Saturday, September 28, 2013

NFL Week 4: Climbing Out of A Hole is Not Fucking Fun, Fuckers

Ravens Party Bus: "Which One Of Yo Big Ass
Bishes Brought the Champagne Bottles?"
Baltimore at Buffalo (+3)
Quite the party week the Charm City Crowes are coming off. On Sunday, they laid the wood to the hard to figure Houston Texans, the same day they retired the knife-errrr, I mean the bloody white suit-errrrr, I mean the obstruction of justice tools-errrrr, I mean Ray Lewis' jersey-errrrr, or whatever the fuck they did for that born again Christian ego-maniac. Whatever it was, they honored Ray-Ray, they kicked Houston's ass, and then took a bottle upside the head from some stripper on a party bus in DC. Good times, Harbaugh.

The Bills haven't been awful thus far. They did lose a pretty ugly game to divisional foe NY Jets last weekend, but should've won week 1 against the Pats, and then beat what I feel is a pretty descent Carolina Panthers team.

Expect the "hangover" to be lingering with the Crowes. Not to mention their propensity to play down to their competition, having failed to cover their last 4 games on the road versus teams with losing records. The Bills are 6-2 ATS their last 8 following a SU loss, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Bills have played three straight games decided by one score or less. Expect that trend to continue. Ruff-Ruff. 22-19 Buffalo.

Arizona at Tampa (-2.5)
The Cardinals will end what will be a brutal traveling first month of the season (3 of 4 on road, including 2 trips of 1,500 miles or more) with what will be a Bucs/Doug Martin coming out party. I don't like all the travel for the Red Birds, and I like the shot in the arm Martin (and rookie QB Mike Glennon) will give a team that has just been absolutely reeling.

Arizona's run defense is an impressive 3rd in the league in fewest yards allowed. But hold it now (hit it! hit it!- Beasties reference), look who they've played through three weeks. The Rams (29th in rushing offense), the Lions (26th in rushing offense), and the Aints (24th in rushing offense). Not exactly Murderers' Row, Ray-Ray.

Now let me tell you about this guy Doug Martin, as this game ultimately will have less to do with Mike Glennon or Greg Schiano's *desperation move*.

(*Talking point this week on PTI, Around the Horn, Olbermann, Crossfire, McLaughlin Group, The View..i.e. Don't get caught up in that chatter, bettor man)

Doug Fucking Martin is second in the league in rushing yards. Doug Fucking Martin is coming off a rookie season, ala Alfred Morris, in which he ran for almost 1,500 yards. Doug Fucking Martin is going to have a huge day Sunday, and the Bucs get off the schnide, taking a huge dump on Carson Palmer and his 57% completion rate. The Red Birds are just 42% ATS on the road since 2002. Pirate ship goes Boom. 27-16 Bucs.

Dallas (-2.5) at San Diego
The most annoying thing about betting on a game in which the Chargers are playing, is having to watch that whiny little bitch Phillip Rivers cry to the referees about a bad call and/or to his receivers who ran the wrong route. Expect the 21st Century Dan Marino to have plenty to bitch about come Sunday, when his Bolts face Jerra's Boys.

As I mentioned last week, I like what I'm seeing from Tony Romo thus far. He's completing over 72% of his passes, and has thrown just 1 pick through 3 games (115 attempts). Dallas, though hammered this week by some other prognosticators regarding their low ATS % in spots, is a perfect 3-0 ATS in the 2013 campaign.

Romo, along with Demarco Murray- who went absolutely bonkers last week on the Rams defense, should remain on cruise control against a Chargers defense that is ranked 30th in the league, yielding 27 points/per, and- per my new favorite Twitter follow, RJ Bell- are giving up the most yards per snap in the league. The Bolts are a dismal 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. Jerra's Boys will have a two game lead on the rest of the NFC East by Sunday night. Dallas in a game that really won't be close, 37-24.

      "Mr. Blutarsky, do you know how many INTs Archie's
     middle son has thrown this season?"...Zero Point Zero.
Philadelphia at Denver (-10.5)
I hope its not too late to get on board the Peyton Manning ATS gravy train, because that sound you just heard is my drunk ass staggering on board said train.

"Hey, umm, cocktail waitress. Can you pour yours truly another ATS on the rocks? And do you have a wet towel?.... I think I've shit myself thru Week 3. "

Manning's (and Denver as a whole, as he does have some pretty good weapons) numbers through three weeks are disgusting. 42 points/per, and Archie's middle son's line reads: 1,143 yards, 73% completion rate, 12 touchdowns to zero point zero INTs, and 134.7 passer rating. That's slightly better than John Beck's tenure here in DC.

Chip Kelly opted to respond to a comment Archie's middle son made regarding their short week, and the fact that Philly has had the extra rest since their game two Thursdays ago. That is mistake number one, Chip. Mistake number two will be when you, your dog killing QB, and your Confederate Flag flying WR decide to post at Mile High at 2:25 Mountain Time.

Philly has given up an average of 30 points/per over their last 13 games. And during that span, have given up 31 TD passes to just 3 INTs.  Denver's defense, IMO, is much better than their numbers advertise. Though they've given up 23pts/per, they completely shut down Baltimore in the second half in their Week 1 beat down of the defending Champs, and Monday's 21 points yielded to Oakland was a little misleading. Essentially, 7 of it was a defensive score in garbage time, and 7 of it was RB Darren McFadden tricking it up with a TD pass. Otherwise, they completely shut Oakland down. I see no reason why the Broncos Express makes any stops for these ass hats. 44-14 Denver.

Miami at New Orleans (-6.5)
I must admit I'm playing this game because I'm a non-believer in 3-0 Miami. They're 3-0 ATS with some help last week from Falcons' Kicker Matt Bryant, who opted to stick it squarely up mine and everyone Else's asses who bet the Dirty Birds, by missing a late 4th Quarter chippy that would've most assured a (+2.5) cover.

Besides the fact that the Saints have their once pill popping head coach back, and they've retained the services of that long haired maniac Defensive Coordinator who looks like he probably destroys at least 4 toilets during a calendar year, the Dolphins are winning with smoke and mirrors. Case in point...

Last week's before mentioned last second win that had yours truly on tilt, the Dolphins were absolutely pollaxed statistically by the Falcons. Listen up: First Downs- 24-16 Atlanta, Total Yards: 377-285 Atlanta, Time of Possession: 37-23 Atlanta. Not to mention, Ryan Tannehill was sacked 5 times to Matty Ice's zero point zero.

Sean Payton has covered 11 straight homies, and the Saints have won and covered 7 straight prime time tilts. The old codgers from the 1972 Miami Dolphins team will definitely be popping those champagne bottles this week. Maybe with the help of the Ravens' Party Bus Bishes. 31-13 Saints.

Last Week 2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date 2-1 ATS
Overall Year to Date 5-10 ATS (33%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

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