Saturday, November 23, 2013

NFL Week 12: I'm So Close To .500 That I Can Almost Smell It. Or Is That My Own Ass?

Chicago at St. Louis (-1)
I am The Fisher King. I Can Do Anything.
Who out there bets horses? (i.e. who else is a total degen like me?) One of my favorite lines to play on a horse race, is pitting one horse against another, based on better class, or more relevant races run versus the other. Here are the Bears last 4 opponents; Washington (3-7), Green Bay (5-5), Detroit (6-4), and Baltimore (4-6), 2-2 over that span.  And here are the Rams; Carolina (7-3), Seattle (10-1), Tennessee (4-6), and Indy (7-3).

St. Louis played much tougher competition, and the Rams 1-3 record over that span is no surprise. But they did beat Indy, and beat them bad, and the only game they weren't really in over that span was at Carolina. In fact, they were one play away from beating 10-1 Seattle.

I'll take Jeff Fisher all day at home in this spot, especially coming off a bye (13-5 ATS career). Also, Kellen Clemens has been very good his last two outings. Ride his heater this week versus Chicago's 24th ranked defense. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. I. Love. This. Game. 26-16 Rams.

Tampa Bay (+9) at Detroit
The Fuccaneers have won two games in a row, and they're on a 3 game ATS heater since "contracting" MRSA. The Lions, whose coach apparently hates chip shot field goal attempts to potentially take a 7 point lead on the road, are very up and down. They control their own destiny with 6 games to go, but they've failed to cover 3 of their last 4, and I hate them in this spot laying a monster number against a team whose playing well as of late.

The Fucs are coming off wins against Atlanta and Miami, and somehow pissed away a 21-0 lead at a very good Seattle team 3 weeks ago. Mike Glennon is finding his groove, some kid named Bobby Rainey ran wild on Sunday, and their defense has been stout. They gave up 15 meaningless, late game points against Atlanta, in a game that was an absolute blowout, and yielded just 19 and 27 to Miami and Seattle the weeks prior. Also, Tampa's offense has scored 22 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games.

Detroit is an exciting team to watch, and since I bet them 5 weeks ago to win the NFC at 13/1, I have a little bit of a rooting interest the rest of the way. But bottom-line, they're defense is very suspect (yielding over 25 points/per) and they shouldn't be giving (almost) double digit points to anybody. Looky here, man: although 2-8, Tampa has led at one point, in 8 of their 10 games. 33-27 Lions.

Carolina at Miami (+4)
This Guy Runs Miami's "Toughen The
Fuck Up" Department
If Monday night was Carolina's Big Boy moment, then this Sunday's, short week/travel to Miami tilt, is Big Boy moment's 1a (another horse reference, guys). And unfortunately for them, I think the 1/1a, one-two punch is going to backfire, as the outside horse (Miami) "coming off a claim", is going to get them at the wire.

Seriously, props to Carolina (and me, as I had them ATS) for their Monday night triumph. The gift at the end of the game by the refs, truly overshadowed what was a very good performance by Cam and Crew. They have now won and covered 6 games in a row, which is very impressive. However, this is a bad spot for them. Short week, traveling, and having just shown the world on national TV that they're for real. Can you say "let down"?

Amid all the sensitivity training down in South Florida, the Flippers have managed to win 2 of the their last 3, including consecutive home wins. In fact, the Flippers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home tilts. And their defense has started to sack up. They've only allowed one passer to throw for over 300 yards over their last 6 games (Andy Dalton), and remarkably, held Tom Brady to just 116 yards passing in a game Miami lost. Carolina's streak is up, in what will be a low scoring affair. 19-17 Flippers.

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Arizona
The Cardinals are getting a lot of run as of late, because they've rattled off 3 straight wins. But take a look at who those 3 opponents were; Jacksonville, Houston, and Atlanta. Those 3 teams have a combined 5-26 record. Poo-Poo. Also, Carson Palmer- another on the long list of Southern Cal QBs who aspire to suck once they reach the NFL, doesn't impress me. He's actually thrown more picks (15) than TDs (14). Somebody who does impress me- Andrew Effing Luck.

Andrew Luck, who inherited a 2-14 team as a rookie, turned that boat around to the tune of 11-5 and a playoff berth. More impressive IMO, is that the guy with the goofy laugh is (regular season) 8-5 ATS on the road.

Give me the team with the much better QB, on extra days rest (played two Thursdays ago), who is in desperate need of getting out to an early lead, and laying the wood. If you could play the due factor based on what teams have done just in the first half as of late, the Colts are the team for you (due, baby). Their last 3 tilts have resulted in first half deficits of 17-6, 28-0, and 21-3. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been losing or tied at halftime, in 3 of their last 4. Zona is 2-5 ATS, last 7 vs a team with a winning record. 29-20 Colts.

San Francisco at Washington (+5.5)
If Dan "Suck In My Gut" Snyder Gave a Hoot About His Team,
He'd Sign The Horny Bastard on The Left To an Extension
The Redskins (ha-ha, I said it, Mike Wise) are back to their old ways. And by "old ways", I mean stinking up the fucking joint, all by their lonesome in the cellar of the NFC Least. But no worries, Redskins' fans. Dan Snyder is about to fire a guy and then hire a guy for the 8th time in 14 years, and we'll get'em next year!!!!

RG-Me had finally gotten around to playing well until Sunday's debacle in Philly. With the exception of the Denver game, he's played well over the last month or so, and certainly well enough to win against Chicago, San Diego, and Minnesota- winning 2 of those 3. One guy who has been consistent week in and week out, is Alfred Morris. The 6th rounder, who soon to be fired Mike Shanahan stole from the 2012 draft, is 3rd in the league in rushing yards, and has a very non-6th round looking, 5.1 yards per carry. ("Mike got lucky with that draft pick."- said by typical Shanahan hater, who most likely calls sports talk radio shows, and who begins every comment with, "let me tell you sum-tin', man...")

San Francisco is coming off a tough loss against New Orleans thanks to Roger Goodell's two hand touch rule book, and they will be on the road for the second consecutive week. They've been less impressive this year, primarily because their passing game is a disaster. But luckily for them, they get to face a defense whose on the same talent level with Stone Bridge High School's JV team. (my apologies to SBHS JV team)

Colin Kap will probably have some success against the before mentioned defense. But as much as he needs Washington's defense to right the ship, you can say the same for what the Redskins need right now; a battered team, coming off a tough road loss, on the back end of consecutive roadies, whose passing game is abysmal. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record (another interesting tid-bit, Shanahan haters). Alfred Morris, not Frank Gore, will be running wild on Monday night. Ruff-Ruff, 27-24 Redskins.

Last Week                                               3-1-1 ATS
Barking Dogs Year To Date                    9-8 ATS
Overall Year To Date                      26-28-1 ATS (48%)
Reg. Season ATS Since 2009   173-134-11 ATS (56.3%)

Follow along as 'Yack' pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

This is my pet hippo, Timmy. I'm bringing him to my parents' house for Thanksgiving.

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