Sunday, November 17, 2013

NFL Week 11: Please, Someone.... Stop The Pain of a Sub .500 Season

Jim Haslett's Worst Nightmare
Washington at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Mike Shanahan, according to all the experts on twitter, should be fired at season's end. And he needs to take his horrible, consistently Top 5 offensive coordinator son with him. Unlike Dan Snyder, they don't know shit about football.

Napoleon Foles has more than just nun-chuck skills; his passing skills are pretty sweeeeet too. He's 4-1 in his starts as the Eagles QB, he's completing about 64% of his passes, and he's thrown 16 TDs to zero point zero INTs.

Jim Haslett's defense has stopped virtually nobody this year. Josh McCown and Christian Ponder- who I think were serving me cotton candy at last year's Ashburn Fest, looked like the second comings of Johnny U and Joe Montana the weeks they faced Haslett's D. And if you think the Redskins secondary has a chance against Pedro's only friend, you're a friggin' idiot!

Philly won't continue to lose home games, folks. In fact, that anomaly ends this weekend. LeSean McCoy has had 423 total yards in these two teams last 3 match ups. He will kill them underneath, Napoleon Foles will pick apart them up top, and Dan Snyder will take another step closer towards gaining back full control of his team, god damnit! 36-27 Eagles.

Oakland at Houston (-7)
The last time I bet on the Texans, they went into halftime with a comfortable 21-3 lead over Indy. The only problem was that their coach failed to go into halftime with them. He was laying on the turf with a crooked face, doing his best Dick Clark impression; "Dappy Dew Dear!!!"

Case Keenum has the coolest name for a QB since Johnny Football. And Johnny Football has the coolest name for a QB since Timmy Dicksmasher (he was on my Lower Loudoun 'B' League football team, circa 1984). In any case, Case Keenum- though 0-3 as a starter in Houston, is playing like a man possessed. 7 TDs,  0 picks, and a 107 passer rating is pretty damn good.

Seriously, until Kubiak's halftime mini-stroke, Case Keenum and the Texans were absolutely working a very good Indy team. And with a much inferior opponent coming into their house today, on the back end of consecutive roadies, like OJ said, Oakland fan, "Looooook Out!!!!"

Houston has lost 7 in a row, and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. That's not good, 46%  ATS Yack. But neither is the Raiduzz 1-8-1 ATS record in their last 10 following an ATS win. I'm making a case for Case here, in a blowout. 37-9 Texans.

Minnesota at Seattle (-12.5)
This Muh Fuggah Is Going To Run Wild on Sunday
The Suckhawks have been moving along pretty swimmingly this season, virtually under the radar as teams like the Saints, Broncos, and the surprising Chiefs have garnered most of the talking heads' attention.

The reality of their season thus far is that they're a 9-1 team who should probably be 6-3 or 5-4. They literally escaped losses to Carolina, Houston, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. But I think this is a spot where they keep the home stretch part of the season heater going, (See last week's dismantling at Atlanta) and they absolutely pummel a not very good team in Minnesota, at home.

Seattle's defense is a solid 3rd overall (yards allowed/points allowed per game), but their offense can be sneaky good. They've scored 27 or more points in three of their last four, and along with Marshawn Lynch's 4.6 yards/per, they lead the league in rushing offense. Seattle hasn't really beaten a team's ass at home since Weeks 2 and 3 (SF, Jax), and I think they're due. Seattle is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 at home vs. teams with a losing record. Minnesota has nothing here, and will be poll-axed by a Seattle team who realizes its game on time. 34-6 Seahawks.

San Francisco at New Orleans (-3)
Colin Kapernick and the 49ers pass attack (I apologize to the word 'attack' for using it in the opening sentence) isn't exactly getting it done this year. 32nd in the league (DFL), and they are 13 yards and change behind the next to DFL passing teams in the league, Oakland and Tampa. That's awful, Lurch.

But those abysmal numbers aren't all on CK. His tight end is banged up, Michael Crabtree is banged up, and Anquan Boldin is not running past a single corner in this league. The ugly- and I mean the ugly reality of it, is that through 9 games, Kapernick has only thrown for over 200 yards twice, and he's thrown for 150 yards or less, 4 times. Uhhhh....Bevis???

