Saturday, September 28, 2013

NFL Week 4: Climbing Out of A Hole is Not Fucking Fun, Fuckers

Ravens Party Bus: "Which One Of Yo Big Ass
Bishes Brought the Champagne Bottles?"
Baltimore at Buffalo (+3)
Quite the party week the Charm City Crowes are coming off. On Sunday, they laid the wood to the hard to figure Houston Texans, the same day they retired the knife-errrr, I mean the bloody white suit-errrrr, I mean the obstruction of justice tools-errrrr, I mean Ray Lewis' jersey-errrrr, or whatever the fuck they did for that born again Christian ego-maniac. Whatever it was, they honored Ray-Ray, they kicked Houston's ass, and then took a bottle upside the head from some stripper on a party bus in DC. Good times, Harbaugh.

The Bills haven't been awful thus far. They did lose a pretty ugly game to divisional foe NY Jets last weekend, but should've won week 1 against the Pats, and then beat what I feel is a pretty descent Carolina Panthers team.

Expect the "hangover" to be lingering with the Crowes. Not to mention their propensity to play down to their competition, having failed to cover their last 4 games on the road versus teams with losing records. The Bills are 6-2 ATS their last 8 following a SU loss, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Bills have played three straight games decided by one score or less. Expect that trend to continue. Ruff-Ruff. 22-19 Buffalo.

Arizona at Tampa (-2.5)
The Cardinals will end what will be a brutal traveling first month of the season (3 of 4 on road, including 2 trips of 1,500 miles or more) with what will be a Bucs/Doug Martin coming out party. I don't like all the travel for the Red Birds, and I like the shot in the arm Martin (and rookie QB Mike Glennon) will give a team that has just been absolutely reeling.

Arizona's run defense is an impressive 3rd in the league in fewest yards allowed. But hold it now (hit it! hit it!- Beasties reference), look who they've played through three weeks. The Rams (29th in rushing offense), the Lions (26th in rushing offense), and the Aints (24th in rushing offense). Not exactly Murderers' Row, Ray-Ray.

Now let me tell you about this guy Doug Martin, as this game ultimately will have less to do with Mike Glennon or Greg Schiano's *desperation move*.

(*Talking point this week on PTI, Around the Horn, Olbermann, Crossfire, McLaughlin Group, The View..i.e. Don't get caught up in that chatter, bettor man)

Doug Fucking Martin is second in the league in rushing yards. Doug Fucking Martin is coming off a rookie season, ala Alfred Morris, in which he ran for almost 1,500 yards. Doug Fucking Martin is going to have a huge day Sunday, and the Bucs get off the schnide, taking a huge dump on Carson Palmer and his 57% completion rate. The Red Birds are just 42% ATS on the road since 2002. Pirate ship goes Boom. 27-16 Bucs.

Dallas (-2.5) at San Diego
The most annoying thing about betting on a game in which the Chargers are playing, is having to watch that whiny little bitch Phillip Rivers cry to the referees about a bad call and/or to his receivers who ran the wrong route. Expect the 21st Century Dan Marino to have plenty to bitch about come Sunday, when his Bolts face Jerra's Boys.

As I mentioned last week, I like what I'm seeing from Tony Romo thus far. He's completing over 72% of his passes, and has thrown just 1 pick through 3 games (115 attempts). Dallas, though hammered this week by some other prognosticators regarding their low ATS % in spots, is a perfect 3-0 ATS in the 2013 campaign.

Romo, along with Demarco Murray- who went absolutely bonkers last week on the Rams defense, should remain on cruise control against a Chargers defense that is ranked 30th in the league, yielding 27 points/per, and- per my new favorite Twitter follow, RJ Bell- are giving up the most yards per snap in the league. The Bolts are a dismal 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. Jerra's Boys will have a two game lead on the rest of the NFC East by Sunday night. Dallas in a game that really won't be close, 37-24.

