Friday, September 6, 2013

NFL Week 1: Are You Ready For Some ATS Winning Football?!?!

Miss Allegheny County, 2006
Tennessee (+7) at Pittsburgh
Sunday is fun-day, and Sunday is also "Dog Day" for Yack, as the only two games I'm playing in the day light hours, involve ruff-ruff- barking dogs. And no better place to kick off the Sunday card of the 2013 campaign, then in Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation. Smoke them menthols if you got them, girl with her hair teased to the moon, whose ass is as wide as the Allegheny River, because your team is going to f**king suck this year.

Now I don't put much weight in pre-season football, but Mike Tomlin's squad went 0-4 this summer. And considering (a) Tomlin's previous 6 pre-season campaign's produced 3-1 records each of those 6 summers, and (b) the 2012 Steelers lost 5 of their last 7 regular season games to complete their mediocre 8-8 2012 season, I think its time to take pause, Big Hairs.

Pre-season and regular season games combined, the Steelers have lost 9 of their last 11 games. They also are entering this contest with questions about their offensive line, and their run game. A run game that once produced studs like The Bus and even Rashard Mendenhall, is now relying on a dinged up Issac Redman to fill the hole left by an even more dinged up Le'Veon Bell.

In a game that essentially features two mediocre teams, I'll take my chance on the mediocre team catching a full touchdown and extra point, and a running back who can still bring it in Chris Johnson. I also like the fact that Johnson now has a viable (over 1,000 yards rushing last year, playing for the hapless Jets) back in Shonn Green to lighten the load. Tennessee beat Pittsburgh in Week 6 last year, 26-23. The Steelers are going to be very average this year. Take advantage of these early season over lays, and consider a M/L play in this game too. Ruff-Ruff. 20-17 Titans.

Seattle at Carolina (+3.5)
Lots of factors in play here that have me leaning on the Carolina Blue. For starters, I love playing against west coast teams playing on the east coast, in a game that starts at 1pm EST. Data from 2007-2011 (71 games) showed that the west coasters were a miserable 19-52 SU (26%) in this spot. This doesn't account for West Coast to East Coasters playing at 1pm EST, AND laying points.

Secondly, don't sleep on the Panthers. They were just 1 of 5 teams to finish the 2012 campaign on a 4-0 run (Den, Was, Minn, Sea), including wins at New Orleans and against Atlanta. They ended 2012 with a Top 10 defense and the 12th ranked offense in the league. And they have Cam Friggin Newton, possibly the most underrated QB in the league.

Newton accounted for 27 TDs last year, 19 through the air and 8 on the ground. He also had over 700 yards rushing. Pete Carroll's Seahawks have lost all three season opener roadies since PC's been at the helm, including the last two Week 1 roadies. This game comes down to a late 4th quarter field goal. Panthers.

NY Giants at Dallas (-3.5)
Somehow the G-men have won 3 of the last 4 between these two teams, including the last two games played in the House that Jerry Built.  Week 8 of last year, the Cowboys allowed the Giants to run out to a two touchdown lead, made a frantic comeback only to fall short, but completely dominated the G-men in the stats. NYG won the game 29-24, but Dallas had more 1st downs (28-11) and out gained them in total yards (434-293). That's absurd, actually.

Two years ago in Dallas, both teams went ape shit in the statistical categories, but the anomaly here was the 34-22 lead the Cowboys had with just 5:41 to go in regulation. That lead evaporated quickly, as the G-men scored two TDs in the final 3:14 to win 37-34. That too, absurd.

Dallas gets it done here and Tony Romo will leave his "choker" name tag in his locker; at least for this night. Dallas is much the best on paper, and as mentioned, probably should've won 3 of the last 4 vs NYG instead of losing 3 of 4. Dallas handled NYG in the Meadowlands in last year's opening Sunday night tilt. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games. Call me crazy, but this could be borderline blowout. 31-13 Cowboys.

"Of Course I'm Playing, Mother F**ker..."

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)
RG3. 26-20 Redskins.

Thursday Night             1-0 ATS
Year to Date                 1-0 ATS

Follow along here each week as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @sportsyack on Twitter

Speaking of 'covers', maybe the greatest cover ever? Its up there....

No comments:

Post a Comment

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

By. Rich Turpin Week 1, Philadelphia "Let me fleece Mr. Snyder first, and then I'll see you in 2018!" The Redskins op...