Tuesday, November 26, 2013

An NFL Turkey Day ATS Winner

Two Rings, 63.2 career Comp. %, 92.6 Passer Rating,
and just 38 yards
shy of 33,000 passing yards. #Winner
Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore
Big H.A.T. Nation has had less reasons to bury their frustration away in shitty beer, fatty foods, and menthol cigarettes, in between beating the shit out of their wife and kids, as the team with the worst throw back u-neez in all of football have been balling lately. They're 3-0 SU and ATS over their last 3 contests, and the Steelers are getting much better play by both Big Ben and the Steel Curtain.

The Steelers' quarterback- who patented the pick up line, "Can you send someone up to my room to fix my TV?... Preferably a woman."- has been practically flawless during this stretch, throwing 7 TDs to just 1 pickle. And defensively, the Steel Curtain has forced 8 turnovers during that same 3 game span.

The number 3, what does that mean to you? Dale Earnhardt? Dale Murphy? The number of total owners of the Washington Redskins (Dan Snyder, RG3, and RG2)? How about the point differential between these two teams over their last 4 head to head meetings? And how about its the point differential between these two teams in 8 of their last 10 head to heads. Pretty amazing, actually.

Remember when Ray Rice and Baltimore's running game was Top 10? Actually, they were 11th and 10th respectively over the last two years. This year is a different story. They've only rushed for over 100 yards once in their last 6 games, and their 2013 tally thus far is a pitiful 27th in the league overall. Someone get Cam Cameron on the phone. #JustSaying

Joe Flacco and Joe Flacco alone cannot beat Pittsburgh. Especially a Pittsburgh team that is on a mini-surge right now. And the fact is, Baltimore is just an average team this year whose lost 4 of their last 6 SU. Also a fact, Pittsburgh has covered 4 of their last 5 played in Charm City. Celebratory chicken pot pies, Iron City Beer, and blumpkins (if you're lucky, guys) in Steeler fan households everywhere tonight. 24-20 Steelers. 

*The remaining Week 13 card will be posted by Sunday morning* Pitts/Balt line as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Saturday, November 23, 2013

NFL Week 12: I'm So Close To .500 That I Can Almost Smell It. Or Is That My Own Ass?

Chicago at St. Louis (-1)
I am The Fisher King. I Can Do Anything.
Who out there bets horses? (i.e. who else is a total degen like me?) One of my favorite lines to play on a horse race, is pitting one horse against another, based on better class, or more relevant races run versus the other. Here are the Bears last 4 opponents; Washington (3-7), Green Bay (5-5), Detroit (6-4), and Baltimore (4-6), 2-2 over that span.  And here are the Rams; Carolina (7-3), Seattle (10-1), Tennessee (4-6), and Indy (7-3).

St. Louis played much tougher competition, and the Rams 1-3 record over that span is no surprise. But they did beat Indy, and beat them bad, and the only game they weren't really in over that span was at Carolina. In fact, they were one play away from beating 10-1 Seattle.

I'll take Jeff Fisher all day at home in this spot, especially coming off a bye (13-5 ATS career). Also, Kellen Clemens has been very good his last two outings. Ride his heater this week versus Chicago's 24th ranked defense. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. I. Love. This. Game. 26-16 Rams.

Tampa Bay (+9) at Detroit
The Fuccaneers have won two games in a row, and they're on a 3 game ATS heater since "contracting" MRSA. The Lions, whose coach apparently hates chip shot field goal attempts to potentially take a 7 point lead on the road, are very up and down. They control their own destiny with 6 games to go, but they've failed to cover 3 of their last 4, and I hate them in this spot laying a monster number against a team whose playing well as of late.

The Fucs are coming off wins against Atlanta and Miami, and somehow pissed away a 21-0 lead at a very good Seattle team 3 weeks ago. Mike Glennon is finding his groove, some kid named Bobby Rainey ran wild on Sunday, and their defense has been stout. They gave up 15 meaningless, late game points against Atlanta, in a game that was an absolute blowout, and yielded just 19 and 27 to Miami and Seattle the weeks prior. Also, Tampa's offense has scored 22 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games.

Detroit is an exciting team to watch, and since I bet them 5 weeks ago to win the NFC at 13/1, I have a little bit of a rooting interest the rest of the way. But bottom-line, they're defense is very suspect (yielding over 25 points/per) and they shouldn't be giving (almost) double digit points to anybody. Looky here, man: although 2-8, Tampa has led at one point, in 8 of their 10 games. 33-27 Lions.