      "Mr. Blutarsky, do you know how many INTs Archie's
     middle son has thrown this season?"...Zero Point Zero.
Philadelphia at Denver (-10.5)
I hope its not too late to get on board the Peyton Manning ATS gravy train, because that sound you just heard is my drunk ass staggering on board said train.

"Hey, umm, cocktail waitress. Can you pour yours truly another ATS on the rocks? And do you have a wet towel?.... I think I've shit myself thru Week 3. "

Manning's (and Denver as a whole, as he does have some pretty good weapons) numbers through three weeks are disgusting. 42 points/per, and Archie's middle son's line reads: 1,143 yards, 73% completion rate, 12 touchdowns to zero point zero INTs, and 134.7 passer rating. That's slightly better than John Beck's tenure here in DC.

Chip Kelly opted to respond to a comment Archie's middle son made regarding their short week, and the fact that Philly has had the extra rest since their game two Thursdays ago. That is mistake number one, Chip. Mistake number two will be when you, your dog killing QB, and your Confederate Flag flying WR decide to post at Mile High at 2:25 Mountain Time.

Philly has given up an average of 30 points/per over their last 13 games. And during that span, have given up 31 TD passes to just 3 INTs.  Denver's defense, IMO, is much better than their numbers advertise. Though they've given up 23pts/per, they completely shut down Baltimore in the second half in their Week 1 beat down of the defending Champs, and Monday's 21 points yielded to Oakland was a little misleading. Essentially, 7 of it was a defensive score in garbage time, and 7 of it was RB Darren McFadden tricking it up with a TD pass. Otherwise, they completely shut Oakland down. I see no reason why the Broncos Express makes any stops for these ass hats. 44-14 Denver.

Miami at New Orleans (-6.5)
I must admit I'm playing this game because I'm a non-believer in 3-0 Miami. They're 3-0 ATS with some help last week from Falcons' Kicker Matt Bryant, who opted to stick it squarely up mine and everyone Else's asses who bet the Dirty Birds, by missing a late 4th Quarter chippy that would've most assured a (+2.5) cover.

Besides the fact that the Saints have their once pill popping head coach back, and they've retained the services of that long haired maniac Defensive Coordinator who looks like he probably destroys at least 4 toilets during a calendar year, the Dolphins are winning with smoke and mirrors. Case in point...

Last week's before mentioned last second win that had yours truly on tilt, the Dolphins were absolutely pollaxed statistically by the Falcons. Listen up: First Downs- 24-16 Atlanta, Total Yards: 377-285 Atlanta, Time of Possession: 37-23 Atlanta. Not to mention, Ryan Tannehill was sacked 5 times to Matty Ice's zero point zero.

Sean Payton has covered 11 straight homies, and the Saints have won and covered 7 straight prime time tilts. The old codgers from the 1972 Miami Dolphins team will definitely be popping those champagne bottles this week. Maybe with the help of the Ravens' Party Bus Bishes. 31-13 Saints.

Last Week 2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date 2-1 ATS
Overall Year to Date 5-10 ATS (33%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Week 3: Picking Up The Pieces

Prior to getting down on Yack's KC-3 pick last week,
this man lived in a 3,400 square foot house in a quiet,
gated community outside Atlanta.
Detroit at Washington (-2)
Lions' Head Coach Jim Schwartz likes heavy metal music. Last week, following my 0-5 ATS disaster, I wanted to hit myself in the head repeatedly with pots and pans. What's my point? Heavy metal music sucks, and Eminem's new drop* doesn't. (*black guy term that this white guy is trying to use so that I sound cool)

The Lions have lost 22 consecutive games to the Redskins in DC. However, the heavy metal music lover is 2-0 SU against the Redskins, both wins in Detroit. The problem for Schwartz this week is that this game is being played in DC, not some city where 2/3 of the commercial buildings are vacant, reeking of human urine and feces.

