off an ass whuppin at the hands of the Patriots who are now riding a 47.5 points per game heater. So I'm willing to give the Colts and rookie Andrew Luck a pass on that one. In fact, I like the bounce back angle a lot here, but its not the only reason I'm thinking the Colts win in possible blowout fashion. The rookie who sounds like Chris Griffin (Family Guy) when he talks, has led the Colts to the 5th best offense in the league.
Andrew Luck sounds like this guy.

A win here by the Colts gets them to an amazing 7-4, keeps them in the AFC Wildcard race, and will keep Andrew Luck's name in the ROY conversation, even after RG3's impressive Turkey Day beat down of the Cowgirls. The Colts are 6-0 SU in their last 6 following a SU loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss of 14 points or more (I likey this stat). The blah Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Chris Griffin and the Horseshoes get it done in big fashion, 34-14.

Denver (-10.5) at KC
I like laying the big number like I like constipation, but I've got to do it here. IMHO, Denver is the best team in the AFC, even better than that freight train New England. And the Chiefs just suck. This is a classic case to Martingale your chips, and play the Chiefs (7 straight losses) and play against the Broncos (5 straight wins), but I just can't do it. The Chiefs are that bad.

Kansas City took their first lead of the 2012 season like 10 minutes ago, for Christ's sake. They've played 6 straight games in which they've scored 16 points or less. In fact, during that span they're averaging a dismal 11 points per. That is f**king awful, Chief fan!

As I said, I think Denver is the complete package. And with a virtual strangle hold on the God awful division they play in, they're in a race with New England and Baltimore to get a first round playoff bye. They've scored 30 or more points in  five straight, and six of their last seven. They've also covered 4 of their last 5 on the road versus a team with a losing record. 27-10 Broncos.

San Francisco at New Orleans (+1)
Pump the brakes, Vegas. Are you effing kidding me? You're going to offer me the Saints as a home dog versus a virtual rookie whose coming off his debut in which he blew his load all over the national stage that's Monday Night Football? Ok, where do I sign up?.. i.e.,  get my bookie on the phone....immediately.

Its funny what the incessant media can do. Re-elect an incompetent ass hat from Chicago, turn a chubby little 5 year old into the next reality show darlin', and crown some kid named Colin  Kaepernick the second coming of Joe Montana. Well Honey Boo Boo this, Mr. President, I'm about to get my Who Dat on.

Please Go Play In the Road...A Busy Road.

Drew Brees and the Saints have won 5 of 6 and have done so in impressive fashion. 28 points or more during those 5 wins, Who Dat Nation has covered 6 of their last 7, and 4 straight ATS covers against NFC foes. Don't look now, 49er fan, but if Seattle gets it done in South Beach this weekend, your division lead is down to a half game. D'oh! 29-17 Saints.

Last Week                         6-0 ATS
Thanksgiving Day             1-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD          15-8 ATS
Totals YTD                        5-1 ATS

YTD                            33-19-1 ATS (65%)
Since 2010                108-60-8 ATS (65%)

"Never underestimate the stupidity of the people in this country..."

Thursday, November 22, 2012

My FAVORITE Holiday of The Year. Your BIG FAT Thanksgiving Day Winners!

Houston (-3.5) at Detroit
Houston didn't look ready to play in their tilt against the lowly Jaguars last Sunday. On the other hand, the Lions played well, but still came up short in their divisional tussle with Green Bay. That's two straight losses for Detroit, and it brings their season record versus teams with winning records to 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.

Houston will be ready to play today against a team who has really lost it's identity. As I've mentioned before,  I'm  not quite sure what's happened to Matthew Stafford and the up and coming Detroit Lions. Was it really Jim Harbaugh's f**k you handshake of Jim Schwartz' hand? The numbers suggest so. The Lions are 9-11 straight up and 7-13 ATS since the infamous post game greeting over a year ago. (you must analyze all information to be a successful prognosticator)

Look for the Texans to utilize the national stage (like they did two weeks ago against Chicago) to erase all memories of their unimpressive OT win against Jax, and to remind people why they're 9-1 and the class of the NFL. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Players are being sat and there's in fighting between the Detroit coaches. The wheels have come off the team who represents the car maker capitol of the world.  30-21 Texans.

