Saturday, December 1, 2012

NFL Week 13: December Football Equals Holiday Spending Money in Yackville!!

This guy is pretty good
Minnesota (+8) at Green Bay
The Packers last month has not been that impressive. They were completely annihilated by the New York football Giants, out gained and out "First Downed" by the hapless Detroit Lions, who gift wrapped (4 turnovers) a "W" to Green Bay the week before, and two ho-hum wins against the sucky Cardinals and Jaguars the two weeks before that.

The Vikings have shown life and can score points. They're putting up 23 points per game, and Superman Adrian Peterson is the league leader when it comes to gashing your opponent on the ground. Green Bay has yielded 100+ yards on the ground in their last two games, and I like the Vikings to keep this game from going "blowout", and still  being able to utilize Mr. Peterson's bionic knee. I'm throwing all trends out the window this week (as most of them lean toward the Pack), and riding AP like Joe Talamo rides 6 1/2 furlong winners at Hollywood Park. 31-26 Packers.

Seattle at Chicago (Under 37.5)
The Seahawks have played 6 games on the road this year, and have lost 5 of them. Not that they're getting housed in any of these games (they're losing on average, by 4.8 points per game), but they're not a good roadie nonetheless. And after making the NFL's longest roadie (Seattle to Miami and back: 3,300 miles each way), they get to travel about halfway across the fruited plain, and visit the new monsters of the midway. And they will be tired.

The Bears on the other hand, have been great when they haven't had to play a team whose defense was worth a shit. Blowouts against teams like Tennessee, Indy, and Minnesota, but put them up against a top 5 defense (Seattle, currently ranked 5th) like Houston or San Francisco, and its a completely different story (low scoring losses). The Under is 4-1 in Chicago's last 5 home games, and Seattle has played Under in 6 of their last 8 versus the NFC. Just pray Chicago doesn't score any garbage points, and this will be a big fat winner. 20-10 UNDER.

Arizona at NY Jets (-6)
We all knew Rex Ryan was into feet, but we never knew Mark Sanchez was into butts. Specifically the butt of his O-lineman Brandon Moore. God, that was funny. Anyway, the Jets are the butt of the sports media these days, for more reasons than Sanchez' Thanksgiving Day imitation of Rock Hudson in the Studio 54 circa 1977. You can start with their 4-7 record and continue with the Jets being so pathetic, that even Fireman Bill or whatever the f**k his name is, was forced to resign his cheer leading duties.

Heh-Heh...Heh-Heh...I said duties.....

Off the field, Sanchez is into women's butts
Speaking of shit, Arizona has been taking one. A big fat one, in fact. To the tune of 7 straight losses. Last week was a 4 turnover performance at home against average St. Louis, and the week before- when the team with the best record in football (Atlanta) turns the ball over 6 friggin times, dude, you need to win that game!

The Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS loss. Arizona is 2-0 ATS this year making the West to East trip to play at 1pm, but I'll still take the team on 11 days rest, and play the due factor against Zona not covering this one. 29-16 Jets.

Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Baltimore
Yes, I know that Baltimore is 6-0 in games against Pittsburgh when choir boy Ben is not involved in the contest. And I do know that Baltimore took care of business two weeks ago in Pittsburgh against these Ben-less Steelers. And that last week Pittsburgh turned the ball over 8 times on their way to losing to the hard luck Brownies.

Mike Tomlin is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL. I'm expecting that practice in Pittsburgh this week wasn't a walk in the park, and Roethlisberger or not, I'm betting on the Steelers posting and showing some pride in this divisional slug fest.

I'm going to avoid all trends on Pittsburgh side, as they were all built having had BR in the equation. However, on Baltimore's side of the equation they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Tomlin and the Steelers show up to do battle. 21-20 Ravens.

Philadelphia (+10.5) at Dallas
Nothing pains me more than to watch two NFC East teams other than the Redskins playing, and me having to root for one of the c**ksuckers because I've gotten down on one or the other. Case in point, Sunday night.

Andy Reid is on his way out of Philly. And we're well into the phase of the Eagles season where they have packed it in. However, I'm not so overwhelmingly impressed with the Cowboys, that I'd be willing to lay over double digits here. And I do see some value in taking Philly at this number.

Builders in San Diego are widening doorways as we speak
For starters, this will be the 3rd game that Nick Foles has started for Philly, and I think he's only got to get better, and his timing and play with his receiving corp should be improved. I also like what I saw from Philly's backup to LeSean McCoy, Bryce Brown. This kid had 189 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in the loss to Carolina. Give me two young guys at key positions, who most likely are trying to make their mark, and I'll take the double digit points here.

Lack luster Dallas has give up 20 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games, and is yielding 25 points/per over that same span. More importantly, in that monstrosity that Stretch Face Jerry Jones built, the Cowboys have failed to cover 8 straight! And Redskins fans thought Fed Ex Field was a home team's worst nightmare... 31-27 Cowboys.

Last Week                                     1-3 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD                    15-10 ATS
Totals  YTD                                    5-1 ATS

YTD                                        34-22-1 ATS (61%)
Since 2010                            109-63-8 ATS (63%)

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