Sunday, September 22, 2013

Week 3: Picking Up The Pieces

Prior to getting down on Yack's KC-3 pick last week,
this man lived in a 3,400 square foot house in a quiet,
gated community outside Atlanta.
Detroit at Washington (-2)
Lions' Head Coach Jim Schwartz likes heavy metal music. Last week, following my 0-5 ATS disaster, I wanted to hit myself in the head repeatedly with pots and pans. What's my point? Heavy metal music sucks, and Eminem's new drop* doesn't. (*black guy term that this white guy is trying to use so that I sound cool)

The Lions have lost 22 consecutive games to the Redskins in DC. However, the heavy metal music lover is 2-0 SU against the Redskins, both wins in Detroit. The problem for Schwartz this week is that this game is being played in DC, not some city where 2/3 of the commercial buildings are vacant, reeking of human urine and feces.

Reggie Bush's knee is more banged up than Kim Kardashian's privates. RG Knee takes another step forward in his mental rehab of not worrying about whether his RG Knee gives out again. Detroit is just 1-9 ATS their last 10 on grass. The Redskins are defending NFC East Champs who ran the table with 7 weeks to go. They WILL NOT open the season 0-3, losing at home to a team that hasn't beat them in DC since 1935. 28-17 Redskins.

St. Louis at Dallas (-4)
"F**k you, Yack, and your horsesh*t 0-5
 ATS picks!"
- Mildred Collins, Ames, Iowa
Tony Romo is leading the league in completion percentage (72.5). Jerry Jones is leading the league in most money charged for a 20" pizza at your home stadium ($60). On a side-note: you can order one of Jerry Jones' $60 pizzas for delivery, but his drivers carry less than $2000 cash.

I don't like the Rams in this spot at all. This game is sandwiched in between last week's road loss at Atlanta, and next Thursday's (4 days later) home game against divisional rival Frisco. If there was ever a case to be made that a professional football team might be looking forward to a game that could make or break their season four weeks in, this is the spot. Even with a coach as good as Fisher.

Dallas' running game hasn't gotten going yet and it might not this week either. The Rams' held Atlanta to just 36 yards rushing last week, but yielded 357 yards in the air, and through two weeks is ranked 28th against the pass. 75% of Cowboys fans have to get pre-qualified thru a lender, prior to ordering more than one pizza. 21-13 Cowboys.

Green Bay at Cincinnati (+2.5)
Be it not for blowing an 11 point second half lead and then taking an "away from the play" 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after stopping the Bears on 3rd and 6 in Week 1, the Bungholes might be 2-0. Also, if I hadn't lost every game last week ATS, I wouldn't have been subjected to the F-bomb filled email I got from my bet runner, The Legend.

Could've, should've, would've, and ifs is rubbish when it comes to handicapping NFL, but I'm finally ready to crown the Bungholes as a legitimate AFC contender, and I still don't think Green Bay is one of the NFL powerhouses that most of the betting and rooting public so fondly adore.

Green Bay's pass defense is 31st in the league through two weeks, yielding 359 yards/per. Also, three of their starters in the secondary are dinged up with bad hammies, including starting safety Morgan Burnett, who is most likely a scratch.

This isn't JV anymore, Packer fan. This will be a far cry from last week's ass thumping you gave the Redskins. You're going on the road versus a home dog who might be playing the AFC title game in January. The Pack is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 roadies. Conversely, the Holes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home tilts. Also, A-Rod is well on his way to another 45+ sack season (6 thru two games). Ruff-Ruff. 26-21 Bungholes.

"I hate that a**hole, Sportsyack. He convinced
me to bet everything on his 5 games last week, and
 now its back to double the blow jobs this week to pay
the bills!"
- Rhonda, Lakeland, Florida 
Atlanta (+2.5) at Miami
Rumor has it the 1972 Miami Dolphins undefeated team already has the champagne on ice, in anticipation of what will happen today to this year's 2-0 Dolphins club. Apparently during my 0-5 ATS stupor last week, I missed the memo announcing that the 2013 Dolphins were world beaters, and should be laying points to a team who went 13-3 last year.

Yes, the Falcons resemble a MASH Unit right now (4 starters out, including RB Steven Jackson, and 3 starters dinged up, including Julio Jones and Roddy White-oh wait, maybe the Falcons should be getting points here....), but I'm just not ready to crown Ryan Tannehill and the Fish.

The Dolphins have been out gained in yards in both wins thus far. Unlike the before mentioned Lions (fellow home domers), the Falcons are 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 on grass. Pop the corks, Csonka. And keep the coke away from Mercury. 19-17 Falcons.

Oakland (+15) at Denver
The Broncos have scored 90 points through two games so far. Terrelle Pryor and the Oakland Raiders have scored just 36 points through two games. So any mathematician can tell you that the final score of this game will be 45-18 Denver. Only problem is, kids, that this isn't math class, this is NFL Prognosticating 101, and my name is Professor Yack. Now get out your god damn pen and paper, and turn to chapter 5!

Two angles I'm working here that will keep the Rai-duzz in the ball game. (1) Terrell Pryor will create problems for the Broncos with his legs, which Denver didn't have to worry about against big, tall, dorky white guy pocket passers in Week 1 (Flacco) or Week 2 (Eli). Pryor has 238 yards rushing through two weeks. (2) I think Oakland's front seven will create enough havoc, to at least temper Peyton and the high flying Broncos offense. I won't give them too much credit for shutting down Jax, but they did limit Andrew Luck to just 178 yards passing in Week 1, and collectively the Rai-duzz defense is ranked 4th overall through two games.

Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver, and they've covered 4 straight against AFC opponents. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games on MNF. 24-13 Broncos.

Last Week 0-5 ATS 
Year to Date 3-7 ATS (30%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the 2013 Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter  *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

If director Terry Zwigoff had ended this movie immediately after the opening sequence, this might've won the 2003 Academy Award for Best Picture. Seriously. 

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