Washington at Dallas (-3)
Here is a  worst case/best case angle based on each of these teams' prior opponent/games. Dallas could NOT be coming off a more dismal performance by a team who actually ended up winning the game. They absolutely had their asses handed to them by Cleveland on Sunday, but somehow (with the aid of the non-replacement officials and a questionable PI call) pulled it out. Washington on the other hand, absolutely dominated the in the tank Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was never close. The RG3 Show rolled to a 31-6 victory, and Washington appears to be back on track.

Pump the brakes, Skins' fan. Your team caught the benefit of a team and a coach who didn't want to be there, and a rookie QB making his first start who was essentially thrown to the wolves. You're pass defense is atrocious, and the spark that was for about a half (Brandon Meriweather) is done for the season. And I don't expect Jim Haslett to have an answer for 88 and 82.

As I mentioned, I'm not sure Dallas could've played a worse game. But I don't expect that type of performance today. Tony Romo is an astounding 20-3 in the month of November, and Dallas is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday. The Cowboys are a dismal 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games at the house that Jerry built, but I'm fading that trend today. Reality: two average at best teams are playing in this game. Take the home team laying the generic field goal. 27-19 Cowboys.

New England (-7) at NY Jets
Let's talk numbers: 59, 37, and 45. Any idea?  How about the points scored by the surging Patriots over their last 3 games. In fact, New England has scored 45 or more points 3 times this year. And if you take out their lowest point total of the year (18) and their highest (59), the Patriots are still averaging an amazing 35 points per!

The Jets got off the schneid last weekend with an impressive roadie in St. Louis.  But I still don't like what I'm seeing in NY. There is still lots of team turmoil, they had lost 5 of 6 prior to the Rams game, and New England does own them, having won three straight versus their divisional foe.

Don't get all caught up in the Gronk is out concerns. Brady and Belichek move the ball around enough, and have dealt with injuries before. Gronk's injury is a non factor. This team scores and scores and scores, and this is not a spot (national stage) in which they'll let an inferior team lay the wood nor stick around with them. The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 in the Meadowlands. 34-20 Pats.

Last Week                    6-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      15-8 ATS
Totals YTD                   5-1 ATS

YTD                     32-17-1 ATS (65%)
Since 2010         107-58-8 ATS (65%)

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/20/2012

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday.....

Show open. Hooters girls in studio, and Yack and Rich argue again about RG3 and Andrew Luck. The guys discuss the Thanksgiving Day Redskins/Cowboys game.

Redskins kicker Kai Forbath joins the program. The  UCLA alum has a surprising answer to Jabby's, "Whose got the hottest girls?" question. Yack asks Kai a loaded question, the guys ask him about his smaller kicking shoe, Rich insults Billy Cundiff, Kai tells us where he lives, and Yack tells him that Hooter girl Nina would like to, umm, date him and Ryan Kerrigan at the same time.

The guys recap the NFL and get into their straight up and against the spread picks. Jabby is killing it in the straight up contest, and Yack still maintains the lead in the ever important against the spread contest.

Former NFL QB, ESPN talker, current podcast and Hulu talker Sean Salisbury joins the program (again), and as usual, he is shot out of the cannon. Within the first minute of the interview, Sean puts Jabby in his place by telling him that Jabby's wife has a picture of Sean Salisbury's junk. Salisbury discusses Notre Dame/USC, the QB situation in San Francisco, says if he was Rex Ryan then "Tim Tebow would've started about 3 weeks ago", and Andrew Luck versus RG3. #RadioGold

Rich Turpin's  "Whatcha Know?" produces hijinx as usual. OJ Simpson, Elmo, and Chris Brown's weiner make appearances.


