Saturday, December 15, 2012

NFL Week 15

I'm in Cleveland this weekend visiting family for the holidays (and for the Redskins/Browns game), so I'm short on time and my ability to put together a long winded, schticky post about this weekend's games. And quite frankly, my 3 week losing streak (and this blog, in general) seem quite trivial in light of yesterday's events in Connecticut. 

Green Bay at Chicago (+3) UNDER 43
Its sack up time for the Bears. They've lost 2 in a row, 4 of their last 5, and their once apparent lock on the post season is no more. I've been preaching that I don't like what I've been seeing out of Green Bay lately. And I still don't. They spotted the hapless Lions a 14 point cushion before marching back and covering last weekend, a week after virtually playing the same game (and eventually doing the same thing) to Minnesota. Lets also not forget about that 38-10 mauling in the Meadowlands the week before that. The Bears are due. The Packers have won 5 straight against the Monsters of The Midway, and have covered 4 straight. Noteworthy: These two teams have played UNDER in 9 of their last 10 meetings. 22-19 Bears.

Indy at Houston (-9.5)
Not so fast, rookie. I know, the big fat point spread coupled with the upstart Colts and Andrew Luck seems attractive. And yes, the Texans just came off a road beat down they took to the Patriots (your soon to be AFC Champions, by the way). The Texans are still the second best team in the AFC. And to their credit, they are coming off a stretch of 3 straight roadies, and 4 out of their last 5 on the road. This is a game in which Andrew Luck's 3 interception hole won't be something he can then crawl out of. In this matchup, the Texans have won 2 straight in Houston by 10 points or more. Houston is also an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 versus teams with winning records. 31-13 Texans.

Denver at Baltimore (+3)
Speaking of seasons slipping away, Bears fan. Is that what's happening here in Baltimore? Let me get this right, John Harbaugh, your team is 9-4, still in control of your own destiny, and you fire your OC with 3 weeks to go? That doesn't reek of panic or ego or anything, but for whatever reason, I think its going to work. The Broncos have won 8 straight and are doing so in convincing fashion. They've won all 8 of those games by 7 points or more, and are winning during this same span (on average) by 12 points/per. I've flip flopped on this game since early in the week, and for whatever reason, I just think the Ravens get it done here. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 the week after allowing 30 points or more. 21-17 Ravens.

Last Week            0-5-1 ATS

YTD                37-30-2 ATS
Since 2010     112-71-9 ATS

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