Saturday, November 10, 2012

NFL Week 10: Barking Dogs and a "TOTAL" Beat Down

Denver at Carolina (+4)
Here is Carolina's last 5 games put as simply as I can. Lost by 2, 4, 5, 1, and then beat DC's ass last week in DC. And those losses were to no slouches. Look'em up for yourself. Not much love here from a betting public who loathes Cam Newton and who is just slobber fest in love with the Peyton Manning comeback story.

Look for an inspired Panther team coming off the before mentioned road win in DC, and a tired Denver team who is making their second trip in as many weeks to the Eastern Time Zone. The last time Denver was on the back end of back to back roadies, they slept for the first 30 minutes while the Chargers ran out to a 24-0 halftime lead. Denver sleeps again on the road in an out of conference game, with divisional foe San Diego on the docket at home next week. Consider the money line as well.  20-17 Panthers.

Buffalo (+12) at New England
Why do you like to pick dogs, Yack? Maybe because in this case the betting public is going Tom Brady's way 73% to 27% and New England's defense is ucking fawful. Call me crazy, I  know we just met, but I think Buffalo covers here.

New England has absolutely pollaxed the Bills in 3 of their last 4 meetings, and the  Bills haven't even won in New England since 1999! So the logical thing to do would be to just call up your man and load up on the Pats, right? Don't do it. New England is not the New England of 5 or 6 years ago, or even two years ago. And they're not a lock in Foxboro either, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.

This is one of those games that if you bet New England, you'll be watching another game and by about 1:20 pm EST, you'll see the ticker read Buffalo 7 New England 0, and  you'll be like, "F**K!". OJ Simpson's first professional team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following their bye week. "Ahh, LOOK OUT!!" Patriots 30-23.

NY Jets (+6) at Seattle
Wow, I can't believe I'm  picking another dog. Listen, the Jets are not as awful as the general public-errrr, the New York media would like you to believe. Actually, I just looked at their 2012  "resume", and they're pretty f**king bad. But my question is, when did Seattle become everyone's favorite up and coming team?

Rex Crushes Feet and Rookie QBs
First of all, Pete Carroll is garbage. I've never been a fan of is. He was a schmuck at USC and he's always  seemed like an Eddie Haskell type boy amongst men at the pro level. Secondly, Seattle's rook is not going to have an easy day against the Jets 6th ranked pass defense. And although the Jets- who are coming off a bye and are 9-2 ATS when doing so- did get boat raced the week prior at home to Miami, you need to look at the stats in that game. They held Miami to a total of 236 total yards, and somehow lost 30-9! And the week prior, the J-E-T-S- Jets held Tom Brady to under 300 yards passing in a 3 point loss at New England.

I think that the still chubby guy who dropped a few lbs in the off season,  who enjoys banging his wife's feet in his down time, still has some pride. As does the much maligned and scrutinized Mark Sanchez. The Jets will not lose 3 games in a row, and the pretenders known as the Seahawks will fall back down to where they belong; at .500. Ruff-Ruff, mother f**ker. 23-17 Jets.

Dallas at Philly (+1) and UNDER 44
Did you watch last week's Monday Night Football from New Orleans? Did you see LeSean McCoy run for over 100 yards in the first quarter against a Saints defense that even Jim Haslett laughs at? Did you see how the tone of a game can change with a 99 yard pick six? In layman's terms (or degenerate gambler's terms) that's called a 14 point swing.

Sorry, Cowboy fan. You're the NFL's biggest disappointment this year. You  went out and drafted the best rookie corner in the draft, and then signed the best FA corner available. And your team still sucks. I had you cocksuckers winning the NFC East, and it pained me to make that selection back in August. But all that "the culture in Dallas" talk must have some validity. Jason Garrett is the new Norv Turner, minus the moon like craters in his face. He's an offensive coordinator who can't get it done at the head coaching level.

And speaking of the before mentioned LeSean McCoy. The last time these two teams got together in South Philly,  LM ran like the wind, gashing the 'Boys for 185 yards on the ground. And of the before mentioned Jason Garrett, who will not be donning the Head Coach's head set in Big D next year, he's a putrid 1-7 ATS vs. divisional foes. No shootout here. Philly protects the ball, McCoy gashes as usual, and the Eagles win going away in a game that goes UNDER the total. (Eagles last 8 vs. NFC are 7-0-1 ATS UNDER, and Dallas' last 8 roadies are 7-1 ATS UNDER). Eagles win 26-10

Last Week                    4-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD     12-5 ATS
Totals YTD                   3-0 ATS

YTD                        23-13-1 ATS (64%)
Since 2010             98-54-8 ATS (64%)

In honor of dopes who got re-elected, and of course Colorado's new legislation, The Black Crowes' greatest song.

1 comment:

  1. you love the phrase "...before mentioned..." - lose a bet or getting royalties on its use?


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