Sean Payton and the Saints are pretty good, and they're really good at home. Counting this year and Sean Payton's last year as the Saints coach in 2011, he's undefeated at home, and has covered 13 of his last 14 at home, which is a sick stat alone. But take a look at the margins of victory over that same span. Starting with last week's dismantling of Dallas, and going back to the Saints first home game in 2011, the Saints have won at home by 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, and 17. That's an average margin of victory of 22 points. That's a stat that I put in the "fucking absurd" category. Saints win 27-5.

New England at Carolina (-2.5)
Move Over, Tom. There is Room For More
Than One Pretty Boy QB in This League. 
Monday, November 18, 2013, will be the day in the 2013 NFL Season, in which the rest of the uninformed public steps back and says, "Whoa. Carolina is for real." 

And they are. If I can play the could've, should've, would've game for two seconds, this team could be 8-1 right now. Last minute losses in consecutive weeks at the beginning of the season, is really the only reason they're not. Because they've won 5 in a row, they have the # 2 defense in the league, and they just went toe for toe with Frisco, and beat them on the road at their own game.

New England is coming off a bye, they're 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday night tilts, and I realize most of the betting public loves Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. So why in the F is Carolina a slight favorite here? Exactly. This line looks too good to be true for most of you donks, and it will be. Besides the fact that the Panthers are a good team, and will make pretty boy Tom's life miserable Monday night.

Tuesday morning, when the Panthers are 7-3 and just a game back of the Saints in that division, Who Dat Nation might want to strap up their helmets and tighten their laces. Besides two dates with those Saints, the rest of the Pussy Cats schedule is not exactly murderer's row. If they can get a split with dem Saints, they could win said division. One last thing; the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 roadies. 23-19 Carolina.

I did not take a "Barking Dog" for the LVHSC this week, so for the sake of doing so and maintaining an ATS "Barking Dog" record, I am taking the Packers (+4) over NYG. Ruff-Ruff....

Last Week                                            2-3 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date              9-7 ATS
Overall Year To Date                    23-27 ATS (46%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

For those of you who care, or even if you don't, I went in 50/50 on the LVHSC with a retired buddy of my old man, and quite frankly a buddy of mine at this point in life, Irv aka, "The Legend". He lives about 15 minutes outside the Vegas Strip, and he's the guy who submits our picks each Thursday morning at the Hilton. Anyway, The Legend is an interesting individual, with quite the sense of humor. His running joke, that he's been using for the last 20 years, is that my 5'11", 190 lb father (Jeffrey) is fat (generally refers to him as 'Fat Fuck') and that my very successful electrician uncle is stupid (refers to him as 'Uncle Dummy', as his name is actually Tommy).

Anyway, The Legend- deservingly so, has been busting my balls all year because of my poor prognosticating abilities thru the 2013 campaign. And in his weekly emails to me, in which he copies about 6-7 of our mutual friends, including my father, uncle, and others, he began to run with this bit about how the teller at the Hilton Sports Book began making fun of our piss poor record. So to better understand The Legend, and the abuse I get each week during this most frustrating ATS season, here is what he sent this week. Enjoy. (The Legend loves Johnny Football, hence the reference below)


   Herewith ur lines for this week…..philly minus 3 ½….hou minus 7…..sea minus 12 ½….no minus 3…car minus 2 ½……as explained to ur simple ass on the phone is that the leader is 19 games over 500…..i refuse to go into the wallow of horse shit where u are…..bad enuff that the ticket taker snickers at ‘’sportsyack’’, but this morning the manager wanted to come out and introduce himself to the ‘’yack’’ he is a ‘’FAT FUCK’’, no offense Jeffrey, and he had the ‘’stones’’ to suggest that I change my name from ‘’sportsyack’’ to ‘’sportsDUMMY’’…I told the ‘’fat fuck’’, again no offense Jeffrey, to go fuck himself and I wud be making a run of victories of magical proportions…….i left the book in disgrace and disgust…I felt that I had been sodomized and it was not even Johnny football.  It was ugly and hi and dry…..The Legend did not sign up for this kind of abuse…get with the fucking program ‘’yack’’…there is still time but u gotta get it going……Legend 

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