Sunday, January 6, 2013

NFL Playoff Sunday: Throwing The Book at The Bookie

Well, that was fun. A 2-0 NFL ATS Saturday, and thanks to my good "friends" Jabby and Matt,  another 5-0 ATS against the man playing college hoops. Yesterday actually felt like stealing. But we have no time to count all our cash with two more NFL games on the horizon. So without further adieu, let's continue this bookie beat down....

Indy(+7) at Baltimore OVER 47
Enjoy The Next 10+ Years, Texans, Titans, & Jags Fans
To be honest, I haven't liked this game one way or another (great Blondie song, by the way) all week. I actually predicted this line right on the number last Sunday, before the suits in Vegas even posted it. And quite like my surprise with regard to lines in the next game we'll talk about, this game has bumped up to the touchdown and extra point. I guess you can credit that to all the simpleton degens who opted to throw in an extra few bucks at the betting window, the minute they heard that Ray-Ray was hanging up his knife, or his cleats- whatever he uses to do battle. (Just don't ask him to hang up his suit. He's misplaced it or something)

Here's what this game comes down to with me: the overlay line. Like I said, I had this game at (-6) when I learned of the match up last weekend, and I think there is value (be it just a point) in the line covering you all the way up to the full TD. Great article on this week about how Vegas got hammered this year by the favorites- specifically Denver, New England, and Green Bay. And with both favorites covering on Saturday, I've got to think that Vegas is going to have this number inflated as much as they can, without compromising their juice.

Enough of the point spread conspiracy talk from yours truly.

Bottom line, the Ravens enter the post season not hitting on all cylinders. As I detailed this week in my post regarding how all 12 playoff teams have done since the Redskins win streak started (I'm not linking it. If you haven't read it, go back and read it after you read these words of wisdom first), the Ravens limped into the playoffs. They lost 4 of their last 7 coming in, and of the 12 teams entering the playoffs over the last 7 weeks of the regular season, Baltimore's offense  had the lowest points per game total of all 12 teams. Not to mention that BRILLIANT move by John Har-errrrrrrr, ownership, of firing Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron with 3 weeks to go, with a record of 9-4, coming off a game in which their offense scored a not so shabby 28 points.


The Colts enter the playoffs having won two straight, five of their  last seven, and are coming off a nice beat down administered to their division foe Texans, in a game Houston needed to maintain the bye week.  Also noteworthy, Andrew Luck and his mumble mouthed speech patterns, hasn't thrown an interception in  4 weeks. Expect the LUCKy one to pick a part a very porous Baltimore secondary, and keep his team hanging around. Both of these teams defenses are suspect, and with the good weather expected in Baltimore today, I'd expect a shootout of sorts.

The Colts have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, and have covered 8 straight when playing in Baltimore. I'll ride my Colt into town drawing off the inspiration of a coach whose battling cancer, before I draw my inspiration from a Come to Jesus who lied to cops and threw away his blood spattered suit. 31-26 Colts, Ruff-Ruff, and hammer the OVER.

Seattle at Washington (Money Line, +130)
RG3, Jack White, & Ryan Gosling from "Drive" #CoolGuys
As mentioned in the pablum above, this too is a game where I think the line is off. A buddy of mine pointed out to me that this simply explains the reason for which you prognosticate and pick games, because you disagree with the line. Not necessarily. I do feel Vegas gets the lines right 90% of the time, and then its the job of degenerates like myself and you the reader, to dissect the information, trends, and stats available, and then pick one side or the other.

And I do think Vegas and of course, the betting public, have swung and missed on this one. When the game was scheduled following last Sunday night's beat down by the Redskins of the Dallas Cowbitches, I had this Seattle/Skins game as a pick'em.

Both teams enter this contest on heaters. Washington having won 7 straight to get in, Seattle having won 5 straight, and 6 of their last 7. Both teams can run the ball extremely well. The  Redskins are doing it at a #1 rushing offense in the NFL pace, and the Seahawks are almost right behind them with the 3rd best attack. Seattle enters the game having allowed the fewest points in the entire NFL (15.3), while the Redskins-during this torrid 7 game stretch, are allowing just 20 (which relative to season stats, would have them with the 8th best defense in the league).

I truly think this overlay is a result of Vegas and the betting public putting entirely too much stock in "Robert Griffin III isn't 100%". Because to me, this game is about as even as it gets. And this game IS NOT going to come down to a field goal. This game is going to be won by the Redskins in almost a going away fashion, similarly to how they put the final nail in Dallas' coffin, with Alf's two 4th quarter touchdowns.

The Redskins are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at what used to be the unfriendly home confines of Fed Ex Field. They've also covered 5 straight against teams with winning records, as they didn't have the luxury of playing the lowly Bills and Cardinals down the stretch, Seahawk fan. (Yeah, you dickbags. Keep hanging your hats on those 50+ point performances against Stone Bridge's JV team)

Seattle is 3-14 SU since 2007 when playing in the Eastern Standard Timezone. I too think this is a stat that just kind of flew under the radar the entire week. Regardless of how much stock you put into that trend, its a record you can't ignore when considering this game. Leave the 3 points  in your man's juice box, and  bet the Redskins on the money line to win out right. 27-17 Redskins, hello Hotlanta.

Now watch this video. It has cool colors and hot chicks and the coolest mother f**ker on the planet,  next to RG3 of course. Good luck with your wagers.

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