Saturday, December 29, 2012

Week 17: Time to Get Healthy

The Last 5 Weeks Have Brought Me to Tears
Bru-tal. 7-16-1 ATS over the last 5 weeks of prognosticating. I do apologize. I apologize to guys like "The Legend", who informed me thru a profanity filled email that he's had to turn in the Jaguar, sell the vacation home, and that "all the YP has moved on to bigger whales...." I apologize to my remote (s). I  apologize to my kid's college fund, which had to be raided to pay off the man. (Just kidding, I don't have any kids,  but I did rob the 19 year old kid who lives next door, who was home on Christmas break). But anyway....

I will continue to follow the trends and stats and information I've used for the last 3 years, that have propelled me to a winning percentage north of 60%. And I ask that you continue to have faith in my abilities, as we head into January and the NFL post season. Godspeed....

Houston at Indy (+7)
Most of football nation still isn't sold on the Texans. Include me in that group. Most of football nation also has Andrew Luck well behind RG3 and Russell Wilson in the rookie of the year discussion. Do not include me in that group.
4,100+ Yards & 21 Touchdowns; 3rd Best Rookie QB? Ok...

Issue One: The Texans are suspect. By my count, they have one impressive win over the last 10 weeks- the 43-13 thumping they gave Baltimore. And let's face it, the Ravens aren't the Ravens of old.  Also, I'm not counting the 13-6 win at Chicago as that impressive. Low scoring, bad weather, Chicago is really not that good- go ahead and pick a reason as to why that shouldn't count.

But never mind that, or the fact that they were down 14 points to lowly Jacksonville heading into the 4th quarter 5 weeks ago- this team has gotten absolutely boat raced twice in the last 3 weeks. Last week to Minnesota at home, and three weeks ago at New England.

Issue Two: I feel like I'm the only Redskins' fan who gives Andrew Luck any credit. "Blinders On" homer- who looks through his burgundy and gold glasses 24/7, sees nothing but Luck's high interception numbers. The fact that the Colts were a 2-14 team last year is completely dismissed. The fact that Andrew Luck and the Colts have absolutely no running game (22nd in the league, while Washington and Seattle both have rushers in the Top 5), to compliment the pass, is too overlooked by Griffin and Wilson lovers.

The Colts really have nothing to play for. Their playoff position cannot be affected by the outcome of this game. The Texans, on the other hand, can lock up the AFC's top Playoff spot and have home field throughout, if they prevail in this tilt. So why the Colts here?

The Texans are 0-10 all time SU in Indy. The Colts have also been pretty good at home this year; 6-1 SU and they've covered 5 straight at home. I'll take the home team catching 7, against a team that is definitely not peaking, on the week the home team gets their cancer battling coach back. 23-17 Texans.

Green Bay (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Packers have covered 6 of their last 7, and I haven't been on them once in those 6 wins. Sucks to be me. In fact, I've played against or stayed away from them most of the year. So here is the spot I'm jumping on, against a one dimensional team, who they have absolutely owned over the last few years.

Not to go Darren Rovell on you, but the Vikings haven't beat the Packers in like 1,153 days, or something like that. It was November 1st, 2009, the last time the Vikings beat Green Bay. And over the course of that time, the Pack has bested their divisional rival 5 times, usually doing so in beat down fashion. In fact, this game's (3.5) point spread would've been covered every single time by the Cheeseheads.

The Vikings couldn't take advantage of a 210 yard rushing day by Adrian Peterson the last time these two met, nor the fact that the Pack was penalized twice as much as the Vikings were. Two red zone turnovers by the not reliable Christian Ponder, and a chip shot FG miss, and the Packers prevailed in a game in which they didn't exactly bring their "A" game.

I think the Packers will key on AP, and as mentioned, I wouldn't trust Christian Ponder's arm to beat Stone Bridge. The Packers are surging at the right time, and this game is a must if they want a first round bye in the playoffs. No Eric Dickerson record,  no post season, no nothing. Check please, Viking fan. 27-19 Packers.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5)
When bringing up the point that Dallas has been playing a lot of "catch up" football as of late, someone mentioned that they love when fans of opposing teams (me) are overly critical of how teams are winning, and how every game comes down to a play or two. Fair enough on the play or two that can affect any given game, but to my first point...

