Saturday, November 3, 2012

NFL Week 9: Bulging Discs, Pinched Nerves, and Tylenol with Codine Cocktails

Yaba Daba Doo, Mother F**ker!
Arizona at Green Bay (-11)
After starting off the season 4-0, the bird who represents the commonwealth of Virginia has now lost 4 straight and they are well on their way to a sub .500 season. That trend will continue this weekend at Green Bay.

The Pack's Aaron Rodgers claims that he had a talk with himself after the Pack lost three of their first five. And starting three weeks ago against the then unbeaten Houston Texans, the guy who claims to have talked to himself has thrown for 11 touchdowns, and I'll give you a hint on how many picks he's thrown during that span; it rhymes with zero.

Zona has battled injury at QB, and I think they now have Red Skelton's red headed step son at the helm. And during Zona's 4 game slide, they are scoring a miserable 9 points per. Yuck!  The Packers are an impressive 11-2 ATS following an ATS loss. Pack in a laugher, 33-14.


Chicago at Tennessee (+3.5)
What part of me telling you that Chicago is a fraud don't you understand? That question was directed at Vegas and the betting public, in case you were wondering. Also, keep trying to tell me how good Jay Cutler is and how he's come into his own, Jon Gruden. Whatever. Cutler sucks and he's got the body language of a spoiled little 13 year old girl.

The Bears are on a 5 game heater that they are well over due to come down from.  Two consecutive wins that were absolutely gift wrapped (Carolina and Detroit) were not lost in the shuffle by this prognosticator. The Lions turned the ball  over 3 times in the Red Zone two weeks ago against da Bears, and Carolina pissed away a 19-7 fourth quarter lead last week before yielding to da Bears, 23-22.

The Titans were riding a 2 game winning streak prior to last week's OT loss to Andrew Luck and the Colts. Matt Hasselback, who has taken over for the injured Jake Locker, has been very efficient. And Chris Johnson is starting to look like his old self. Beginning 5 weeks ago against Houston (NFL's #2 Defense), Johnson ran for 141 yards in a loss, ran for 91 in a win against Pittsburgh (NFL's #1 Defense), and went off like a boss two weeks ago in Buffalo (no comment on their defense) for 195 on the ground.

You Going to Bet Your Cash on This Face? I'm Not.
Chicago IS due to lose, and they will lose big here. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the NFC North. This is one of the strongest games on the board relative to all the angles I dissect. I would consider just playing the money line here, and telling your man to stick the vig straight up his ass. Ruff-Ruff, 27-14 Titans.





Detroit (-4.5) at Jacksonville
I'm in the tank for Detroit. They came through for me last week in my ATS October game of the month, battling back from a 17-7 deficit and multiple Megatron drops- including one in the back of the end zone prior to the go ahead score.

Jacksonville is just not a very good team. They're 1-6, for Christ's sake. And I'd ask you to look at what they do against defenses who are competent. 27-7 losers against Houston's #2 Defense and 41-3 losers against Chicago's #5. Well don't sleep on these kitties, stat boy. Detroit has the 7th ranked defense in the league, and as I told you last week,  they will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. Want an angle? Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Week 9, Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in the same week. 23-13 Lions.



Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1)
The Bucs looked pretty damn good two Thursday nights ago in Minnesota. And everyone saw this kid Doug Martin break out, and the Josh Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo looks like it has some potential. I agree with all of these things. However, this is a spot in which the young, upstart Bucs get knocked down, and I think the before mentioned National TV audience performance by the Bucs in Minnesota, has this line a little on the short side.

All Pro guard Carl Nicks is done for the year in Tampa, joining former starter David Joseph on the IR. Tampa's O-line has turned into a carousel of whose who, and whose playing where. And that's not good for Buc fan. Also not good for Buc fan, is being on the back end of back to back roadies. I'll concede the extra days rest from playing on Thursday night, but this specific spot is an ATS loser 68% of the time since 1992.

Oakland is not awful. Following an 0-2 start, they've rebounded for big fat Ws in 3 of their next 5, and have been in every single game except one (they were blowed out, Emmitt,  at Denver).  This stretch included an impressive come back win against Pittsburgh and a loss in Atlanta in a game that they probably should've won. I'll take my chances on them in pretty much a pick'm situation, catching a team who has logged quite a few flight miles over the past 10 days. 28-20 Raiduzzz.


Pittsburgh (+3) at NY Giants
The money is finally starting to roll in on the Steelers. This game was almost unanimous across the Vegas boards, with the Giants laying 3 and a hook to open. And it remained that way until Friday night. Smart money is starting to see what I see when I evaluate this game. And that is, short of the very impressive win in Frisco, the NY Giants- though 6-2 and a top of the NFC East, still seem to be doing so with smoke and mirrors.

Case in point, the last two weeks. The G-men won the turnover battle against both Washington and Dallas 10-4. That is the combined total. And in both of those games, they were lucky to escape with Ws, with practically both games coming down to the final play. How does that happen, fellas? I also don't like how they've let inferior teams take leads and/or stick around with them in the Meadowlands. (See Tampa and Cleveland games)

Pittsburgh, though not healthy, got very healthy last week dinking and dunking it against a High School-ish Washington Redskins' defense. They've now won 3 out of their last 4, and with a very banged up Baltimore Ravens team ahead of the them in their division, I think the Steelers and Mike Tomlin (most underrated head coach in the game today) will continue their playoff march. NYG are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in November, and Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road versus a team with a winning record. I don't care when Pittsburgh is flying into New Jersey, they will  be much the best. 20-17 Steelers.


Dallas at Atlanta (-3.5)
Lots of believers out there in Big D. This line has dropped from (4.5) to where it is now because of all the Cowboys action. I just don't see it. And like Judge Patrick told me the other day and a point I'm starting to buy into, the Cowboys seem to be a team whose talent- as evaluated by most talking heads on radio, TV, and print-  has been completely over valued.

Tony Romo is in the 11th hour of his career, regardless of what Cowboy fan wants to tell you. And the guy clearly sees the forest through the trees. He's got $67 million in the bank, he's relatively healthy, and there is a golf course (or 1,000) calling his name. To put it to you in layman's terms, Dallas and JERR will be looking at QB talent very closely in next year's April draft. (Along with a new head coach)

Atlanta just keeps rolling along at 7-0 while carrying the stigma of a team who can't win a playoff game; hence a stupid low point spread here. Sure, the Falcons could've lost a couple or three of the games that they ended up winning, but they are what they are. And that equates to being the last undefeated team in the league through 8 weeks. That includes last week's dismantling of the supposedly unbeatable Philadelphia Eagles (on the road) following a bye week, and an absolute beat down of Vegas' second choice in the AFC (Denver), in a game in which Atlanta ran out to a 27-7 lead and then seemed to get bored as they let Denver inch back into the game.

Tony Romo will be running for his life as he always does behind one of the worst O-lines in the game, and the Falcons will improve to a perfect 8-0. The favorite in this head to head is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. 30-20 Falcons.


Barking Dogs YTD                    11-4 ATS (Ruff-Ruff)
Totals             YTD                     3-0 ATS
Last Week                                  2-1 ATS

OVERALL
YTD                                      19-11-1 ATS (63%)
Since 2010                            94-52-8 ATS (64%)


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