Reggie Bush's knee is more banged up than Kim Kardashian's privates. RG Knee takes another step forward in his mental rehab of not worrying about whether his RG Knee gives out again. Detroit is just 1-9 ATS their last 10 on grass. The Redskins are defending NFC East Champs who ran the table with 7 weeks to go. They WILL NOT open the season 0-3, losing at home to a team that hasn't beat them in DC since 1935. 28-17 Redskins.

St. Louis at Dallas (-4)
"F**k you, Yack, and your horsesh*t 0-5
 ATS picks!"
- Mildred Collins, Ames, Iowa
Tony Romo is leading the league in completion percentage (72.5). Jerry Jones is leading the league in most money charged for a 20" pizza at your home stadium ($60). On a side-note: you can order one of Jerry Jones' $60 pizzas for delivery, but his drivers carry less than $2000 cash.

I don't like the Rams in this spot at all. This game is sandwiched in between last week's road loss at Atlanta, and next Thursday's (4 days later) home game against divisional rival Frisco. If there was ever a case to be made that a professional football team might be looking forward to a game that could make or break their season four weeks in, this is the spot. Even with a coach as good as Fisher.

Dallas' running game hasn't gotten going yet and it might not this week either. The Rams' held Atlanta to just 36 yards rushing last week, but yielded 357 yards in the air, and through two weeks is ranked 28th against the pass. 75% of Cowboys fans have to get pre-qualified thru a lender, prior to ordering more than one pizza. 21-13 Cowboys.

Green Bay at Cincinnati (+2.5)
Be it not for blowing an 11 point second half lead and then taking an "away from the play" 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after stopping the Bears on 3rd and 6 in Week 1, the Bungholes might be 2-0. Also, if I hadn't lost every game last week ATS, I wouldn't have been subjected to the F-bomb filled email I got from my bet runner, The Legend.

Could've, should've, would've, and ifs is rubbish when it comes to handicapping NFL, but I'm finally ready to crown the Bungholes as a legitimate AFC contender, and I still don't think Green Bay is one of the NFL powerhouses that most of the betting and rooting public so fondly adore.

Green Bay's pass defense is 31st in the league through two weeks, yielding 359 yards/per. Also, three of their starters in the secondary are dinged up with bad hammies, including starting safety Morgan Burnett, who is most likely a scratch.

This isn't JV anymore, Packer fan. This will be a far cry from last week's ass thumping you gave the Redskins. You're going on the road versus a home dog who might be playing the AFC title game in January. The Pack is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 roadies. Conversely, the Holes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home tilts. Also, A-Rod is well on his way to another 45+ sack season (6 thru two games). Ruff-Ruff. 26-21 Bungholes.

"I hate that a**hole, Sportsyack. He convinced
me to bet everything on his 5 games last week, and
 now its back to double the blow jobs this week to pay
the bills!"
- Rhonda, Lakeland, Florida 
Atlanta (+2.5) at Miami
Rumor has it the 1972 Miami Dolphins undefeated team already has the champagne on ice, in anticipation of what will happen today to this year's 2-0 Dolphins club. Apparently during my 0-5 ATS stupor last week, I missed the memo announcing that the 2013 Dolphins were world beaters, and should be laying points to a team who went 13-3 last year.

Yes, the Falcons resemble a MASH Unit right now (4 starters out, including RB Steven Jackson, and 3 starters dinged up, including Julio Jones and Roddy White-oh wait, maybe the Falcons should be getting points here....), but I'm just not ready to crown Ryan Tannehill and the Fish.

The Dolphins have been out gained in yards in both wins thus far. Unlike the before mentioned Lions (fellow home domers), the Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 on grass. Pop the corks, Csonka. And keep the coke away from Mercury. 19-17 Falcons.

Oakland (+15) at Denver
The Broncos have scored 90 points through two games so far. Terrelle Pryor and the Oakland Raiders have scored just 36 points through two games. So any mathematician can tell you that the final score of this game will be 45-18 Denver. Only problem is, kids, that this isn't math class, this is NFL Prognosticating 101, and my name is Professor Yack. Now get out your god damn pen and paper, and turn to chapter 5!