Facts are this: the Cowboys haven't taken a lead into the 4th quarter since October 28th, in a game they ended up losing (to the New York football Giants). That's a pretty long time to go (two months) in which you're not really controlling the pace of play, so to speak. They had to march back twice in the 4th quarter against awful Philadelphia, and were dead to rights at home versus Cleveland (remember them? The team the Redskins beat the shit out of on the road a couple weeks back). Throw in a couple gift wrapped Ws versus Cincy and Pittsburgh, and I'm supposed to be impressed with Dallas' resume over the last month and a half?

The Redskins on the other hand, have been beating teams asses during their 6 game win streak, and really taking control of the game, well before the 4th quarter. With the exception of the come from behind win against Baltimore, the Redskins have sacked up and taken control of the games they're winning. (Including the Monday night win against the Giants, you skeptic, when the Redskins completely shut the Giants down in the second half).

The train, as my buddy The Legend calls it, is not stopping this week. And in a world in which karma prevails like the cold winds at Fed Ex will be Sunday night, the Redskins don't trot out guys on the sideline, who kill teammates while being drunk over twice the legal limit. Karma is a bitch, Cowboy fan, and good karma guys like RG3 and Alfred Morris and Santana Moss are the types of guys Redskin fan let hang out on their sideline.
"Put That Drunk Guy in The Game, Jason!"

I hate when my appetite doesn't meet what my eyes are telling me, but I really think this game could get out of hand. And by getting out of hand, I think the Redskins could win by 3 touchdowns. I'm not sure enough can be said for what the Redskins did to Dallas in Dallas, on Thanksgiving Day. Though the game got dicey at the end, and the Redskins ended up winning by 10, that first half was a joke.

The Redskins have covered 5 straight against Dallas, and 6 of the last 7. I do think Dallas has been living on the edge, and this is the week reality hits them  in the face; your team sucks, your owner is an egotistical, (and at times) brainless asshole, and RG3 is your worst nightmare. 36-21 Redskins. 

Last Week                            1-3-1 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-17 ATS
Totals YTD                           7-4-1 ATS

YTD                                  40-36-2 ATS (53%)
Since 2010                      115-77-9 ATS (60%)

Saturday, December 22, 2012

NFL Week 16: A Stocking Full of ATS Winners

The Lions are 9-15 since "the handshake"
Atlanta at Detroit (+4)
Way to go,  Lions. You just got your asses kicked by the lowly Arizona Cardinals. I'm trying to pin point the moment your team began to shit the bed, and it appears to me that it started when that dick Jim Harbaugh bitch slapped your head coach with "the handshake", week 6 of last year (9-15 since, Lion Nation).

Here are the factors I'm playing here: Atlanta to come down after their statement game in that beat down they just gave the G-Men, the Pussy Cats to come up, after that beat down they received in the desert, and of course getting a home dog (who up until last week, was scoring big points) catching 4. Chew on this: The Falcons are 0-7 ATS the week after allowing 15 points or fewer. Conversely, the Pussy Cats are 4-0 ATS the week after they score 15 or less points. Good  enough for me. 27-20 Lions.

Oakland at Carolina (-8.5)
Pump the brakes, Bevis. Cam Newton is about to lose his job to some little kid, for Christ's sake. How and the hell are Mr. Newton and his Carolina Pussy Cats laying almost double digits? Is Oakland that piss poor awful? Uhh....Yes, Butthead.

Besides, this Oakland team has done horribly in the "fly east, play the 1pm kick" spot. Other than an early season 3 point loss at Atlanta, the Rai-duzz have gotten absolutely pollaxed when playing in the big boy time zone. 35-13 losers to Miami, 55-20 losers to Baltimore, and 34-10 losers to Cincinnati.

The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall (the "1" being that "impressive" 15-0 field goal fest last week against the Chiefs), and they're 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win. Look for a very lackluster Rai-duzz team who has enjoyed 3 straight home games in that shit hole known as Oakland. Also, look for the Rai-duzz to attempt a halftime trade with Carolina; Carson Palmer for the kid whose just "loosening up my arm". 30-13 Panthers.

Cincy at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
I'm playing the percentages here. Big Ben is due. Following his return from injury, you have a very lackluster performance at home against an inferior Bolts team, and then last week's meltdown to what I feel is also an inferior team in the Dallas "Drunk Drivers Who Kill Are Welcomed" Cowboys. Not to mention the Bungholes recent history at Heinz Field- not good.