Carolina at Miami (+4)
This Guy Runs Miami's "Toughen The
Fuck Up" Department
If Monday night was Carolina's Big Boy moment, then this Sunday's, short week/travel to Miami tilt, is Big Boy moment's 1a (another horse reference, guys). And unfortunately for them, I think the 1/1a, one-two punch is going to backfire, as the outside horse (Miami) "coming off a claim", is going to get them at the wire.

Seriously, props to Carolina (and me, as I had them ATS) for their Monday night triumph. The gift at the end of the game by the refs, truly overshadowed what was a very good performance by Cam and Crew. They have now won and covered 6 games in a row, which is very impressive. However, this is a bad spot for them. Short week, traveling, and having just shown the world on national TV that they're for real. Can you say "let down"?

Amid all the sensitivity training down in South Florida, the Flippers have managed to win 2 of the their last 3, including consecutive home wins. In fact, the Flippers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home tilts. And their defense has started to sack up. They've only allowed one passer to throw for over 300 yards over their last 6 games (Andy Dalton), and remarkably, held Tom Brady to just 116 yards passing in a game Miami lost. Carolina's streak is up, in what will be a low scoring affair. 19-17 Flippers.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Arizona
The Cardinals are getting a lot of run as of late, because they've rattled off 3 straight wins. But take a look at who those 3 opponents were; Jacksonville, Houston, and Atlanta. Those 3 teams have a combined 5-26 record. Poo-Poo. Also, Carson Palmer- another on the long list of Southern Cal QBs who aspire to suck once they reach the NFL, doesn't impress me. He's actually thrown more picks (15) than TDs (14). Somebody who does impress me- Andrew Effing Luck.

Andrew Luck, who inherited a 2-14 team as a rookie, turned that boat around to the tune of 11-5 and a playoff berth. More impressive IMO, is that the guy with the goofy laugh is (regular season) 8-5 ATS on the road.

Give me the team with the much better QB, on extra days rest (played two Thursdays ago), who is in desperate need of getting out to an early lead, and laying the wood. If you could play the due factor based on what teams have done just in the first half as of late, the Colts are the team for you (due, baby). Their last 3 tilts have resulted in first half deficits of 17-6, 28-0, and 21-3. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been losing or tied at halftime, in 3 of their last 4. Zona is 2-5 ATS, last 7 vs a team with a winning record. 29-20 Colts.

San Francisco at Washington (+5.5)
If Dan "Suck In My Gut" Snyder Gave a Hoot About His Team,
He'd Sign The Horny Bastard on The Left To an Extension
The Redskins (ha-ha, I said it, Mike Wise) are back to their old ways. And by "old ways", I mean stinking up the fucking joint, all by their lonesome in the cellar of the NFC Least. But no worries, Redskins' fans. Dan Snyder is about to fire a guy and then hire a guy for the 8th time in 14 years, and we'll get'em next year!!!!

RG-Me had finally gotten around to playing well until Sunday's debacle in Philly. With the exception of the Denver game, he's played well over the last month or so, and certainly well enough to win against Chicago, San Diego, and Minnesota- winning 2 of those 3. One guy who has been consistent week in and week out, is Alfred Morris. The 6th rounder, who soon to be fired Mike Shanahan stole from the 2012 draft, is 3rd in the league in rushing yards, and has a very non-6th round looking, 5.1 yards per carry. ("Mike got lucky with that draft pick."- said by typical Shanahan hater, who most likely calls sports talk radio shows, and who begins every comment with, "let me tell you sum-tin', man...")

San Francisco is coming off a tough loss against New Orleans thanks to Roger Goodell's two hand touch rule book, and they will be on the road for the second consecutive week. They've been less impressive this year, primarily because their passing game is a disaster. But luckily for them, they get to face a defense whose on the same talent level with Stone Bridge High School's JV team. (my apologies to SBHS JV team)

Colin Kap will probably have some success against the before mentioned defense. But as much as he needs Washington's defense to right the ship, you can say the same for what the Redskins need right now; a battered team, coming off a tough road loss, on the back end of consecutive roadies, whose passing game is abysmal. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record (another interesting tid-bit, Shanahan haters). Alfred Morris, not Frank Gore, will be running wild on Monday night. Ruff-Ruff, 27-24 Redskins.

Last Week                                               3-1-1 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date                    9-8 ATS
Overall Year To Date                      26-28-1 ATS (48%)
Reg. Season ATS Since 2009   173-134-11 ATS (56.3%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

This is my pet hippo, Timmy. I'm bringing him to my parents' house for Thanksgiving.