Two angles I'm working here that will keep the Rai-duzz in the ball game. (1) Terrell Pryor will create problems for the Broncos with his legs, which Denver didn't have to worry about against big, tall, dorky white guy pocket passers in Week 1 (Flacco) or Week 2 (Eli). Pryor has 238 yards rushing through two weeks. (2) I think Oakland's front seven will create enough havoc, to at least temper Peyton and the high flying Broncos offense. I won't give them too much credit for shutting down Jax, but they did limit Andrew Luck to just 178 yards passing in Week 1, and collectively the Rai-duzz defense is ranked 4th overall through two games.

Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver, and they've covered 4 straight against AFC opponents. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games on MNF. 24-13 Broncos.

Last Week 0-5 ATS 
Year to Date 3-7 ATS (30%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter  *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

If director Terry Zwigoff had ended this movie immediately after the opening sequence, this might've won the 2003 Academy Award for Best Picture. Seriously. 

Saturday, September 14, 2013

NFL Week 2: "And He's (my bookie) Lookin' Scared!"

Looook Out!
Dallas at Kansas City (-3)
Here are some defensive nuggets from the Chiefs/Jaguars game last Sunday:
*The Chiefs sacked the Jags 6 times.
*The Chiefs allowed just 178 total yards.
*The Jags punted 11 times.
*The Jags didn't cross THEIR OWN 36 yard line, until midway thru the 4th quarter.

Now either the Jags and Maurice Jones Drew are completely awful, or new Chiefs D Coordinator Bob Sutton has done a pretty good job of emulating the 1985 Chicago Bears. Probably a little bit of both.

Speaking of new, Kansas City has a new head coach in Andy Reid, and a new quarterback at the helm in Alex Smith. And I think Reid is a huge factor in this game, considering he spent the previous 13 years preparing for Dallas twice every year. Also, as far as Alex Smith is concerned, he's 21-5-1 ATS in his last 27 starts.

Dallas barely held on Sunday night after the Giants spotted them 6 turnovers. I'm not sure how a team is an on sides kick away from getting a chance to win it after turning the ball over that many times, but that was the case last Sunday. And quite frankly, anyone who watched that game (as my anxious Dallas -3.5 betting ass did) would've seen a Giants team- who when not turning the ball over- moved the ball up and down the field at will. In fact, had Eli's brother not gone bonkers on the Ravens Thursday night, the younger Eli would be the league leader in yards passed for.

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 the week after scoring 30 points or more. Also, don't sleep on Tony Romo's sore ribs.  They will be a factor, especially if the Chiefs' front 7 gets to him like they did Gabbert. 27-17 Chiefs.

Miami at Indy (-1)
Three teams this week (Mia, Min, Ten) will be on the back end of back to back roadies, and I'm betting against two of those three this week. This game comes down to Ryan Tannehill versus Andrew Luck, and I get the latter at home laying less than a field goal.

Tannehill was efficient last week at Cleveland (24/38, 272, 1-1). However, he had absolutely no help on the ground. The Dolphins backs accumulated just 17 yards on 18 carries, and caught just two balls out of the backfield. Expect the Colts to tighten up, having let Terrell Pryor run all over them last week, and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.

Andrew Luck is pretty good at home since entering the league. He's 8-1 SU, and 7-2 ATS. And prior to last week's win in Cleveland, the Dolphins had lost 4 straight against the number on the road. Last week's game versus Oakland was an anomaly for Indy. They played virtually flawless (no turnovers and just 3 penalties) and still almost lost in the end. However, Tannehill's legs were not molded the same way Pryor's were, and that will be the difference. 30-21 Colts.

Tenn at Houston (-9)
Gary Kubiak is 0-6 ATS in his last 6 Week 1 season openers (including Monday night's ATS loss at San Diego). Conversely, he's 5-0 ATS in his last 5 Week 2 match ups. 

The Texans spotted the Bolts a 28-7 lead last week, and then opted to start trying.(or the Chargers reverted to being the Chargers) Matt Schaub's numbers were absurd. His final line read 34-45, 346, 3-1, for a 110 QB rating. Arian Foster and Ben Tate chipped in 120 yds on the ground.