The Bungholes are 1-4 SU in Pittsburgh over the last 5 meetings between these two, and generally speaking, the Bungholes get absolutely slammed while visiting Western Pennsylvania. In those 4 losses at John Kerry's Wife's Stadium, they've lost 35-7, 23-7, 27-10, and 24-10. For all intents and purposes, those are beat downs. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a SU loss. Look out civil people, the Big Hairs will be in a drunken, stinky, stupor of a victory formation come Sunday afternoon. Gross. 26-14 Steelers.

Washington at Philly (+6.5)
My, how times have changed. The last time these two teams met in Philly, the Uggles were 7 point favorites, and they administered a 34-7 beat down to the burgundy and gold. Coincidentally, we had a similar score in the beat down the Redskins gave Philly a little over a month ago in DC, 31-6. But that game was also the debut of Nick "Napoleon Dynamite" Foles, who looked about as stiff as a dead coach's son with a backpack full of steroids. (Sorry for the insensitivity this week, but I'm coming off a post in which I laid low with the schtick, so I'm making up for lost opportunities. Carry on....)

Be leary, Redskin fan. There is nothing Fat Andy and those degenerate Uggles fans would rather do than fuck up your post season plans. Something tells me too, that a formerly concussed LeSean McCoy (who was dinged up in the closing minutes of the Uggles/Skins first game), is not suiting up on Sunday for shits and giggles. The Uggles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in December, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC East. This could come down to Mr. Perfect's (Kai Forbath's) leg. 23-20 Washington.

New York Giants at Baltimore OVER 47
Here is a game that features two teams coming off absolute beat downs. The G-Men, down in HotLanta. The Charm City Crowes at home,  last weekend at the hands of The Six Million Dollar Neck.

JF will be laughing all the way to the bank in 2013
Raven fan, remember back in the day- you know, the year 2000 (Conan fan)- when your defense resembled something other than the old, broken down piece of crap car that it is now? Those were the days, huh? Ray-Ray still (kind of) had blood on his hands, yet was just  beginning to discover God, and Trent Dilfer looked like Joe  Montana, compared to what Joe Flacco looks like now.

Fast forward to present day. Your defense sucks (26th), Joe Flacco- though average, is going to get paid like a Super Bowl winning journeyman QB, and that genius John Harbaugh fired your OC with three weeks to go in the season. Good times!

Good thing you're playing a team with an equally sucky defense (28th), whose offense in consecutive weeks scored 52 and then 0 (zero). The G-men will definitely not be egged two weeks in a row, and I also think the future millionaire- Joe Flacco, connects for a few 6 point passes. The OVER is 11-2 ATS in Baltimore's last 13 following a SU loss. 31-27 Giants.

Last Week                         2-2 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD        17-15 ATS
Totals YTD                        7-4 ATS

YTD                            39-33-1 ATS (54%)
Since 2010                114-74-8 ATS (61%)

Saturday, December 15, 2012

NFL Week 15

I'm in Cleveland this weekend visiting family for the holidays (and for the Redskins/Browns game), so I'm short on time and my ability to put together a long winded, schticky post about this weekend's games. And quite frankly, my 3 week losing streak (and this blog, in general) seem quite trivial in light of yesterday's events in Connecticut. 

Green Bay at Chicago (+3) UNDER 43
Its sack up time for the Bears. They've lost 2 in a row, 4 of their last 5, and their once apparent lock on the post season is no more. I've been preaching that I don't like what I've been seeing out of Green Bay lately. And I still don't. They spotted the hapless Lions a 14 point cushion before marching back and covering last weekend, a week after virtually playing the same game (and eventually doing the same thing) to Minnesota. Lets also not forget about that 38-10 mauling in the Meadowlands the week before that. The Bears are due. The Packers have won 5 straight against the Monsters of The Midway, and have covered 4 straight. Noteworthy: These two teams have played UNDER in 9 of their last 10 meetings. 22-19 Bears.

Indy at Houston (-9.5)
Not so fast, rookie. I know, the big fat point spread coupled with the upstart Colts and Andrew Luck seems attractive. And yes, the Texans just came off a road beat down they took to the Patriots (your soon to be AFC Champions, by the way). The Texans are still the second best team in the AFC. And to their credit, they are coming off a stretch of 3 straight roadies, and 4 out of their last 5 on the road. This is a game in which Andrew Luck's 3 interception hole won't be something he can then crawl out of. In this matchup, the Texans have won 2 straight in Houston by 10 points or more. Houston is also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with winning records. 31-13 Texans.