Saturday, November 17, 2012

NFL Week 11: Keeping It On The Level with Missing Passports, Missing Money, Sex Scandals, and Big Fat ATS Winners

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)
Carnac's Answer: Natalee Holloway, the 2012 NHL Season, and Mike Shanahan's passport and lap dance money. Carnac's Question: Name four things that are still missing.....Whoa, Mike. Your passport AND $3,700 in cash on your roadie to Pittsburgh? Was it all in singles? Was the plan to come out and play the worst game of the year to date, then hit up the local Pittsburgh strip joints, shower a bunch of menthol smoking fatties with Dan Snyder's money, and then hop on a bird to Amsterdam? I'm sure we're just minutes away from Mike Shanahan being named in the David Petraeus/Paula Broadwell sex scandal as a whip snapping dominatrix.

Where The F**k is My Money!?!?
The Redskins have lost to a rookie QB 8 straight times when in that spot, the Eagles are 10-3 at the worst stadium in the NFL, and Missing Passport Mike has been in this spot twice (coming off a bye against the Eagles at Dead Ex Field), and lost both times. So you might ask, what's to like about the Skins laying 3 and a hooker?

The Eagles are completely in the tank, and their locker room is a heavily compensated, Redskin-like Free Agency bust, disaster. Vick is on the shelf, the father of the year is halfway out the door, and honestly Jim Haslett- you psychopath looking mongoloid, if you can't get your unit up (Bevis laugh... huh,huh...huh,huh....) following a bye week against a rookie whose making his first start (on the road, no less), you F**KING suck! The Redskins are 0-4 ATS their last 4 after the bye. Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC East. Go against the trends, like I successfully did Thursday night with Buffalo. 30-16 Redskins.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit
I hate to pour dirt on @cublion's Lions, but I'm officially putting the kitties to sleep with this pick. I've given them multiple chances to redeem themselves, but they just don't have it this year. And I'm not quite sure what happened to what I thought was a team on the rise just a couple years ago. Maybe the turning point was Jim Harbaugh's hard handshake of heavy metal music listening Jim Schwartz' hand.

Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. Through 9 games he's thrown 25 touchdown passes. Word is that he threw 4 touchdowns during his bye week, but all 4 were reversed by the back judge who was working the Packers/Seahawks game in Week 3. Let's go to the video tape, Warner Wolf.....

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC North, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 in the month of November,  7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 following their bye, and they've won 4 of the last 5 against the kitties. On the other side of the ledger, the kitties are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus divisional foes. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are kicking it into high gear, and will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl come February. Time to play the trends, friends.  Packers 34-24.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Dallas
I still like the 'Boys to make the post season, and with wins Sunday AND 4 days later against the before mentioned Redskins, it would be officially Game On in the NFC East Divisional race. But its exactly this spot and this opportunity in front of them, as to why I think they'll (kind of) lay an egg here; playing an inferior non-Conference opponent who plays hard and stays in games, even when on the road.

The Cowboys are coming off a big divisional road win, but they are still a flawed team. Tony Romo is still a dope who reminds you so just when you least expect it. Colin Cowherd's favorite Quarterback has evolved into this dude who sometimes looks like the second coming of Roger Staubach, and then at other times looks like Danny White in the 1982 NFC Championship Game at RFK. (Ahhh...the memories)

Tony "The Tiger" Would Rather Be Golfing
In any case Colin, Tony R. definitely has not met your elite level status of QBs. In fact, take a look at the list of QBs through 10 weeks, who have better numbers than the guy who'd rather be at Pebble: Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, RG3 (HTTR), and Christian Ponder.

Elite??.... Uhhhh.....Bevis????

The Brownies are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss in their last 6 in this spot.  And unbelievably, America's Team is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at the monstrosity that Jerry built. Dallas wins this game in not so impressive fashion, 23-19. 

