Tuesday, January 1, 2013

A Head Scratching Point Spread and Seattle's Inability To Stop Teams Who Can Run It

Vegas and The Betting Public Don't Like These Two
Vegas and the betting public are all over the Seahawks this week. Surprisingly to yours truly, the Seahawks not only opened up as a road favorite (-2.5), but by Tuesday morning, most of the books on the Vegas Strip had the Pete Carroll Crowes as a (-3) point favorite. (Not to mention, the S'Hawks are 6/1 to win the Super Bowl...really??)

Why all the love for Seattle?

Well, obviously rookie of the year candidate Russell Wilson (3rd on my voting sheet) is one reason. But Seattle's 4th ranked defense has got to be another. And over the last 5 weeks of the regular season, Seattle's D gave up just 12 points per game.

Yikes, Redskin fan...

However, if you take a look at things a wee bit closer, you'll notice that the Seahawks had some issues containing the run, whenever they played a team who can run the football. In fact, the Seahawks played in six games this year in which they faced a Top 10 rushing team or better. And although they did win five of those six games, they were absolutely gashed on the ground by their opponent:

The Vikings, (#2 ranked rushing team in the league): Rushed for 243 yards vs. Seattle.

The 49ers (#4): In two games played, the 49ers rushed for a total of 257 yards. (128.5/per)

The Bills (#6): Rushed for 118 yards.

New England (#7): Rushed for 87 yards.

Chicago (#10): Rushed for 132 yards.

Throw in the 17th ranked Miami Dolphins, who rushed for 189 yards against Seattle in Miami's Week 12 win in South Florida, and that works out to 147 yards/per game that Seattle gave up on the ground in those 7 contests. The Seahawks defense in the other 9 games they played this year, against teams who weren't statistically great when it came to running the ball, yielded just 69 yards/per.

I realize I have a betting bias here (which is an awful thing to have, my fellow degens), but I'd take my chances on the home dog whose getting 3, who also happens to have the #1 rushing offense in the NFL, against a team who is sneaky bad defensively, whenever they face an opponent who can pound the rock.

Not to mention...

Including the Seahawks, west coast teams who played in the Eastern Standard Time Zone this year were 7-11 straight up. (SF,ARZ,SD, and OAK). The Seahawks were 2-2 SU in the EST in 2012, and since 2007, they are 3-14 SU when playing in the EST. Their last win in the big boy time zone prior to this year, was on December 2, 2007, against the Philadelphia Eagles (28-24).

**Golf Notes**
The 2013 PGA Tour Season starts in three days (Friday, not Thursday). This clip includes one of my all time favorite quotes from a sports commentator, prior to him being proven wrong. Lanny Wadkins: "There is a good chance he doesn't get this inside DiMarco's ball." Ok, Lanny. Get me Sir Nick on the phone. You're out....

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