Sunday, December 9, 2012

NFL Week 14: Nobody Picks ATS Winners Better Than Yack

Baltimore at Washington UNDER 47.5
Joe Flacco threw a 5 yard dump off pass that went for 30 yards two weeks ago in San Diego. Couple that miracle with the fact that three weeks ago this scary 9-3 Baltimore Ravens team struggled to beat (13-10) a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team and then in fact lost in their own building to a still Roethlisberger-less Steelers team this past weekend, and the Charm City Crowes could just as easily be on a three game skid.

The Redskins, arguably, are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now. Three straight wins following three straight losses, and it appears the Rat has found his cheese. Washington's struggles have come on the defensive side of the ball, specifically giving up the home run ball. Unfortunately for them, Flacco is second in the league in pass attempts of 15 yards or greater. Fortunately for them, he's next to DFL when it comes to  completing them.

For all the talk about how Baltimore is shit on the road, here are the numbers: They've won three straight on the road, and four of their last five as a visitor. I think Washington's injuries and some  key players playing hurt catches up with them. And quite frankly, Monday night's win against NYG was a bit of a luck box, IMO. Look for Flacco to connect on some of those balls he throws down field, and consider a Ravens parlay with the UNDER. The once point heavy Redskins have now played 5 of their last 6 games UNDER, and Baltimore has played 3 straight roadies UNDER. I'd  lean Baltimore, but I'm rooting Redskins, but ultimately don't like either side that much. May the (moving) clock be your friend. UNDER

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-8)
Western Pennsylvania Hotties
I considered playing the "Ben is back after three weeks, and will be shaky" angle, and taking the Chargers plus the points, but then I punched myself in the face and came to a realization. I'm not betting on a Norv Turner coached team, who is hopping on a bird to fly East and play the dreaded 1pm kick, a few days after hearing through the media that team owner Dean Spanos is jettisoning both the crater faced Norv and GMAJ. That's a recipe for 53 men to just say F**k It.

Don't look now, Raven fan, but the Steelers got that short bus rolling, and all their Big Haired, Big Assed, Big Truck driving, menthol cigarette smoking, Iron City drinking inbred fans are on it. Skoot-skoot...!!!

The Steelers' number 1 ranked defense will get some added help on the other side of the ball, as the number one ranked guy you don't want to see if you're a hotel TV repair woman is back at Quarterback. And don't sleep on what Pittsburgh was doing right before Big Ben went down. Four straight wins including roadies against the Bungholes and Giants (both + .500 teams), and an absolute dressing down at home of a now surging Washington team.

The favorite in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last 9, and the Bolts are a dreadful 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at Pittsburgh. Bolts fans will be continuing to tell Norville and GMAJ to not let the door hit them in their collective asses on the way out. 29-17 Steelers.

Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina
I love how the betting public (and public in general) continues to disrespect the dirty birds. Say what you want about their inability to run the ball, their inability to win the big game, their defense is suspect. They're 11-1,  people! And Matty F**king Ice owns these pussy cats.

The Falcons have won 5 straight against their divisional foe, and have covered 4 of those 5 ATS. And in Matty Ice's last 4 versus Carolina he's 83-132, 1104 yards, 11 touchdowns to just 1 pickle. That's pretty good.

Show some respect to the team who will be hosting the NFC Title game this year. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS on the road in their  last 6 versus a team with a losing record. And Carolina has failed to cover the number in 5 straight home games. Can you say boat  race? 33-16 Falcons.

NY  Jets at Jax (+3)
Are you  f**king kidding me, Vegas?  You're making the Jets a road favorite? Was I the only asshole who bet on these c**ksuckers last weekend, laying 6 at home to the hapless Cardinals, just to see Mark Sanchez throw up all over himself and then have some good sport prick RB take a knee prior to going in for the go ahead, back door cover?

The Jets suck. And this three ring circus is going down this weekend like Rex Ryan in a women's shoe store.

Jacksonville did get pollaxed on the road last week in Buffalo, but I'm going to give them some style points for what they did the prior two weeks. They beat a team at home whose at least on the talent level of the NY Jets, and possibly better (Tennessee) and should've pulled off the upset of the year the week prior, eventually blowing a 14 point 4th quarter lead to 11-1 Houston in Houston.

The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and are 1-6 ATS in their  last 7 versus the Jags. I like the Jags to right the ship after taking one on the bow in Buffalo. Jax is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 the week after giving up 30 points or more. 19-17 Jags

Detroit (+7) at Green Bay OVER 49.5
I know what I see, and what I see here is a Green Bay team who is struggling. I see a Green Bay team who probably not only should've not covered last week to the Vikings, they should've lost outright. They've given up 100+ yards or more on the ground in three straight weeks, including Adrian Peterson's 210 yard gash fest this past Sunday. They were beneficiaries of Christian Ponder's INT in the end zone, and a late fairly chip shot-like FG miss by Viking kicker Blair F**king Welsh! ( I had the Vikings +8)

"I hope you have your cup on, beeotch."
So by my count, that makes three straight weeks where the Packers were less than impressive.

On the other side of the ledger, the Lions are taking on water like the Titantic. Four straight losses and their playoff chances are all but dead. However, they're still scoring points like its going out of style. Get this: they've lost two straight games in which they've scored 30 points or more (dreadful, Mr. D Coordinator), scored 28 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games, and 20 points or more in 6 straight. 

Green Bay has to come out of their funk, and this is the week I'm betting on them doing so. The once offensive juggernaut Packers are scoring just 19 points/per over their last 3 contests, including a 24-20 win in Detroit three weeks ago. During that 3 game span, Mr. Rodgers has a less than impressive stat line that includes just 4 touchdowns and 3 picks. Don't be surprised if Aaron matches that 4 touchdown total just in this game, and also don't be surprised if Mr. Stafford keeps up with him. The Lions have played OVER in five of their last six. 36-31 Packers and OVER.

Last Week                               2-3  ATS
Thursday Night                        1-0  ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-11  ATS
Totals YTD                             6-2   ATS

YTD                                   37-25-1  ATS (60%)
Since 2010                        112-66-8  ATS (63%)

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