The Texans have pretty much owned the Titans in this series winning three of the last four, with all three of those wins being in blowout fashion (24-10, 38-14, and 41-7). The team on the back end of back to back roadies, who won on the front end SU (Tenn beat Pitts at Pitts last week), is just 26% ATS since 2006 the following week. While most AFC prognosticators are slobbering over Denver and New England, it seems most have forgotten that the team in Houston is pretty good too. Houston in a rout.

Pittsburgh (+7) at Cincinnati
I'm not going to rip on Big H.A.T. Nation this week. Last week's abortion at home against the average Titans, was more than even myself could stomach. And I had the Titans plus the points.

I'm playing this game because I don't think HBO's Hard Knocks team is as good as most think, and I don't think the Steelers could play any worse than they did last Sunday. The Steelers have covered 11 of the last 12 meetings in Cincinnati. Mike Tomlin and Big Ben have too much pride to get boat raced on national television, and too much pride to get boat raced for the second week in a row. Did I just go to the pride card while advising you on where to lay your cash? Oh, yes I did.

The Bungholes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 MNF appearances. Also, this is the biggest underdog line Big Ben has ever faced, outside of games vs. Brady and P. Manning. Lastly, Mike Tomlin- amazingly enough- has never lost a game when taking the field with a losing record. I like the Steelers plus the points, but though tempted, will lay off them on the M/L. Ruff-Ruff. 23-20.

Thursday Night 0-1 ATS
Year to Date    3-3 ATS

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Sit Rex...Sit: Thursday Night Beat Down in Foxboro

Talk To The Hand
NY Jets at New England (-11.5)
This is a perfect storm game for New England bettors, and I'm jumping on board. The underdog Jets, who everyone was having fun with bitch slapping leading up to the regular season, pulled one out of their ass in Week 1 against Tampa. Meanwhile, Belichick and Brady escaped Buffalo in a game they should've lost. The Patriots are banged up and Geno Smith is giving the Jets faithful hope. Don't get caught up in the narrative, and don't shy away from the big number here.

Following the Jets comeback win, everyone was talking about the personal foul committed on Smith that put the Jets into field goal range. However, the Bucs committed 13 penalties that day and the hit out of bounds was simply the bow on top of the present they gave New York. Don't expect that much laundry on the field this week per New England, as Belichick teams are usually the most disciplined in the league, and committed just 4 penalties against Buffalo.

Don't lose track of the pre-season talk; the Jets still suck, and Rex "Foot Fetish" Ryan is still on his way out. Belichick and Brady have won 4 straight against Ryan and the Jets, including absolute blowouts in two of the last three (49-19 and 37-16).

The Patriots in Foxboro are virtually unbeatable against their division foes. They've won 16 of 17 SU, covered 13 of those 17 games, and the Brady/Belichick marriage is a perfect 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in Foxboro when facing a rookie QB. In fact, in all 4 of those games versus "the rook", the Patriots have prevailed by 14 points or more. 33-13 Patriots.

Last Week         3-2 ATS
YTD                  3-2 ATS  (60%)

Follow along here as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Wally's Fucking World

I apologize if I'm late to the party on these videos, as the show that they come from is over 5 years old now, but they're worth a second look even if you have seen them before.

Former MLBer, and member of the New York Mets 1986 World Series team, Wally Backman, was featured in a 2008 television documentary called "Playing for Peanuts". The show centered around Backman, who at the time managed the South Georgia Peanuts of the Independent South Coast League.

I would like to thank the Twitter-less and Facebook-less Judge Patrick for forwarding these to me the other day. I would also like to ask Nats' GM Mike Rizzo to get this guy on the fucking phone immediately. Enjoy Mr. Backman's tirades, as he makes Bruce Boudreau's HBO 24/7 locker room "speech" sound like a Catholic sermon. (NSFW)

Favorite quotes from video #1:

"The only way you can be a fucking champion is to work your fucking ass off!"