NY Jets (+3.5) at St. Louis Rams
If you've followed this blog, you're probably thinking I'm "Martingaling" the Jets, i.e., taking them until they cover. Well, maybe I am. But the real reason I'm taking the Jets here, is the fact that the Tim Tebow hating general public has piled on the Jets, and the other part of the general public has a casual, "Oh, the Rams played the 49ers tough last week. I'll take this easy winner..."


In summary, the Rams just came off an impressive roadie in which they tied the supposedly good 49ers, and the Jets are everyone's favorite team to take a shit on. Plus, Tim Tebow- the guy who gets into the game like 5 times a week, sucks. This must be a lock, Rams fans.


I'm not making any Rex Ryan likes to f**k his wife's feet jokes here, just play the J-E-T-S, JETS on the money line in addition to getting the 3 and a hooker. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing record. 22-21 Jets...#Ruff.....#Ruff.....#TebowTime

New Orleans (-4.5) at Oakland OVER 54.5
Here is your 4 O'clock "call/text your man and load up" game. Oakland is horrible. HORRIBLE. Follow me here. This 3-6 team, who should be 2-7, some how scored 13 unanswered 4th quarter points against Pittsburgh back in week 3 to barely beat the Steelers in the last minute, but since then its been mostly beat down city;  see losses to  Miami (35-13),  Denver (37-6), Tampa (42-32), and last week's 55-20 beat down at the hands of the Ravens.

Drew Brees and the Who Dats have been on fire since stumbling out from the gate to an 0-4 start. They've now won 4 of their last 5, and Brees has thrown an impressive 15 TDs to just 4 picks during that span. However, their defense can't stop anyone. In fact, the Saints defense is so bad that Jim Haslett hangs out with them when he wants to feel good about himself. (Bada Bing)
Riding a Heater

In the Saints 9 games during the 2012 campaign, they've yielded 24 or more points 8 times. And they're giving up a staggering 469 yards per game. Wow, that is the fatter, uglier, annoying bitch that a Janeane Garrafalo type would hang out with.

Look for this trend to continue, as the Raiders have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games. However, Brees and the Saints will continue their remarkable run after being left for dead following the month of September, and will prevail in a game that might break the Oakland Coliseum's scoreboard. The Saints are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of November. 45-35 Saints.

Last Week                      1-4     ATS
Thursday Night              2-0    ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      13-8    ATS
Totals YTD                     4-1    ATS

YTD                  26-17-1    ATS (60%)
Since 2010        101-58-8  ATS (64%)

Thursday, November 15, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/13/2012 and a Thursday Night NFL ATS Winner

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday....

Show intro. Yack gets beat up because Romney lost and the blog's ATS picks got absolutely pummeled this past weekend. Turpin tells the other guys to "cross off" Kai Forbath as a possible guest, only to have Kai Forbath reply 10 minutes later that he will appear on the show next week. Turpin says that Judge Patrick  "needs to wipe his vagina" and to quit berating him on twitter, and to call in.

The baseball awards are discussed. All three guys admit that Bryce "F**king" Harper is the man. Yack gets giddy talking about the time that Harper stole home plate against that bitch Cole Hamels. The guys talk about what a crappy baseball state Florida is, the Lakers new coach, and Steve Nash's cool hair cut. Also, Yack  might have a substance/anger problem.

@followFRANIE calls in to promote an event at Mother's Grille at Federal Hill.

Turpin didn't know what do with himself this weekend with the Redskins off. He also offers some pretty scientific tests that the NCAA could've done to prepare for the basketball games on the aircraft carriers. THOM's "big announcement".

The "NFL Recap"

The Weekly ATS and SU picks. Jabby continues to kill it SU, Turpin made some moves, and Yack completely Essed the bed.

Jabby's Weekend Nuggets

Turpin's "Whatcha Know?"