Denver at Baltimore (+3)
Speaking of seasons slipping away, Bears fan. Is that what's happening here in Baltimore? Let me get this right, John Harbaugh, your team is 9-4, still in control of your own destiny, and you fire your OC with 3 weeks to go? That doesn't reek of panic or ego or anything, but for whatever reason, I think its going to work. The Broncos have won 8 straight and are doing so in convincing fashion. They've won all 8 of those games by 7 points or more, and are winning during this same span (on average) by 12 points/per. I've flip flopped on this game since early in the week, and for whatever reason, I just think the Ravens get it done here. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 the week after allowing 30 points or more. 21-17 Ravens.

Last Week            0-5-1 ATS

YTD                37-30-2 ATS
Since 2010     112-71-9 ATS

Sunday, December 9, 2012

NFL Week 14: Nobody Picks ATS Winners Better Than Yack

Baltimore at Washington UNDER 47.5
Joe Flacco threw a 5 yard dump off pass that went for 30 yards two weeks ago in San Diego. Couple that miracle with the fact that three weeks ago this scary 9-3 Baltimore Ravens team struggled to beat (13-10) a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team and then in fact lost in their own building to a still Roethlisberger-less Steelers team this past weekend, and the Charm City Crowes could just as easily be on a three game skid.

The Redskins, arguably, are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now. Three straight wins following three straight losses, and it appears the Rat has found his cheese. Washington's struggles have come on the defensive side of the ball, specifically giving up the home run ball. Unfortunately for them, Flacco is second in the league in pass attempts of 15 yards or greater. Fortunately for them, he's next to DFL when it comes to  completing them.

For all the talk about how Baltimore is shit on the road, here are the numbers: They've won three straight on the road, and four of their last five as a visitor. I think Washington's injuries and some  key players playing hurt catches up with them. And quite frankly, Monday night's win against NYG was a bit of a luck box, IMO. Look for Flacco to connect on some of those balls he throws down field, and consider a Ravens parlay with the UNDER. The once point heavy Redskins have now played 5 of their last 6 games UNDER, and Baltimore has played 3 straight roadies UNDER. I'd  lean Baltimore, but I'm rooting Redskins, but ultimately don't like either side that much. May the (moving) clock be your friend. UNDER

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-8)
Western Pennsylvania Hotties
I considered playing the "Ben is back after three weeks, and will be shaky" angle, and taking the Chargers plus the points, but then I punched myself in the face and came to a realization. I'm not betting on a Norv Turner coached team, who is hopping on a bird to fly East and play the dreaded 1pm kick, a few days after hearing through the media that team owner Dean Spanos is jettisoning both the crater faced Norv and GMAJ. That's a recipe for 53 men to just say F**k It.

Don't look now, Raven fan, but the Steelers got that short bus rolling, and all their Big Haired, Big Assed, Big Truck driving, menthol cigarette smoking, Iron City drinking inbred fans are on it. Skoot-skoot...!!!

The Steelers' number 1 ranked defense will get some added help on the other side of the ball, as the number one ranked guy you don't want to see if you're a hotel TV repair woman is back at Quarterback. And don't sleep on what Pittsburgh was doing right before Big Ben went down. Four straight wins including roadies against the Bungholes and Giants (both + .500 teams), and an absolute dressing down at home of a now surging Washington team.

The favorite in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last 9, and the Bolts are a dreadful 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Pittsburgh. Bolts fans will be continuing to tell Norville and GMAJ to not let the door hit them in their collective asses on the way out. 29-17 Steelers.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina
I love how the betting public (and public in general) continues to disrespect the dirty birds. Say what you want about their inability to run the ball, their inability to win the big game, their defense is suspect. They're 11-1,  people! And Matty F**king Ice owns these pussy cats.

The Falcons have won 5 straight against their divisional foe, and have covered 4 of those 5 ATS. And in Matty Ice's last 4 versus Carolina he's 83-132, 1104 yards, 11 touchdowns to just 1 pickle. That's pretty good.

Show some respect to the team who will be hosting the NFC Title game this year. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road in their  last 6 versus a team with a losing record. And Carolina has failed to cover the number in 5 straight home games. Can you say boat  race? 33-16 Falcons.

NY  Jets at Jax (+3)
Are you  f**king kidding me, Vegas?  You're making the Jets a road favorite? Was I the only asshole who bet on these c**ksuckers last weekend, laying 6 at home to the hapless Cardinals, just to see Mark Sanchez throw up all over himself and then have some good sport prick RB take a knee prior to going in for the go ahead, back door cover?