"Are you guys that fucking good?!? You're not, I'll tell you that right the fuck now!"

"Fucking wise up! Don't be fucking scared, cuz it looks like you're a bunch of cunts out there!"

And in closing...."Buddy (the pitching coach), go ahead and say what the fuck you want to say!"

Favorite quotes from video #2:

"That ain't even fucking close! What in the fuck are you looking at?!?!"

"Fuck you! Fuck you! Fuck you! Fuck you! You're a stupid fuck!"

"Minor league mother fucker is what you are!"

Favorite quotes from video #3

"God damnit, you've had a horseshit zone all day!"

"Take your report and shove it up your fucking ass! Put that in your fucking report, you little fucking pipsqueak!"

"I wanna know what I said."

"Pick that shit up, you dumb mother fuckers!"

"Catcher, get out of the way!"

"Let's go have a beer, Doc."

@Sportsyack on twitter

Friday, September 6, 2013

NFL Week 1: Are You Ready For Some ATS Winning Football?!?!

Miss Allegheny County, 2006
Tennessee (+7) at Pittsburgh
Sunday is fun-day, and Sunday is also "Dog Day" for Yack, as the only two games I'm playing in the day light hours, involve ruff-ruff- barking dogs. And no better place to kick off the Sunday card of the 2013 campaign, then in Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation. Smoke them menthols if you got them, girl with her hair teased to the moon, whose ass is as wide as the Allegheny River, because your team is going to f**king suck this year.

Now I don't put much weight in pre-season football, but Mike Tomlin's squad went 0-4 this summer. And considering (a) Tomlin's previous 6 pre-season campaign's produced 3-1 records each of those 6 summers, and (b) the 2012 Steelers lost 5 of their last 7 regular season games to complete their mediocre 8-8 2012 season, I think its time to take pause, Big Hairs.

Pre-season and regular season games combined, the Steelers have lost 9 of their last 11 games. They also are entering this contest with questions about their offensive line, and their run game. A run game that once produced studs like The Bus and even Rashard Mendenhall, is now relying on a dinged up Issac Redman to fill the hole left by an even more dinged up Le'Veon Bell.

In a game that essentially features two mediocre teams, I'll take my chance on the mediocre team catching a full touchdown and extra point, and a running back who can still bring it in Chris Johnson. I also like the fact that Johnson now has a viable (over 1,000 yards rushing last year, playing for the hapless Jets) back in Shonn Green to lighten the load. Tennessee beat Pittsburgh in Week 6 last year, 26-23. The Steelers are going to be very average this year. Take advantage of these early season over lays, and consider a M/L play in this game too. Ruff-Ruff. 20-17 Titans.

Seattle at Carolina (+3.5)
Lots of factors in play here that have me leaning on the Carolina Blue. For starters, I love playing against west coast teams playing on the east coast, in a game that starts at 1pm EST. Data from 2007-2011 (71 games) showed that the west coasters were a miserable 19-52 SU (26%) in this spot. This doesn't account for West Coast to East Coasters playing at 1pm EST, AND laying points.

Secondly, don't sleep on the Panthers. They were just 1 of 5 teams to finish the 2012 campaign on a 4-0 run (Den, Was, Minn, Sea), including wins at New Orleans and against Atlanta. They ended 2012 with a Top 10 defense and the 12th ranked offense in the league. And they have Cam Friggin Newton, possibly the most underrated QB in the league.

Newton accounted for 27 TDs last year, 19 through the air and 8 on the ground. He also had over 700 yards rushing. Pete Carroll's Seahawks have lost all three season opener roadies since PC's been at the helm, including the last two Week 1 roadies. This game comes down to a late 4th quarter field goal. Panthers.