Last week was a bit of a debacle for your boy Yack. First the empty chair beat the guy with the weird smile, and then the blog suffered just its second losing ATS week out of 10 NFL weekends. Not good, but not horrendous, and I am seeking redemption. So like the fighter who has just been caught off guard with that left hook you never saw coming, I've picked my ass off up from the canvas, dusted myself off, and I'm about to pound my man's face..... "Whose coming with me?!?!"- Jerry Maguire

Miami at Buffalo (-1.5) and  (UNDER 45.5)
Buffalo is horrible. Let's establish this first. Check that, let me establish first how horrible Thursday night football has been this year. I understand economics and I get that you could throw two pieces of shit against the wall that were affiliated with the NFL and that people would still watch, but come on, Roger! Throw us a bone on a Thursday in which we're not cooking a Turkey dinner.

Reggie Fumbled Kim and Kayne Took It To the House
Anyway, the only team the Bills should be giving points to is the Washington Wizards, if the Bills threw out their best 5 ballers against the win less Zards in a pick up game at the phone booth. They've lost five of their last six, three in a row, and are arguably one of the most disappointing teams in the entire league, relative to their pre-season expectations. However, take a look at who they've played over the last 5 or 6 weeks, and it looks like murderer's row.

Four of Buffalo's last five losses have been to New England (twice), Frisco, & Houston. Those are three teams well on their way to the playoffs- AND all three of those teams are on many prognosticators' Super Bowl  ticket. (Their combined records: 20-6-1)

Miami has lost two straight and they can't seem to get their ground game going. That one brother who used to bang Kim Kardashian's fat ass- (yeah, I know, I've narrowed it down to about 500), Reggie Bush-you know him, right?- well,  he's been fumbling and stumbling as of late. Seriously, the Dolphins are averaging over 100 yards a game rushing for the season, but they're a putrid 73 yards/game over their last 3 tilts. And as impressive as the young phenom Ryan Tannehill has been, I think we're at the point in the season when the tape and book is out on the rook, and he will stuh-ruggle to the finish line.

Buffalo hasn't beaten Miami in Buffalo since the 2009 campaign (Bills are due). Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC East (Time to start leveling out that percentage). Miami has played in 5 straight unders (We're rolling with that trend). 20-17 Bills.

Updated ATS stats will be provided in the blog for Sundays picks. I'm still adding up the juice from last's week's meltdown.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

NFL Week 10: Barking Dogs and a "TOTAL" Beat Down

Denver at Carolina (+4)
Here is Carolina's last 5 games put as simply as I can. Lost by 2, 4, 5, 1, and then beat DC's ass last week in DC. And those losses were to no slouches. Look'em up for yourself. Not much love here from a betting public who loathes Cam Newton and who is just slobber fest in love with the Peyton Manning comeback story.

Look for an inspired Panther team coming off the before mentioned road win in DC, and a tired Denver team who is making their second trip in as many weeks to the Eastern Time Zone. The last time Denver was on the back end of back to back roadies, they slept for the first 30 minutes while the Chargers ran out to a 24-0 halftime lead. Denver sleeps again on the road in an out of conference game, with divisional foe San Diego on the docket at home next week. Consider the money line as well.  20-17 Panthers.

Buffalo (+12) at New England
Why do you like to pick dogs, Yack? Maybe because in this case the betting public is going Tom Brady's way 73% to 27% and New England's defense is ucking fawful. Call me crazy, I  know we just met, but I think Buffalo covers here.

New England has absolutely pollaxed the Bills in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and the  Bills haven't even won in New England since 1999! So the logical thing to do would be to just call up your man and load up on the Pats, right? Don't do it. New England is not the New England of 5 or 6 years ago, or even two years ago. And they're not a lock in Foxboro either, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.

This is one of those games that if you bet New England, you'll be watching another game and by about 1:20 pm EST, you'll see the ticker read Buffalo 7 New England 0, and  you'll be like, "F**K!". OJ Simpson's first professional team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following their bye week. "Ahh, LOOK OUT!!" Patriots 30-23.

