Friday, January 11, 2013

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend (Saturday)

Delivering Papa John's Pizza & 'W's to The Ravens. #9straight
Baltimore at Denver(-10)
This might end up being my favorite game of the entire playoffs relative to betting. So I  hope I don't swing and miss here, like I did last Sunday (Oh-fer....Christ's sake!). I'm not sure where to begin here, so lets just start with the last time these two  teams met.

12/16/2012, just under 4 weeks ago, Denver rolled into Baltimore on the back end of back-to-back roadies, and took care of business. Now Peyton Manning didn't have a sports highlight type day, but collectively, the Broncos absolutely boat raced the Charm City Crowes. You need to look no further than the 1st down (21-12) and time of possession (39min-21min) stats. Not to mention the Broncos keeping Ray Rice to just 38 yards rushing.

The other factors I'm leaning on besides actual numbers here, are the fact that Denver will not be on the back end of back-to-back roadies in this one. In fact, they'll be on two weeks rest. I also think the lingering effect of having fired your Offensive Coordinator with 3 weeks to go in the regular season, will rear its ugly head for Team Purple. Lastly, the old eye test told me that last week's 24-9 win against Indy wasn't that impressive. The Ravens seemed to do everything they could to keep Indy hanging around. That game didn't get out of hand until midway into the 4th quarter, and quite frankly, if Indy didn't have as many drops as they did, that game would've been a nail biter down the stretch.

Peyton Manning has won 9 straight versus Baltimore, and I don't expect that streak to end this week. Denver has also covered 4 straight. The Ravens lost 4 out of 5 games heading into the playoffs, and didn't do much to convince me last week that they're going to be a "tough out". Couple that with going on the road to face the league's suffocating number 2 defense, and you have a recipe for disaster, Baltimore fan. 33-13 Broncos.

Green Bay at San Francisco (-2.5)
That sound you just heard, was the quarter I just flipped that then hit the ground, as I'm trying to decide which team to go with here. Quite honestly, I can make case for both, yet I don't really love either one of these teams. I know Aaron Rodgers is the man, but I also think Green Bay's defense has been suspect all year. And as dumb of a statement as this might sound, GB was VERY fortunate that Christian Ponder was a late scratch last week. I realize he's far from the second coming of Fran Tarkenton, or  Sean Salisbury (our boy) for that matter, but that type of disruption to a team's offense, that late in the game planning, absolutely affected the Vikings last week.
 You Don't Want to Shake Hands with Me, Mother F**ker

My final answer (the 49ers) is based on the absolute pollaxing Frisco gave the New England Patriots on national TV about a month ago. That team flew across country, was more than prepared to play, and delivered an absolute knock out punch, even though the Pat(sys) did march back in an attempt to make it a game. Bottom line, everyone's favorite Uggs salesman and his boys got thumped. And they're a pretty good team....

As much as I think Jim Harbaugh is probably a dick, and a guy I wouldn't want to ride around in a golf cart with during a charity golf tournament, I think the guy can coach. Case in point, the "big game" I referenced in New England. And I wouldn't expect anything less for this "big game", with an extra week to prepare, and at home no less. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Frisco. Nevermind that stat, Mr. Cobain, because I'm playing the due factor. The 49ers will have a date in Hotlanta next weekend. 27-23 49ers.

Last Week                         2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs YTD        18-19 ATS
Totals YTD                    8-5-1 ATS

YTD                            44-40-2 ATS
Since 2010                 119-81-9 ATS

Relative to Nirvana songs, A total sleeper,  IMO.  Nirvana's "Radio Friendly Unit Shifter"

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