Saturday, September 14, 2013

NFL Week 2: "And He's (my bookie) Lookin' Scared!"

Looook Out!
Dallas at Kansas City (-3)
Here are some defensive nuggets from the Chiefs/Jaguars game last Sunday:
*The Chiefs sacked the Jags 6 times.
*The Chiefs allowed just 178 total yards.
*The Jags punted 11 times.
*The Jags didn't cross THEIR OWN 36 yard line, until midway thru the 4th quarter.

Now either the Jags and Maurice Jones Drew are completely awful, or new Chiefs D Coordinator Bob Sutton has done a pretty good job of emulating the 1985 Chicago Bears. Probably a little bit of both.

Speaking of new, Kansas City has a new head coach in Andy Reid, and a new quarterback at the helm in Alex Smith. And I think Reid is a huge factor in this game, considering he spent the previous 13 years preparing for Dallas twice every year. Also, as far as Alex Smith is concerned, he's 21-5-1 ATS in his last 27 starts.

Dallas barely held on Sunday night after the Giants spotted them 6 turnovers. I'm not sure how a team is an on sides kick away from getting a chance to win it after turning the ball over that many times, but that was the case last Sunday. And quite frankly, anyone who watched that game (as my anxious Dallas -3.5 betting ass did) would've seen a Giants team- who when not turning the ball over- moved the ball up and down the field at will. In fact, had Eli's brother not gone bonkers on the Ravens Thursday night, the younger Eli would be the league leader in yards passed for.

Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 the week after scoring 30 points or more. Also, don't sleep on Tony Romo's sore ribs.  They will be a factor, especially if the Chiefs' front 7 gets to him like they did Gabbert. 27-17 Chiefs.

Miami at Indy (-1)
Three teams this week (Mia, Min, Ten) will be on the back end of back to back roadies, and I'm betting against two of those three this week. This game comes down to Ryan Tannehill versus Andrew Luck, and I get the latter at home laying less than a field goal.

Tannehill was efficient last week at Cleveland (24/38, 272, 1-1). However, he had absolutely no help on the ground. The Dolphins backs accumulated just 17 yards on 18 carries, and caught just two balls out of the backfield. Expect the Colts to tighten up, having let Terrell Pryor run all over them last week, and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm.

Andrew Luck is pretty good at home since entering the league. He's 8-1 SU, and 7-2 ATS. And prior to last week's win in Cleveland, the Dolphins had lost 4 straight against the number on the road. Last week's game versus Oakland was an anomaly for Indy. They played virtually flawless (no turnovers and just 3 penalties) and still almost lost in the end. However, Tannehill's legs were not molded the same way Pryor's were, and that will be the difference. 30-21 Colts.

Tenn at Houston (-9)
Gary Kubiak is 0-6 ATS in his last 6 Week 1 season openers (including Monday night's ATS loss at San Diego). Conversely, he's 5-0 ATS in his last 5 Week 2 match ups. 

The Texans spotted the Bolts a 28-7 lead last week, and then opted to start trying.(or the Chargers reverted to being the Chargers) Matt Schaub's numbers were absurd. His final line read 34-45, 346, 3-1, for a 110 QB rating. Arian Foster and Ben Tate chipped in 120 yds on the ground.

The Texans have pretty much owned the Titans in this series winning three of the last four, with all three of those wins being in blowout fashion (24-10, 38-14, and 41-7). The team on the back end of back to back roadies, who won on the front end SU (Tenn beat Pitts at Pitts last week), is just 26% ATS since 2006 the following week. While most AFC prognosticators are slobbering over Denver and New England, it seems most have forgotten that the team in Houston is pretty good too. Houston in a rout.

Pittsburgh (+7) at Cincinnati
I'm not going to rip on Big H.A.T. Nation this week. Last week's abortion at home against the average Titans, was more than even myself could stomach. And I had the Titans plus the points.

I'm playing this game because I don't think HBO's Hard Knocks team is as good as most think, and I don't think the Steelers could play any worse than they did last Sunday. The Steelers have covered 11 of the last 12 meetings in Cincinnati. Mike Tomlin and Big Ben have too much pride to get boat raced on national television, and too much pride to get boat raced for the second week in a row. Did I just go to the pride card while advising you on where to lay your cash? Oh, yes I did.

The Bungholes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 MNF appearances. Also, this is the biggest underdog line Big Ben has ever faced, outside of games vs. Brady and P. Manning. Lastly, Mike Tomlin- amazingly enough- has never lost a game when taking the field with a losing record. I like the Steelers plus the points, but though tempted, will lay off them on the M/L. Ruff-Ruff. 23-20.

Thursday Night 0-1 ATS
Year to Date    3-3 ATS

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter.

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