NY Jets (+6) at Seattle
Wow, I can't believe I'm  picking another dog. Listen, the Jets are not as awful as the general public-errrr, the New York media would like you to believe. Actually, I just looked at their 2012  "resume", and they're pretty f**king bad. But my question is, when did Seattle become everyone's favorite up and coming team?

Rex Crushes Feet and Rookie QBs
First of all, Pete Carroll is garbage. I've never been a fan of is. He was a schmuck at USC and he's always  seemed like an Eddie Haskell type boy amongst men at the pro level. Secondly, Seattle's rook is not going to have an easy day against the Jets 6th ranked pass defense. And although the Jets- who are coming off a bye and are 9-2 ATS when doing so- did get boat raced the week prior at home to Miami, you need to look at the stats in that game. They held Miami to a total of 236 total yards, and somehow lost 30-9! And the week prior, the J-E-T-S- Jets held Tom Brady to under 300 yards passing in a 3 point loss at New England.

I think that the still chubby guy who dropped a few lbs in the off season,  who enjoys banging his wife's feet in his down time, still has some pride. As does the much maligned and scrutinized Mark Sanchez. The Jets will not lose 3 games in a row, and the pretenders known as the Seahawks will fall back down to where they belong; at .500. Ruff-Ruff, mother f**ker. 23-17 Jets.

Dallas at Philly (+1) and UNDER 44
Did you watch last week's Monday Night Football from New Orleans? Did you see LeSean McCoy run for over 100 yards in the first quarter against a Saints defense that even Jim Haslett laughs at? Did you see how the tone of a game can change with a 99 yard pick six? In layman's terms (or degenerate gambler's terms) that's called a 14 point swing.

Sorry, Cowboy fan. You're the NFL's biggest disappointment this year. You  went out and drafted the best rookie corner in the draft, and then signed the best FA corner available. And your team still sucks. I had you cocksuckers winning the NFC East, and it pained me to make that selection back in August. But all that "the culture in Dallas" talk must have some validity. Jason Garrett is the new Norv Turner, minus the moon like craters in his face. He's an offensive coordinator who can't get it done at the head coaching level.

And speaking of the before mentioned LeSean McCoy. The last time these two teams got together in South Philly,  LM ran like the wind, gashing the 'Boys for 185 yards on the ground. And of the before mentioned Jason Garrett, who will not be donning the Head Coach's head set in Big D next year, he's a putrid 1-7 ATS vs. divisional foes. No shootout here. Philly protects the ball, McCoy gashes as usual, and the Eagles win going away in a game that goes UNDER the total. (Eagles last 8 vs. NFC are 7-0-1 ATS UNDER, and Dallas' last 8 roadies are 7-1 ATS UNDER). Eagles win 26-10

Last Week                    4-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD     12-5 ATS
Totals YTD                   3-0 ATS

YTD                        23-13-1 ATS (64%)
Since 2010             98-54-8 ATS (64%)

In honor of dopes who got re-elected, and of course Colorado's new legislation, The Black Crowes' greatest song.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

BT Sports Radio: 11/6/2012. Rich Turpin's Kool Aid Drinking Gets Exposed

Yack, Jabby, and Rich Turpin got together like they do every Tuesday....

Yack's bulging discs, Rich Turpin's Carolina/Skins prediction from last week gets played back to his chagrin, and then Yack and Rich argue over the Redskins being the league leaders in penalties. Turpin doesn't think the responsibility falls with coaching.

The always interesting and Patriotic Rick Snider from the Washington Examiner joins the program talks Redskins, Breeder's Cup, and historic Washington, D.C.

Rich Turpin hops right back into the "defend the Redskins" mode. Yack gives his theory on the McNabb trade, and finally ends up calling Dan Snyder a jerkoff for his latest promotional event. Jabby does his best family counselor impression to help calm down the room. S.P. THOM asks one of the most complicated questions ever, but then redeems himself by playing more tape of Turpin's pre-season Redskins predictions. Radio gold.