The Jets suck. And this three ring circus is going down this weekend like Rex Ryan in a women's shoe store.

Jacksonville did get pollaxed on the road last week in Buffalo, but I'm going to give them some style points for what they did the prior two weeks. They beat a team at home whose at least on the talent level of the NY Jets, and possibly better (Tennessee) and should've pulled off the upset of the year the week prior, eventually blowing a 14 point 4th quarter lead to 11-1 Houston in Houston.

The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and are 1-6 ATS in their  last 7 versus the Jags. I like the Jags to right the ship after taking one on the bow in Buffalo. Jax is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 the week after giving up 30 points or more. 19-17 Jags

Detroit (+7) at Green Bay OVER 49.5
I know what I see, and what I see here is a Green Bay team who is struggling. I see a Green Bay team who probably not only should've not covered last week to the Vikings, they should've lost outright. They've given up 100+ yards or more on the ground in three straight weeks, including Adrian Peterson's 210 yard gash fest this past Sunday. They were beneficiaries of Christian Ponder's INT in the end zone, and a late fairly chip shot-like FG miss by Viking kicker Blair F**king Welsh! ( I had the Vikings +8)

"I hope you have your cup on, beeotch."
So by my count, that makes three straight weeks where the Packers were less than impressive.

On the other side of the ledger, the Lions are taking on water like the Titantic. Four straight losses and their playoff chances are all but dead. However, they're still scoring points like its going out of style. Get this: they've lost two straight games in which they've scored 30 points or more (dreadful, Mr. D Coordinator), scored 28 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games, and 20 points or more in 6 straight. 

Green Bay has to come out of their funk, and this is the week I'm betting on them doing so. The once offensive juggernaut Packers are scoring just 19 points/per over their last 3 contests, including a 24-20 win in Detroit three weeks ago. During that 3 game span, Mr. Rodgers has a less than impressive stat line that includes just 4 touchdowns and 3 picks. Don't be surprised if Aaron matches that 4 touchdown total just in this game, and also don't be surprised if Mr. Stafford keeps up with him. The Lions have played OVER in five of their last six. 36-31 Packers and OVER.

Last Week                               2-3  ATS
Thursday Night                        1-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-11  ATS
Totals YTD                             6-2   ATS

YTD                                   37-25-1  ATS (60%)
Since 2010                        112-66-8  ATS (63%)

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Thursday Night Football & BT Sports Radio

Daddy Love Me
Denver at Oakland (Under 48)
Excluding Thanksgiving Day, the NFL Thursday game experience has been on the equivalent of old people f**king; boring, slow, and low scoring (sorry, Dad). To be exact, of the 12 games played on Thursday night this year, the Under has hit 10 of the 12 times.

I don't like the side in this game either way. I  could see the Broncos boat racing the Rai-duzz like they did earlier in the season (37-6), and I could also see them getting lulled to sleep like they did two weeks ago in a divisional road game, against an inferior opponent (KC), trailing most of the game but eventually prevailing 17-9.

Irregardless of how the game goes relative to the side, you will  see a  struggling offense (Oakland) attempting to move the ball on a very tough and stingy defense (Denver- 3rd ranked in NFL). You will also see the Broncos in a short week in which they travel, not have as much life. I'm  not sure whether they cover the big number, but this game goes under. The Under is 4-1 in Denver's last 5 Thursday games, and the Under is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 versus the AFC West. Snoozefest. UNDER

BT Sports Radio

Check out Yack, Rich Turpin, and  Jabby Burns in their weekly Tuesday night love fest. Guests this week included Evan Silva of, Jeremy Conn of 105.7 The Fan in  Baltimore, and Junkies Super Producer Matt Valdez.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

NFL Week 13: December Football Equals Holiday Spending Money in Yackville!!

This guy is pretty good
Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay
The Packers last month has not been that impressive. They were completely annihilated by the New York football Giants, out gained and out "First Downed" by the hapless Detroit Lions, who gift wrapped (4 turnovers) a "W" to Green Bay the week before, and two ho-hum wins against the sucky Cardinals and Jaguars the two weeks before that.