Sunday, November 17, 2013

NFL Week 11: Please, Someone.... Stop The Pain of a Sub .500 Season

Jim Haslett's Worst Nightmare
Washington at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Mike Shanahan, according to all the experts on twitter, should be fired at season's end. And he needs to take his horrible, consistently Top 5 offensive coordinator son with him. Unlike Dan Snyder, they don't know shit about football.

Napoleon Foles has more than just nun-chuck skills; his passing skills are pretty sweeeeet too. He's 4-1 in his starts as the Eagles QB, he's completing about 64% of his passes, and he's thrown 16 TDs to zero point zero INTs.

Jim Haslett's defense has stopped virtually nobody this year. Josh McCown and Christian Ponder- who I think were serving me cotton candy at last year's Ashburn Fest, looked like the second comings of Johnny U and Joe Montana the weeks they faced Haslett's D. And if you think the Redskins secondary has a chance against Pedro's only friend, you're a friggin' idiot!

Philly won't continue to lose home games, folks. In fact, that anomaly ends this weekend. LeSean McCoy has had 423 total yards in these two teams last 3 match ups. He will kill them underneath, Napoleon Foles will pick apart them up top, and Dan Snyder will take another step closer towards gaining back full control of his team, god damnit! 36-27 Eagles.

Oakland at Houston (-7)
The last time I bet on the Texans, they went into halftime with a comfortable 21-3 lead over Indy. The only problem was that their coach failed to go into halftime with them. He was laying on the turf with a crooked face, doing his best Dick Clark impression; "Dappy Dew Dear!!!"

Case Keenum has the coolest name for a QB since Johnny Football. And Johnny Football has the coolest name for a QB since Timmy Dicksmasher (he was on my Lower Loudoun 'B' League football team, circa 1984). In any case, Case Keenum- though 0-3 as a starter in Houston, is playing like a man possessed. 7 TDs,  0 picks, and a 107 passer rating is pretty damn good.

Seriously, until Kubiak's halftime mini-stroke, Case Keenum and the Texans were absolutely working a very good Indy team. And with a much inferior opponent coming into their house today, on the back end of consecutive roadies, like OJ said, Oakland fan, "Looooook Out!!!!"

Houston has lost 7 in a row, and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. That's not good, 46%  ATS Yack. But neither is the Raiduzz 1-8-1 ATS record in their last 10 following an ATS win. I'm making a case for Case here, in a blowout. 37-9 Texans.

Minnesota at Seattle (-12.5)
This Muh Fuggah Is Going To Run Wild on Sunday
The Suckhawks have been moving along pretty swimmingly this season, virtually under the radar as teams like the Saints, Broncos, and the surprising Chiefs have garnered most of the talking heads' attention.

The reality of their season thus far is that they're a 9-1 team who should probably be 6-3 or 5-4. They literally escaped losses to Carolina, Houston, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. But I think this is a spot where they keep the home stretch part of the season heater going, (See last week's dismantling at Atlanta) and they absolutely pummel a not very good team in Minnesota, at home.

Seattle's defense is a solid 3rd overall (yards allowed/points allowed per game), but their offense can be sneaky good. They've scored 27 or more points in three of their last four, and along with Marshawn Lynch's 4.6 yards/per, they lead the league in rushing offense. Seattle hasn't really beaten a team's ass at home since Weeks 2 and 3 (SF, Jax), and I think they're due. Seattle is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 at home vs. teams with a losing record. Minnesota has nothing here, and will be poll-axed by a Seattle team who realizes its game on time. 34-6 Seahawks.

San Francisco at New Orleans (-3)
Colin Kapernick and the 49ers pass attack (I apologize to the word 'attack' for using it in the opening sentence) isn't exactly getting it done this year. 32nd in the league (DFL), and they are 13 yards and change behind the next to DFL passing teams in the league, Oakland and Tampa. That's awful, Lurch.

But those abysmal numbers aren't all on CK. His tight end is banged up, Michael Crabtree is banged up, and Anquan Boldin is not running past a single corner in this league. The ugly- and I mean the ugly reality of it, is that through 9 games, Kapernick has only thrown for over 200 yards twice, and he's thrown for 150 yards or less, 4 times. Uhhhh....Bevis???