The guys go around the rest of the NFL.

Fan of the show and sponsor Dr. John Baronas calls in, talks about Chuck Pagano's speech to the Colts on Sunday. The good Doc gives a great Joel Osteen like perspective on Pagano's "pep talk".

The guys give out their straight up and against the spread picks for NFL Week 10.

Jabby's nuggets. The guys give their NFL mid-season report cards for players and teams. Rich Turpin continues to sleep on Andrew Luck. College football recap and College B-Ball "preview".

Rich's "Whatcha Know?" segment. News and Entertainment stories.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

NFL Week 9: Bulging Discs, Pinched Nerves, and Tylenol with Codine Cocktails

Yaba Daba Doo, Mother F**ker!
Arizona at Green Bay (-11)
After starting off the season 4-0, the bird who represents the commonwealth of Virginia has now lost 4 straight and they are well on their way to a sub .500 season. That trend will continue this weekend at Green Bay.

The Pack's Aaron Rodgers claims that he had a talk with himself after the Pack lost three of their first five. And starting three weeks ago against the then unbeaten Houston Texans, the guy who claims to have talked to himself has thrown for 11 touchdowns, and I'll give you a hint on how many picks he's thrown during that span; it rhymes with zero.

Zona has battled injury at QB, and I think they now have Red Skelton's red headed step son at the helm. And during Zona's 4 game slide, they are scoring a miserable 9 points per. Yuck!  The Packers are an impressive 11-2 ATS following an ATS loss. Pack in a laugher, 33-14.

Chicago at Tennessee (+3.5)
What part of me telling you that Chicago is a fraud don't you understand? That question was directed at Vegas and the betting public, in case you were wondering. Also, keep trying to tell me how good Jay Cutler is and how he's come into his own, Jon Gruden. Whatever. Cutler sucks and he's got the body language of a spoiled little 13 year old girl.

The Bears are on a 5 game heater that they are well over due to come down from.  Two consecutive wins that were absolutely gift wrapped (Carolina and Detroit) were not lost in the shuffle by this prognosticator. The Lions turned the ball  over 3 times in the Red Zone two weeks ago against da Bears, and Carolina pissed away a 19-7 fourth quarter lead last week before yielding to da Bears, 23-22.

The Titans were riding a 2 game winning streak prior to last week's OT loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. Matt Hasselback, who has taken over for the injured Jake Locker, has been very efficient. And Chris Johnson is starting to look like his old self. Beginning 5 weeks ago against Houston (NFL's #2 Defense), Johnson ran for 141 yards in a loss, ran for 91 in a win against Pittsburgh (NFL's #1 Defense), and went off like a boss two weeks ago in Buffalo (no comment on their defense) for 195 on the ground.

You Going to Bet Your Cash on This Face? I'm Not.
Chicago IS due to lose, and they will lose big here. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC North. This is one of the strongest games on the board relative to all the angles I dissect. I would consider just playing the money line here, and telling your man to stick the vig straight up his ass. Ruff-Ruff, 27-14 Titans.

Detroit (-4.5) at Jacksonville
I'm in the tank for Detroit. They came through for me last week in my ATS October game of the month, battling back from a 17-7 deficit and multiple Megatron drops- including one in the back of the end zone prior to the go ahead score.

Jacksonville is just not a very good team. They're 1-6, for Christ's sake. And I'd ask you to look at what they do against defenses who are competent. 27-7 losers against Houston's #2 Defense and 41-3 losers against Chicago's #5. Well don't sleep on these kitties, stat boy. Detroit has the 7th ranked defense in the league, and as I told you last week,  they will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Want an angle? Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Week 9, Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in the same week. 23-13 Lions.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1)
The Bucs looked pretty damn good two Thursday nights ago in Minnesota. And everyone saw this kid Doug Martin break out, and the Josh Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo looks like it has some potential. I agree with all of these things. However, this is a spot in which the young, upstart Bucs get knocked down, and I think the before mentioned National TV audience performance by the Bucs in Minnesota, has this line a little on the short side.

