Saturday, October 26, 2013

NFL Week 8: Like The Rest of The Overly Sensitive Pussies in This Country, I'm Offended....By My ATS Record

Tom's play on the field this year; not
nearly as pretty as his face.
Miami at New England (-6.5)
Between illegal video tapings and trying to break rules that were just implemented 3 months ago, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are running out of their "competitive advantages". Its time to just sack up ( and Tom Brady, that includes you and your 55% completion rate, and 75.3% QB rating), and beat somebody's ass. You're up, Dolphin fan.

I called out Miami as a fraud 3 weeks ago, after they ran out to a 3-0 record, and I told my readers to pound New Orleans in Week 4, when the Dolphins visited N'Orleans on Monday Night Football. That was a week after they squeaked out a last second win at home against a very average Atlanta team. And since that Monday night beat down, its been nothing but Ls.

The Patriots are 10-2 SU vs. Miami since 2006. They won last year's match-ups 28-0 and 23-16. Brady should improve his stat line against the 25th ranked pass D in the league. I'm pulling a Martingale System here (they're due, baby!!), as New England is a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the AFC. Don't be scurrrred, bettor man. 27-19 Patriots.




Dallas at Detroit (-3.5)
Counting that moral victory Dallas had against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, Dallas is riding a 3 game winning streak. Coincidentally, Jerry Jones once famously told the first post WW II generation in Japan that "three eyes, one ear, and glow in the dark fingers are better than nothing...."

One of my favorite spots occurs in this game. A team coming off a road win who is on the road again (Dallas), at a team who is coming off a home loss (Detroit), whose at home again. The team in Detroit's spot has covered in this situation 73% (55-20) of the time since 2002.

Detroit wins this game in a shootout (Over is 4-0 in these two teams' last 4 match-ups). Matthew Stafford throws for no less than 400 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, following a game in which they allowed 15 points or less (17-3 winners at Philly last week). 38-31 Lions.




The Steelers must contend with the Black Hole
Pittsburgh at Oakland (+2.5)
Just when Big Hair, Big Ass, Big Truck Nation starts gaining some "Mo", they travel to Oakland for a game at that shit hole stadium, in that shit hole city (I can say that, as I've been there for a baseball game. I would rather be gang banged by Martellus Bennett and Greg Oden, then have to go back to that dumpster fire).

Oakland- and more importantly, the once hurt Terrelle Pryor- is well rested coming off his bye. And up until last year, the Rai-duzz were an absolute disaster following their bye (0-9 ATS since 2003). But second year coach Dennis Allen ended that streak and started a winning streak of his own last year, with his ATS win at a very good (last year) Atlanta team following their bye week, and I'm riding that streak this Sunday.

Listen up. I don't think Oakland is awful, and I think you just need to break down their last three games to catch my drift. Home loss vs. Washington, in which they had a guy at QB who is no longer in the league and Darren McFadden, who was knocked out in the first half. Home win against what's looking like a pretty good Chargers team, and then prior to the bye, a loss at undefeated Chiefs, which was expected.

I just don't think the Steelers are very good this year, and if you're offering me points at home, versus a team who is flying across country to lay them, then let me know where I can sign up. In fact, tell your man to pound the vig straight up his fat ass, and play the Rai-duzz on the money line. Ruff-Ruff, 24-17 Oakland.




NY Jets (+6.5) at Cincinnati
I've yet to give out two barking dogs in one week this year. And not only am I going to give you two adorable, cuddly canines this glorious week, I'm going to advise you to bet both of them on the money line as SU, big fat, hairy winners.

The Bungholes are on a nice three game run right now. An ugly, rainy home win against New England, followed by two last second road wins against Buffalo and Detroit. I'm betting on them not to maintain that pace this weekend against a young, inspired, nothing to lose NY Jets team, whose defense is nothing to sneeze at (4th in total yards allowed/game). Not to mention, the Bungholes- though riding that three game heater, have been torched over the past couple weeks defensively. Their secondary has given up 573 yards and 5 TDs over the last two weeks, including 322 total yards against the Thad Lewis led Bills.

Three game heater aside, the Bungholes still don't impress me, as the rest of their 2013 resume includes losses to Chicago and Cleveland (average teams), a struggle against bad Pittsburgh, and a miracle win at home vs Green Bay. Not world beater material by any stretch, and I think this line is a HUGE overlay. Jets win outright, in a low scoring affair. The Bungholes last 10 games vs the AFC are 9-1 Under. Ruff- Ruff, 19-17 Jets.




Atlanta at Arizona (-2.5)
The only other disaster worse than Obama-care and the pre-Case Keenum led Texans, is the shit show that is taking place in Hotlanta this year. Not only are the perennial underachievers underachieving, but they're banged up too. And as they make just their 3rd trip outside of the Georgia Dome this year, you should expect their road incompetence (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU) to continue this week in the desert.

The Red Birds are on extra days rest, having played their last game two Thursdays ago when they got worked by a very good Seahawks team. But they did prevail in their only other home games against better than average Carolina and Detroit. And I like what Bruce Arians and crew has done following losses; Zona is 5-1 ATS in their last 6,  following an ATS loss. 

65% of the betting public is on the Falcons this week, which is something you should always avoid. Also, try to avoid teams (the Falcons, in this case) who are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 roadies. Mike Smith should have his agent make sure all the 'T's are crossed and the 'I's dotted on his resume, because that white haired bastard will not be roaming the Dirty Birds' sideline this time next year. 27-21 Cardinals.



Last Week                                               2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date                  5-2 ATS
Overall Year To Date                        16-19 ATS (46%)


Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*




Ok, can someone tell me what in the FUCK is going on here? And how come I keep watching this over, and over, and over again?












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