NY Giants at Dallas (-3.5)
Somehow the G-men have won 3 of the last 4 between these two teams, including the last two games played in the House that Jerry Built.  Week 8 of last year, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to run out to a two touchdown lead, made a frantic comeback only to fall short, but completely dominated the G-men in the stats. NYG won the game 29-24, but Dallas had more 1st downs (28-11) and out gained them in total yards (434-293). That's absurd, actually.

Two years ago in Dallas, both teams went ape shit in the statistical categories, but the anomaly here was the 34-22 lead the Cowboys had with just 5:41 to go in regulation. That lead evaporated quickly, as the G-men scored two TDs in the final 3:14 to win 37-34. That too, absurd.

Dallas gets it done here and Tony Romo will leave his "choker" name tag in his locker; at least for this night. Dallas is much the best on paper, and as mentioned, probably should've won 3 of the last 4 vs NYG instead of losing 3 of 4. Dallas handled NYG in the Meadowlands in last year's opening Sunday night tilt. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games. Call me crazy, but this could be borderline blowout. 31-13 Cowboys.

"Of Course I'm Playing, Mother F**ker..."

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)
RG3. 26-20 Redskins.

Thursday Night             1-0 ATS
Year to Date                 1-0 ATS

Follow along here each week as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @sportsyack on Twitter

Speaking of 'covers', maybe the greatest cover ever? Its up there....

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

NFL Kickoff Thursday: Peyton's Place

Mr. Regular Season will Shine Thursday Night
Baltimore at Denver (-7.5)
The NFL season is finally upon us. Its been just under 8 months since Rahim Moore opted to do his best impression of what Tony Romo would look like, if Tony Romo played secondary; choking in the biggest moment of the game, on the biggest (ok, not the biggest, but pretty big) stage in football.

Joe Flacco's 70 yard bomb heard around the world, on 3rd down with 31 seconds left in regulation and zero timeouts, was certainly one of the most amazing plays of the 2012 NFL campaign. It sent the game into OT, it helped propel the Ravens onto the Conference Championship, and eventually on to Super Bowl Champions.

When Jacoby Jones came down with that ball and then essentially walked into the end zone, Raven Nation and all it's loud, obnoxious, drunk, "daddy issues" fans, didn't know whether to grab another Natty Boh or hide all their bloody white suits.

Lost in that final play and what many felt was Rahim Moore's fatal mistake, was the god awful game one Peyton Manning had (two picks, one fumble), and the fact that had Denver's special teams (two touchdowns) not looked like a 1990's Virginia Tech ST wrecking crew, Baltimore could've been up by two scores with 31 seconds to go, instead of down one.

But don't expect so many variables to come crashing into one game again with this meeting. Peyton will be regular season Peyton, and not only will Baltimore be suffering the lingering effects of a Super Bowl winning hangover, but that team is a shell of it's Super Bowl winning self.

They lost 8 starters to either free agency or retirement, including 6 on the defensive side of the ball. I don't care what kind of friggin' genius Ozzie Newsome is- and he has done one hell of a job as the Ravens' GM, you don't lose over 1/3 of your starting players and not feel the negative effects of it the following year. Especially in week 1.

Baltimore has covered 5 straight opening day games, but I'm obviously throwing that trend out here. I don't like how many players Baltimore lost, I like Manning at home in September, and I'd expect this game to go a lot like the one they played last year- in December, in Baltimore- where the Ravens got absolutely housed, 34-17. Denver and their 3rd ranked defense forced two Baltimore turnovers-one of which was a 98 yard pick six, and they held Ray Rice to just 38 yards rushing. Mr. Regular Season, Peyton Manning, had won 9 straight meetings versus Baltimore prior to that heartbreaking Divisional round loss. Broncos avenge that loss on Thursday night in a big way, 33-16.

4 more NFL ATS winners will be released on Saturday. A total of 5 ATS picks will be made each week, as "Yack" has entered the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest, where the best ATS prognosticators are rewarded at season's end. You can follow along here each week. @Sportsyack on Twitter.

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

By. Rich Turpin Week 1, Philadelphia "Let me fleece Mr. Snyder first, and then I'll see you in 2018!" The Redskins op...