Thursday, November 22, 2012

My FAVORITE Holiday of The Year. Your BIG FAT Thanksgiving Day Winners!

Houston (-3.5) at Detroit
Houston didn't look ready to play in their tilt against the lowly Jaguars last Sunday. On the other hand, the Lions played well, but still came up short in their divisional tussle with Green Bay. That's two straight losses for Detroit, and it brings their season record versus teams with winning records to 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.

Houston will be ready to play today against a team who has really lost it's identity. As I've mentioned before,  I'm  not quite sure what's happened to Matthew Stafford and the up and coming Detroit Lions. Was it really Jim Harbaugh's f**k you handshake of Jim Schwartz' hand? The numbers suggest so. The Lions are 9-11 straight up and 7-13 ATS since the infamous post game greeting over a year ago. (you must analyze all information to be a successful prognosticator)

Look for the Texans to utilize the national stage (like they did two weeks ago against Chicago) to erase all memories of their unimpressive OT win against Jax, and to remind people why they're 9-1 and the class of the NFL. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on the road. Players are being sat and there's in fighting between the Detroit coaches. The wheels have come off the team who represents the car maker capitol of the world.  30-21 Texans.

Washington at Dallas (-3)
Here is a  worst case/best case angle based on each of these teams' prior opponent/games. Dallas could NOT be coming off a more dismal performance by a team who actually ended up winning the game. They absolutely had their asses handed to them by Cleveland on Sunday, but somehow (with the aid of the non-replacement officials and a questionable PI call) pulled it out. Washington on the other hand, absolutely dominated the in the tank Philadelphia Eagles in a game that was never close. The RG3 Show rolled to a 31-6 victory, and Washington appears to be back on track.

Pump the brakes, Skins' fan. Your team caught the benefit of a team and a coach who didn't want to be there, and a rookie QB making his first start who was essentially thrown to the wolves. You're pass defense is atrocious, and the spark that was for about a half (Brandon Meriweather) is done for the season. And I don't expect Jim Haslett to have an answer for 88 and 82.

As I mentioned, I'm not sure Dallas could've played a worse game. But I don't expect that type of performance today. Tony Romo is an astounding 20-3 in the month of November, and Dallas is an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on Thursday. The Cowboys are a dismal 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games at the house that Jerry built, but I'm fading that trend today. Reality: two average at best teams are playing in this game. Take the home team laying the generic field goal. 27-19 Cowboys.

New England (-7) at NY Jets
Let's talk numbers: 59, 37, and 45. Any idea?  How about the points scored by the surging Patriots over their last 3 games. In fact, New England has scored 45 or more points 3 times this year. And if you take out their lowest point total of the year (18) and their highest (59), the Patriots are still averaging an amazing 35 points per!

The Jets got off the schneid last weekend with an impressive roadie in St. Louis.  But I still don't like what I'm seeing in NY. There is still lots of team turmoil, they had lost 5 of 6 prior to the Rams game, and New England does own them, having won three straight versus their divisional foe.

Don't get all caught up in the Gronk is out concerns. Brady and Belichek move the ball around enough, and have dealt with injuries before. Gronk's injury is a non factor. This team scores and scores and scores, and this is not a spot (national stage) in which they'll let an inferior team lay the wood nor stick around with them. The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 in the Meadowlands. 34-20 Pats.

Last Week                    6-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      15-8 ATS
Totals YTD                   5-1 ATS

YTD                     32-17-1 ATS (65%)
Since 2010         107-58-8 ATS (65%)

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