Sean Payton and the Saints are pretty good, and they're really good at home. Counting this year and Sean Payton's last year as the Saints coach in 2011, he's undefeated at home, and has covered 13 of his last 14 at home, which is a sick stat alone. But take a look at the margins of victory over that same span. Starting with last week's dismantling of Dallas, and going back to the Saints first home game in 2011, the Saints have won at home by 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, and 17. That's an average margin of victory of 22 points. That's a stat that I put in the "fucking absurd" category. Saints win 27-5.

New England at Carolina (-2.5)
Move Over, Tom. There is Room For More
Than One Pretty Boy QB in This League. 
Monday, November 18, 2013, will be the day in the 2013 NFL Season, in which the rest of the uninformed public steps back and says, "Whoa. Carolina is for real." 

And they are. If I can play the could've, should've, would've game for two seconds, this team could be 8-1 right now. Last minute losses in consecutive weeks at the beginning of the season, is really the only reason they're not. Because they've won 5 in a row, they have the # 2 defense in the league, and they just went toe for toe with Frisco, and beat them on the road at their own game.

New England is coming off a bye, they're 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday night tilts, and I realize most of the betting public loves Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. So why in the F is Carolina a slight favorite here? Exactly. This line looks too good to be true for most of you donks, and it will be. Besides the fact that the Panthers are a good team, and will make pretty boy Tom's life miserable Monday night.

Tuesday morning, when the Panthers are 7-3 and just a game back of the Saints in that division, Who Dat Nation might want to strap up their helmets and tighten their laces. Besides two dates with those Saints, the rest of the Pussy Cats schedule is not exactly murderer's row. If they can get a split with dem Saints, they could win said division. One last thing; the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 roadies. 23-19 Carolina.

I did not take a "Barking Dog" for the LVHSC this week, so for the sake of doing so and maintaining an ATS "Barking Dog" record, I am taking the Packers (+4) over NYG. Ruff-Ruff....

Last Week                                            2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date              9-7 ATS
Overall Year To Date                    23-27 ATS (46%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

For those of you who care, or even if you don't, I went in 50/50 on the LVHSC with a retired buddy of my old man, and quite frankly a buddy of mine at this point in life, Irv aka, "The Legend". He lives about 15 minutes outside the Vegas Strip, and he's the guy who submits our picks each Thursday morning at the Hilton. Anyway, The Legend is an interesting individual, with quite the sense of humor. His running joke, that he's been using for the last 20 years, is that my 5'11", 190 lb father (Jeffrey) is fat (generally refers to him as 'Fat Fuck') and that my very successful electrician uncle is stupid (refers to him as 'Uncle Dummy', as his name is actually Tommy).

Anyway, The Legend- deservingly so, has been busting my balls all year because of my poor prognosticating abilities thru the 2013 campaign. And in his weekly emails to me, in which he copies about 6-7 of our mutual friends, including my father, uncle, and others, he began to run with this bit about how the teller at the Hilton Sports Book began making fun of our piss poor record. So to better understand The Legend, and the abuse I get each week during this most frustrating ATS season, here is what he sent this week. Enjoy. (The Legend loves Johnny Football, hence the reference below)


   Herewith ur lines for this week…..philly minus 3 ½….hou minus 7…..sea minus 12 ½….no minus 3…car minus 2 ½……as explained to ur simple ass on the phone is that the leader is 19 games over 500…..i refuse to go into the wallow of horse shit where u are…..bad enuff that the ticket taker snickers at ‘’sportsyack’’, but this morning the manager wanted to come out and introduce himself to the ‘’yack’’ he is a ‘’FAT FUCK’’, no offense Jeffrey, and he had the ‘’stones’’ to suggest that I change my name from ‘’sportsyack’’ to ‘’sportsDUMMY’’…I told the ‘’fat fuck’’, again no offense Jeffrey, to go fuck himself and I wud be making a run of victories of magical proportions…….i left the book in disgrace and disgust…I felt that I had been sodomized and it was not even Johnny football.  It was ugly and hi and dry…..The Legend did not sign up for this kind of abuse…get with the fucking program ‘’yack’’…there is still time but u gotta get it going……Legend 

Sunday, November 10, 2013

NFL Week 10: At A Loss For Words

Should Dan Snyder fire This Guy at Season's End?
Oakland at NY Giants (-7)

Cincinnatti at Baltimore (+1.5)

Houston at Arizona (-2.5)

Denver at San Diego (+7) *Barking dog*

Thursday Night                                0-1 ATS
Last Week                                        2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date           8-6 ATS
Overall Year to Date                   21-25 ATS (46%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH sports book. 

