Saturday, December 29, 2012

Week 17: Time to Get Healthy

The Last 5 Weeks Have Brought Me to Tears
Bru-tal. 7-16-1 ATS over the last 5 weeks of prognosticating. I do apologize. I apologize to guys like "The Legend", who informed me thru a profanity filled email that he's had to turn in the Jaguar, sell the vacation home, and that "all the YP has moved on to bigger whales...." I apologize to my remote (s). I  apologize to my kid's college fund, which had to be raided to pay off the man. (Just kidding, I don't have any kids,  but I did rob the 19 year old kid who lives next door, who was home on Christmas break). But anyway....

I will continue to follow the trends and stats and information I've used for the last 3 years, that have propelled me to a winning percentage north of 60%. And I ask that you continue to have faith in my abilities, as we head into January and the NFL post season. Godspeed....


Houston at Indy (+7)
Most of football nation still isn't sold on the Texans. Include me in that group. Most of football nation also has Andrew Luck well behind RG3 and Russell Wilson in the rookie of the year discussion. Do not include me in that group.
4,100+ Yards & 21 Touchdowns; 3rd Best Rookie QB? Ok...

Issue One: The Texans are suspect. By my count, they have one impressive win over the last 10 weeks- the 43-13 thumping they gave Baltimore. And let's face it, the Ravens aren't the Ravens of old.  Also, I'm not counting the 13-6 win at Chicago as that impressive. Low scoring, bad weather, Chicago is really not that good- go ahead and pick a reason as to why that shouldn't count.

But never mind that, or the fact that they were down 14 points to lowly Jacksonville heading into the 4th quarter 5 weeks ago- this team has gotten absolutely boat raced twice in the last 3 weeks. Last week to Minnesota at home, and three weeks ago at New England.

Issue Two: I feel like I'm the only Redskins' fan who gives Andrew Luck any credit. "Blinders On" homer- who looks through his burgundy and gold glasses 24/7, sees nothing but Luck's high interception numbers. The fact that the Colts were a 2-14 team last year is completely dismissed. The fact that Andrew Luck and the Colts have absolutely no running game (22nd in the league, while Washington and Seattle both have rushers in the Top 5), to compliment the pass, is too overlooked by Griffin and Wilson lovers.

The Colts really have nothing to play for. Their playoff position cannot be affected by the outcome of this game. The Texans, on the other hand, can lock up the AFC's top Playoff spot and have home field throughout, if they prevail in this tilt. So why the Colts here?

The Texans are 0-10 all time SU in Indy. The Colts have also been pretty good at home this year; 6-1 SU and they've covered 5 straight at home. I'll take the home team catching 7, against a team that is definitely not peaking, on the week the home team gets their cancer battling coach back. 23-17 Texans.



Green Bay (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Packers have covered 6 of their last 7, and I haven't been on them once in those 6 wins. Sucks to be me. In fact, I've played against or stayed away from them most of the year. So here is the spot I'm jumping on, against a one dimensional team, who they have absolutely owned over the last few years.

Not to go Darren Rovell on you, but the Vikings haven't beat the Packers in like 1,153 days, or something like that. It was November 1st, 2009, the last time the Vikings beat Green Bay. And over the course of that time, the Pack has bested their divisional rival 5 times, usually doing so in beat down fashion. In fact, this game's (3.5) point spread would've been covered every single time by the Cheeseheads.

The Vikings couldn't take advantage of a 210 yard rushing day by Adrian Peterson the last time these two met, nor the fact that the Pack was penalized twice as much as the Vikings were. Two red zone turnovers by the not reliable Christian Ponder, and a chip shot FG miss, and the Packers prevailed in a game in which they didn't exactly bring their "A" game.

I think the Packers will key on AP, and as mentioned, I wouldn't trust Christian Ponder's arm to beat Stone Bridge. The Packers are surging at the right time, and this game is a must if they want a first round bye in the playoffs. No Eric Dickerson record,  no post season, no nothing. Check please, Viking fan. 27-19 Packers.



Dallas at Washington (-3.5)
When bringing up the point that Dallas has been playing a lot of "catch up" football as of late, someone mentioned that they love when fans of opposing teams (me) are overly critical of how teams are winning, and how every game comes down to a play or two. Fair enough on the play or two that can affect any given game, but to my first point...

Facts are this: the Cowboys haven't taken a lead into the 4th quarter since October 28th, in a game they ended up losing (to the New York football Giants). That's a pretty long time to go (two months) in which you're not really controlling the pace of play, so to speak. They had to march back twice in the 4th quarter against awful Philadelphia, and were dead to rights at home versus Cleveland (remember them? The team the Redskins beat the shit out of on the road a couple weeks back). Throw in a couple gift wrapped Ws versus Cincy and Pittsburgh, and I'm supposed to be impressed with Dallas' resume over the last month and a half?

The Redskins on the other hand, have been beating teams asses during their 6 game win streak, and really taking control of the game, well before the 4th quarter. With the exception of the come from behind win against Baltimore, the Redskins have sacked up and taken control of the games they're winning. (Including the Monday night win against the Giants, you skeptic, when the Redskins completely shut the Giants down in the second half).

The train, as my buddy The Legend calls it, is not stopping this week. And in a world in which karma prevails like the cold winds at Fed Ex will be Sunday night, the Redskins don't trot out guys on the sideline, who kill teammates while being drunk over twice the legal limit. Karma is a bitch, Cowboy fan, and good karma guys like RG3 and Alfred Morris and Santana Moss are the types of guys Redskin fan let hang out on their sideline.
"Put That Drunk Guy in The Game, Jason!"

I hate when my appetite doesn't meet what my eyes are telling me, but I really think this game could get out of hand. And by getting out of hand, I think the Redskins could win by 3 touchdowns. I'm not sure enough can be said for what the Redskins did to Dallas in Dallas, on Thanksgiving Day. Though the game got dicey at the end, and the Redskins ended up winning by 10, that first half was a joke.

The Redskins have covered 5 straight against Dallas, and 6 of the last 7. I do think Dallas has been living on the edge, and this is the week reality hits them  in the face; your team sucks, your owner is an egotistical, (and at times) brainless asshole, and RG3 is your worst nightmare. 36-21 Redskins. 


Last Week                            1-3-1 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD              17-17 ATS
Totals YTD                           7-4-1 ATS


OVERALL
YTD                                  40-36-2 ATS (53%)
Since 2010                      115-77-9 ATS (60%)

















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