The Vikings have shown life and can score points. They're putting up 23 points per game, and Superman Adrian Peterson is the league leader when it comes to gashing your opponent on the ground. Green Bay has yielded 100+ yards on the ground in their last two games, and I like the Vikings to keep this game from going "blowout", and still  being able to utilize Mr. Peterson's bionic knee. I'm throwing all trends out the window this week (as most of them lean toward the Pack), and riding AP like Joe Talamo rides 6 1/2 furlong winners at Hollywood Park. 31-26 Packers.

Seattle at Chicago (Under 37.5)
The Seahawks have played 6 games on the road this year, and have lost 5 of them. Not that they're getting housed in any of these games (they're losing on average, by 4.8 points per game), but they're not a good roadie nonetheless. And after making the NFL's longest roadie (Seattle to Miami and back: 3,300 miles each way), they get to travel about halfway across the fruited plain, and visit the new monsters of the midway. And they will be tired.

The Bears on the other hand, have been great when they haven't had to play a team whose defense was worth a shit. Blowouts against teams like Tennessee, Indy, and Minnesota, but put them up against a top 5 defense (Seattle, currently ranked 5th) like Houston or San Francisco, and its a completely different story (low scoring losses). The Under is 4-1 in Chicago's last 5 home games, and Seattle has played Under in 6 of their last 8 versus the NFC. Just pray Chicago doesn't score any garbage points, and this will be a big fat winner. 20-10 UNDER.

Arizona at NY Jets (-6)
We all knew Rex Ryan was into feet, but we never knew Mark Sanchez was into butts. Specifically the butt of his O-lineman Brandon Moore. God, that was funny. Anyway, the Jets are the butt of the sports media these days, for more reasons than Sanchez' Thanksgiving Day imitation of Rock Hudson in the Studio 54 circa 1977. You can start with their 4-7 record and continue with the Jets being so pathetic, that even Fireman Bill or whatever the f**k his name is, was forced to resign his cheer leading duties.

Heh-Heh...Heh-Heh...I said duties.....

Off the field, Sanchez is into women's butts
Speaking of shit, Arizona has been taking one. A big fat one, in fact. To the tune of 7 straight losses. Last week was a 4 turnover performance at home against average St. Louis, and the week before- when the team with the best record in football (Atlanta) turns the ball over 6 friggin times, dude, you need to win that game!

The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS loss. Arizona is 2-0 ATS this year making the West to East trip to play at 1pm, but I'll still take the team on 11 days rest, and play the due factor against Zona not covering this one. 29-16 Jets.

Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Baltimore
Yes, I know that Baltimore is 6-0 in games against Pittsburgh when choir boy Ben is not involved in the contest. And I do know that Baltimore took care of business two weeks ago in Pittsburgh against these Ben-less Steelers. And that last week Pittsburgh turned the ball over 8 times on their way to losing to the hard luck Brownies.

Mike Tomlin is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL. I'm expecting that practice in Pittsburgh this week wasn't a walk in the park, and Roethlisberger or not, I'm betting on the Steelers posting and showing some pride in this divisional slug fest.

I'm going to avoid all trends on Pittsburgh side, as they were all built having had BR in the equation. However, on Baltimore's side of the equation they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Tomlin and the Steelers show up to do battle. 21-20 Ravens.

Philadelphia (+10.5) at Dallas
Nothing pains me more than to watch two NFC East teams other than the Redskins playing, and me having to root for one of the c**ksuckers because I've gotten down on one or the other. Case in point, Sunday night.

Andy Reid is on his way out of Philly. And we're well into the phase of the Eagles season where they have packed it in. However, I'm not so overwhelmingly impressed with the Cowboys, that I'd be willing to lay over double digits here. And I do see some value in taking Philly at this number.

Builders in San Diego are widening doorways as we speak
For starters, this will be the 3rd game that Nick Foles has started for Philly, and I think he's only got to get better, and his timing and play with his receiving corp should be improved. I also like what I saw from Philly's backup to LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown. This kid had 189 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in the loss to Carolina. Give me two young guys at key positions, who most likely are trying to make their mark, and I'll take the double digit points here.

Lack luster Dallas has give up 20 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games, and is yielding 25 points/per over that same span. More importantly, in that monstrosity that Stretch Face Jerry Jones built, the Cowboys have failed to cover 8 straight! And Redskins fans thought Fed Ex Field was a home team's worst nightmare... 31-27 Cowboys.

Last Week                                     1-3 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD                    15-10 ATS
Totals  YTD                                    5-1 ATS

YTD                                        34-22-1 ATS (61%)
Since 2010                            109-63-8 ATS (63%)

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

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