Thursday, November 7, 2013

NFL Week 10 Thursday Night ATS Winner: Word Up

How Can The New Name Be "Bravehearts"?
Isn't This Guy An Anti-Semite?
R-words (-2.5) at V-words
RG3 and the R-words have been an enigma (I said, 'enigma', relax...) this year. Griffin has shown signs of his fabulous rookie campaign, but he's also shown signs of a guy in a Sophomore slump. Now granted, his rush to get back on the field- thanks to his meddling owner, Dan Snyder, overruling Mike Shanahan wanting to sit Griffin thru September,  didn't help things. So you've got to give him somewhat of a pass, all things considered. And the R-words' defense has been nothing to write home about. However, take a look at the m-word's row of quarterbacks they've faced thus far.

Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, and Phillip Rivers. Now statistically speaking, 3 of those 5 (Manning, Stafford, and Romo) are NFL Top 5 ranked right now, and the other 2 (Rivers, A-Rod) are in the Top 10. 

For being a guy who is passed off as an a-word clown by the geniuses of the world like Jason La-C-word-fora and Jamie Dukes, Kyle Shanahan has done a pretty good job considering the m-word's row of QBs his defense has faced, and the fact that he's part of a team whose special teams unit is a complete s-word show.

Over the last three weeks, Kyle's offense has rushed for 530 yards and 8 touchdowns. That's 176 yards/game over that stretch, folks. That's pretty f-word good. To put that in perspective, the top NFL rushing team in the league through 9 weeks are the 49ers, who are doing so at 153 yards/per. The R-words, relative to other Offensive stats during that span, would be 2nd in points scored and 3rd in total yards gained.

Minnesota f-word sucks. They're 1-7, they've lost 4 in a row, and they seem to be playing "duck, duck, goose" when determining who will start at QB each week. And they're in for a long night against a team who is pounding the rock better than any team right now. Two of the V-word's last four games are an interesting "look" at what they do against teams who can run the ball.

At home against Carolina- a team who is 8th in the league in rushing yards/game, they got their doors b-word off and gave up 131 on the ground. At Green Bay- who are 2nd in the league in pounding the rock, they got pollaxed, and gave up 182 on the ground. Uhh-oh, V-words fan.

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 between these two. Also, don't sleep on AP's abysmal numbers versus the R-words. In his last 3 games against them; 79, 38, and 36 yards rushing. Poo-poo- ooops, I mean, p-word, p-word. 31-16 R-words. 

*YTD standings and the rest of the NFL Week 10 card will be posted on Sunday*

Friday, November 1, 2013

NFL Week 9: Nothing But Barking Dogs. (I'm Talking About My ATS Winners, You Dopes)

Atlanta (+7.5) at Carolina
I hate the Falcons. Honestly, I don't know what the fuck I'm thinking here. I've told you that Mike Smith is out of a job at season's end, and that Matt Ryan and crew are perennial losers, so what am I doing laying big, fat, sloppy cash on them? Its called Martingale, baby, and familiarity with opponent.

The Fuckans have lost 4 of their last 5, and in 2 of their last 3, they were never even in the contest (at Arizona, home vs NY Jets). Conversely, the Panthers have won 4 of their last 5, and have covered descent sized numbers (-6.5 at Tampa, -7.5 home vs St. Louis) in their last 2. But this is the spot where you jump on the loser, and fade the winner.

The Fuckans have won 4 of their last 5 against their divisional foes, and they've scored 30 points or more in 5 of the last 6 these two have played. And in the last 3 match ups between these two, Matty Ice has gone Falcon off. His stat line reads: 81 of 127/ 1,031 yards, 9 TDs to 2 INTs, with a 107.2 Quarterback rating.

Cam and Crew have been a betting fave of mine all year. But I'm not ready to lay a big number against a wounded divisional foe. ATL is an ATS winner over 69% of the time (24 for last 35) following a SU loss. Ruff-Ruff, 23-20 Panthers.

San Diego at Washington (+1)
Speaking of familiarity... for the second consecutive year, the Redskins have reached Week 9 and they're pretty much in "you might want to start winning some football games now, you big dummies" mode. And speaking of Martingale, I'm betting the Bolts can't win their 3rd straight East Coast trip, 1 pm EDT start. (at Philly-winner, at Jax-winner)

Alfred Morris and Roy Helu will both have monster days on Sunday. And they will have to for the Redskins to prevail, as RGKnee has another banged up wheel. The Redskins- despite not giving either guy the ball 30+ times/game, are 6th in the league in total rushing yards per game.