All Pro guard Carl Nicks is done for the year in Tampa, joining former starter David Joseph on the IR. Tampa's O-line has turned into a carousel of whose who, and whose playing where. And that's not good for Buc fan. Also not good for Buc fan, is being on the back end of back to back roadies. I'll concede the extra days rest from playing on Thursday night, but this specific spot is an ATS loser 68% of the time since 1992.

Oakland is not awful. Following an 0-2 start, they've rebounded for big fat Ws in 3 of their next 5, and have been in every single game except one (they were blowed out, Emmitt,  at Denver).  This stretch included an impressive come back win against Pittsburgh and a loss in Atlanta in a game that they probably should've won. I'll take my chances on them in pretty much a pick'm situation, catching a team who has logged quite a few flight miles over the past 10 days. 28-20 Raiduzzz.

Pittsburgh (+3) at NY Giants
The money is finally starting to roll in on the Steelers. This game was almost unanimous across the Vegas boards, with the Giants laying 3 and a hook to open. And it remained that way until Friday night. Smart money is starting to see what I see when I evaluate this game. And that is, short of the very impressive win in Frisco, the NY Giants- though 6-2 and a top of the NFC East, still seem to be doing so with smoke and mirrors.

Case in point, the last two weeks. The G-men won the turnover battle against both Washington and Dallas 10-4. That is the combined total. And in both of those games, they were lucky to escape with Ws, with practically both games coming down to the final play. How does that happen, fellas? I also don't like how they've let inferior teams take leads and/or stick around with them in the Meadowlands. (See Tampa and Cleveland games)

Pittsburgh, though not healthy, got very healthy last week dinking and dunking it against a High School-ish Washington Redskins' defense. They've now won 3 out of their last 4, and with a very banged up Baltimore Ravens team ahead of the them in their division, I think the Steelers and Mike Tomlin (most underrated head coach in the game today) will continue their playoff march. NYG are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in November, and Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road versus a team with a winning record. I don't care when Pittsburgh is flying into New Jersey, they will  be much the best. 20-17 Steelers.

Dallas at Atlanta (-3.5)
Lots of believers out there in Big D. This line has dropped from (4.5) to where it is now because of all the Cowboys action. I just don't see it. And like Judge Patrick told me the other day and a point I'm starting to buy into, the Cowboys seem to be a team whose talent- as evaluated by most talking heads on radio, TV, and print-  has been completely over valued.

Tony Romo is in the 11th hour of his career, regardless of what Cowboy fan wants to tell you. And the guy clearly sees the forest through the trees. He's got $67 million in the bank, he's relatively healthy, and there is a golf course (or 1,000) calling his name. To put it to you in layman's terms, Dallas and JERR will be looking at QB talent very closely in next year's April draft. (Along with a new head coach)

Atlanta just keeps rolling along at 7-0 while carrying the stigma of a team who can't win a playoff game; hence a stupid low point spread here. Sure, the Falcons could've lost a couple or three of the games that they ended up winning, but they are what they are. And that equates to being the last undefeated team in the league through 8 weeks. That includes last week's dismantling of the supposedly unbeatable Philadelphia Eagles (on the road) following a bye week, and an absolute beat down of Vegas' second choice in the AFC (Denver), in a game in which Atlanta ran out to a 27-7 lead and then seemed to get bored as they let Denver inch back into the game.

Tony Romo will be running for his life as he always does behind one of the worst O-lines in the game, and the Falcons will improve to a perfect 8-0. The favorite in this head to head is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. 30-20 Falcons.

Barking Dogs YTD                    11-4 ATS (Ruff-Ruff)
Totals             YTD                     3-0 ATS
Last Week                                  2-1 ATS

YTD                                      19-11-1 ATS (63%)
Since 2010                            94-52-8 ATS (64%)

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