Saturday, November 17, 2012

NFL Week 11: Keeping It On The Level with Missing Passports, Missing Money, Sex Scandals, and Big Fat ATS Winners

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)
Carnac's Answer: Natalee Holloway, the 2012 NHL Season, and Mike Shanahan's passport and lap dance money. Carnac's Question: Name four things that are still missing.....Whoa, Mike. Your passport AND $3,700 in cash on your roadie to Pittsburgh? Was it all in singles? Was the plan to come out and play the worst game of the year to date, then hit up the local Pittsburgh strip joints, shower a bunch of menthol smoking fatties with Dan Snyder's money, and then hop on a bird to Amsterdam? I'm sure we're just minutes away from Mike Shanahan being named in the David Petraeus/Paula Broadwell sex scandal as a whip snapping dominatrix.

Where The F**k is My Money!?!?
The Redskins have lost to a rookie QB 8 straight times when in that spot, the Eagles are 10-3 at the worst stadium in the NFL, and Missing Passport Mike has been in this spot twice (coming off a bye against the Eagles at Dead Ex Field), and lost both times. So you might ask, what's to like about the Skins laying 3 and a hooker?

The Eagles are completely in the tank, and their locker room is a heavily compensated, Redskin-like Free Agency bust, disaster. Vick is on the shelf, the father of the year is halfway out the door, and honestly Jim Haslett- you psychopath looking mongoloid, if you can't get your unit up (Bevis laugh... huh,huh...huh,huh....) following a bye week against a rookie whose making his first start (on the road, no less), you F**KING suck! The Redskins are 0-4 ATS their last 4 after the bye. Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC East. Go against the trends, like I successfully did Thursday night with Buffalo. 30-16 Redskins.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit
I hate to pour dirt on @cublion's Lions, but I'm officially putting the kitties to sleep with this pick. I've given them multiple chances to redeem themselves, but they just don't have it this year. And I'm not quite sure what happened to what I thought was a team on the rise just a couple years ago. Maybe the turning point was Jim Harbaugh's hard handshake of heavy metal music listening Jim Schwartz' hand.

Aaron Rodgers is pretty good. Through 9 games he's thrown 25 touchdown passes. Word is that he threw 4 touchdowns during his bye week, but all 4 were reversed by the back judge who was working the Packers/Seahawks game in Week 3. Let's go to the video tape, Warner Wolf.....

The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC North, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 in the month of November,  7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 following their bye, and they've won 4 of the last 5 against the kitties. On the other side of the ledger, the kitties are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 versus divisional foes. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack are kicking it into high gear, and will be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl come February. Time to play the trends, friends.  Packers 34-24.

Cleveland (+7.5) at Dallas
I still like the 'Boys to make the post season, and with wins Sunday AND 4 days later against the before mentioned Redskins, it would be officially Game On in the NFC East Divisional race. But its exactly this spot and this opportunity in front of them, as to why I think they'll (kind of) lay an egg here; playing an inferior non-Conference opponent who plays hard and stays in games, even when on the road.

The Cowboys are coming off a big divisional road win, but they are still a flawed team. Tony Romo is still a dope who reminds you so just when you least expect it. Colin Cowherd's favorite Quarterback has evolved into this dude who sometimes looks like the second coming of Roger Staubach, and then at other times looks like Danny White in the 1982 NFC Championship Game at RFK. (Ahhh...the memories)

Tony "The Tiger" Would Rather Be Golfing
In any case Colin, Tony R. definitely has not met your elite level status of QBs. In fact, take a look at the list of QBs through 10 weeks, who have better numbers than the guy who'd rather be at Pebble: Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, RG3 (HTTR), and Christian Ponder.

Elite??.... Uhhhh.....Bevis????

The Brownies are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss in their last 6 in this spot.  And unbelievably, America's Team is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 at the monstrosity that Jerry built. Dallas wins this game in not so impressive fashion, 23-19. 

NY Jets (+3.5) at St. Louis Rams
If you've followed this blog, you're probably thinking I'm "Martingaling" the Jets, i.e., taking them until they cover. Well, maybe I am. But the real reason I'm taking the Jets here, is the fact that the Tim Tebow hating general public has piled on the Jets, and the other part of the general public has a casual, "Oh, the Rams played the 49ers tough last week. I'll take this easy winner..."


In summary, the Rams just came off an impressive roadie in which they tied the supposedly good 49ers, and the Jets are everyone's favorite team to take a shit on. Plus, Tim Tebow- the guy who gets into the game like 5 times a week, sucks. This must be a lock, Rams fans.


I'm not making any Rex Ryan likes to f**k his wife's feet jokes here, just play the J-E-T-S, JETS on the money line in addition to getting the 3 and a hooker. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing record. 22-21 Jets...#Ruff.....#Ruff.....#TebowTime

New Orleans (-4.5) at Oakland OVER 54.5
Here is your 4 O'clock "call/text your man and load up" game. Oakland is horrible. HORRIBLE. Follow me here. This 3-6 team, who should be 2-7, some how scored 13 unanswered 4th quarter points against Pittsburgh back in week 3 to barely beat the Steelers in the last minute, but since then its been mostly beat down city;  see losses to  Miami (35-13),  Denver (37-6), Tampa (42-32), and last week's 55-20 beat down at the hands of the Ravens.

Drew Brees and the Who Dats have been on fire since stumbling out from the gate to an 0-4 start. They've now won 4 of their last 5, and Brees has thrown an impressive 15 TDs to just 4 picks during that span. However, their defense can't stop anyone. In fact, the Saints defense is so bad that Jim Haslett hangs out with them when he wants to feel good about himself. (Bada Bing)
Riding a Heater

In the Saints 9 games during the 2012 campaign, they've yielded 24 or more points 8 times. And they're giving up a staggering 469 yards per game. Wow, that is the fatter, uglier, annoying bitch that a Janeane Garrafalo type would hang out with.

Look for this trend to continue, as the Raiders have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games. However, Brees and the Saints will continue their remarkable run after being left for dead following the month of September, and will prevail in a game that might break the Oakland Coliseum's scoreboard. The Saints are an impressive 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games in the month of November. 45-35 Saints.

Last Week                      1-4     ATS
Thursday Night              2-0    ATS
Barking Dogs YTD      13-8    ATS
Totals YTD                     4-1    ATS

YTD                  26-17-1    ATS (60%)
Since 2010        101-58-8  ATS (64%)

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