The Chargers bettors will get caught up in the recency effect of the Redskins getting drummed in the second half last week by Peyton Manning. And they were surprised by that? Bottom line here; the defending NFC East champs, who are a wounded animal in need of a win, are at home as a slight dog vs a team who dating back to the 2012 season, are 1 game under .500. The Baby Blue Colored Bolts are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win, and even worse, they're 0-4 ATS following a SU win of 14 points or more (last game, beat Jags 24-6). Ruff-Ruff, 31-23 Redskins.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+2.5)
I am really grasping here. Basically, I'm picking the Browns to win a game against a team they haven't beat since November 2007 (11 straight Ws by the Charm City Crowes). Yeah, November 2007... that was a long time ago- the pre-"Hope and Change" years...

You know, the days of just a $9 Trillion national debt, when you could get a gallon of gas for $2.00, when the unemployment rate was 4.7% and not 7.5%, and when you didn't have to make doctor's appointments with the same type of people who deliver your mail to your neighbors by accident 3 days a week.  Yep, those were definitely the days- back when that loser Bush was President.  (Coincidentally, second straight week I've taken a shot at that incompetent suit in the WH. You can set an egg timer on when I'll get audited.)

Again, I'm going Martingale here, so consider that the theme this week. The Browns are due. Because what you have here is two very average teams (Crowes have lost 3 of 4, Browns have lost 3 in a row), but the home team here is both (a) much better defensively (7th overall) and (b) a slight home dog. And anyone who saw Jason Campbell's play last week at Kansas City, saw a guy who can definitely get it done, and who was making very good throws all day. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 roadies vs a team with a losing record. Ruff-Ruff, 21-19 Browns.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at New England
Have you watched the Patriots this year? Did you see their game last week against a very average Dolphins team? I did, and 7 days later, I'm not sure how I covered the number. But in any case...#ChickenDinnerMotherF**ker

Bettor man gets lulled into lazy betting thoughts over the course of time. And the thought that is still engrossing much of the uninformed bettor, is that the team that plays in Foxboro is still those same old Patriots. Uhhh, no they're not. In a  nutshell, Alice in Chains fan, they're limited offensively and their defense sucks.

And let's take a real honest look at N'England's last month; loss at Cincinnati, last second home win vs N'Orleans, loss at NY Jets, and last week's improbable cover (and win) vs Miami. Yep, I just made a case that Belichick and Brady could be on a 4 game losing streak right now.

Big Hair, Big Ass (God, that picture above is disturbing..), Big Truck Nation started out slow, but has shown some life over the last few weeks. They actually had won two in a row until they rolled into the Black Hole last weekend and spotted the Raiduzz a 21-3 lead (speaking of starting slow)- but came roaring back to make it a FG goal game in the closing minutes. And I like what the Steelers have done defensively over the last three weeks. 14 points/per allowed, 277 total yards/per allowed. Relative to season stats vs the league, that's Top 3 Defense material.  The underdog between these two teams is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 played. Ruff-Ruff, 20-17 Patriots.

Indianapolis at Houston (+2.5)
If Mike Smith is the NFC version of a guy who is on his way out, for years of leading 53 underachievers, then let me introduce you to the AFC's version; Gary Kubiak. But good thing for Gare- at least for one week, yours truly is riding Mr. Martingale this week like its going out of style. And considering that Gare's Texans have lost 5 games in a row, old Gare is about to get himself a big, fat, hairy W in prime time.

The wheels really started coming off for Houston, when that dumb, goofy looking bastard Matt Schuab threw possibly the worst INT of the year in their home loss to Seattle. And since then, its been an absolute shit show(ala, "Houston, we have a problem." type shit show). However, Case Keenum looked respectable (15-25, 271, 1-0) in his first start two weeks ago against undefeated Kansas City, and I like the fact that he's had two weeks (coming off the bye) to prepare as the starter.

The Colts have been world beaters this year with wins against Seattle, Frisco, and the Peytons, but this is not a good spot for them;  On the road, in prime time, against a wounded divisional foe that needs a win like Andrew Luck needs a laugh coach. Over the last three seasons, the home team in this match up is a perfect 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. I'm calling an absolute ass whuppin' here. Ruff-Ruff, 30-13 Texans.

Last Week                                    3-2 ATS
Barking Dogs Year to Date        6-3 ATS
Overall Year to Date              19-21 ATS (48%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

Rich Turpin's Very Super Forecast: The 2017 Washington Redskins

By. Rich Turpin Week 1, Philadelphia "Let me fleece Mr. Snyder first, and then I'll see you in 2018!" The Redskins op...