Friday, November 1, 2013

NFL Week 9: Nothing But Barking Dogs. (I'm Talking About My ATS Winners, You Dopes)

Atlanta (+7.5) at Carolina
I hate the Falcons. Honestly, I don't know what the fuck I'm thinking here. I've told you that Mike Smith is out of a job at season's end, and that Matt Ryan and crew are perennial losers, so what am I doing laying big, fat, sloppy cash on them? Its called Martingale, baby, and familiarity with opponent.

The Fuckans have lost 4 of their last 5, and in 2 of their last 3, they were never even in the contest (at Arizona, home vs NY Jets). Conversely, the Panthers have won 4 of their last 5, and have covered descent sized numbers (-6.5 at Tampa, -7.5 home vs St. Louis) in their last 2. But this is the spot where you jump on the loser, and fade the winner.

The Fuckans have won 4 of their last 5 against their divisional foes, and they've scored 30 points or more in 5 of the last 6 these two have played. And in the last 3 match ups between these two, Matty Ice has gone Falcon off. His stat line reads: 81 of 127/ 1,031 yards, 9 TDs to 2 INTs, with a 107.2 Quarterback rating.

Cam and Crew have been a betting fave of mine all year. But I'm not ready to lay a big number against a wounded divisional foe. ATL is an ATS winner over 69% of the time (24 for last 35) following a SU loss. Ruff-Ruff, 23-20 Panthers.

San Diego at Washington (+1)
Speaking of familiarity... for the second consecutive year, the Redskins have reached Week 9 and they're pretty much in "you might want to start winning some football games now, you big dummies" mode. And speaking of Martingale, I'm betting the Bolts can't win their 3rd straight East Coast trip, 1 pm EDT start. (at Philly-winner, at Jax-winner)

Alfred Morris and Roy Helu will both have monster days on Sunday. And they will have to for the Redskins to prevail, as RGKnee has another banged up wheel. The Redskins- despite not giving either guy the ball 30+ times/game, are 6th in the league in total rushing yards per game.

The Chargers bettors will get caught up in the recency effect of the Redskins getting drummed in the second half last week by Peyton Manning. And they were surprised by that? Bottom line here; the defending NFC East champs, who are a wounded animal in need of a win, are at home as a slight dog vs a team who dating back to the 2012 season, are 1 game under .500. The Baby Blue Colored Bolts are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win, and even worse, they're 0-4 ATS following a SU win of 14 points or more (last game, beat Jags 24-6). Ruff-Ruff, 31-23 Redskins.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+2.5)
I am really grasping here. Basically, I'm picking the Browns to win a game against a team they haven't beat since November 2007 (11 straight Ws by the Charm City Crowes). Yeah, November 2007... that was a long time ago- the pre-"Hope and Change" years...

You know, the days of just a $9 Trillion national debt, when you could get a gallon of gas for $2.00, when the unemployment rate was 4.7% and not 7.5%, and when you didn't have to make doctor's appointments with the same type of people who deliver your mail to your neighbors by accident 3 days a week.  Yep, those were definitely the days- back when that loser Bush was President.  (Coincidentally, second straight week I've taken a shot at that incompetent suit in the WH. You can set an egg timer on when I'll get audited.)

Again, I'm going Martingale here, so consider that the theme this week. The Browns are due. Because what you have here is two very average teams (Crowes have lost 3 of 4, Browns have lost 3 in a row), but the home team here is both (a) much better defensively (7th overall) and (b) a slight home dog. And anyone who saw Jason Campbell's play last week at Kansas City, saw a guy who can definitely get it done, and who was making very good throws all day. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 roadies vs a team with a losing record. Ruff-Ruff, 21-19 Browns.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at New England
Have you watched the Patriots this year? Did you see their game last week against a very average Dolphins team? I did, and 7 days later, I'm not sure how I covered the number. But in any case...#ChickenDinnerMotherF**ker

Bettor man gets lulled into lazy betting thoughts over the course of time. And the thought that is still engrossing much of the uninformed bettor, is that the team that plays in Foxboro is still those same old Patriots. Uhhh, no they're not. In a  nutshell, Alice in Chains fan, they're limited offensively and their defense sucks.

And let's take a real honest look at N'England's last month; loss at Cincinnati, last second home win vs N'Orleans, loss at NY Jets, and last week's improbable cover (and win) vs Miami. Yep, I just made a case that Belichick and Brady could be on a 4 game losing streak right now.

Big Hair, Big Ass (God, that picture above is disturbing..), Big Truck Nation started out slow, but has shown some life over the last few weeks. They actually had won two in a row until they rolled into the Black Hole last weekend and spotted the Raiduzz a 21-3 lead (speaking of starting slow)- but came roaring back to make it a FG goal game in the closing minutes. And I like what the Steelers have done defensively over the last three weeks. 14 points/per allowed, 277 total yards/per allowed. Relative to season stats vs the league, that's Top 3 Defense material.  The underdog between these two teams is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 played. Ruff-Ruff, 20-17 Patriots.

Indianapolis at Houston (+2.5)
If Mike Smith is the NFC version of a guy who is on his way out, for years of leading 53 underachievers, then let me introduce you to the AFC's version; Gary Kubiak. But good thing for Gare- at least for one week, yours truly is riding Mr. Martingale this week like its going out of style. And considering that Gare's Texans have lost 5 games in a row, old Gare is about to get himself a big, fat, hairy W in prime time.

The wheels really started coming off for Houston, when that dumb, goofy looking bastard Matt Schuab threw possibly the worst INT of the year in their home loss to Seattle. And since then, its been an absolute shit show(ala, "Houston, we have a problem." type shit show). However, Case Keenum looked respectable (15-25, 271, 1-0) in his first start two weeks ago against undefeated Kansas City, and I like the fact that he's had two weeks (coming off the bye) to prepare as the starter.

The Colts have been world beaters this year with wins against Seattle, Frisco, and the Peytons, but this is not a good spot for them;  On the road, in prime time, against a wounded divisional foe that needs a win like Andrew Luck needs a laugh coach. Over the last three seasons, the home team in this match up is a perfect 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. I'm calling an absolute ass whuppin' here. Ruff-Ruff, 30-13 Texans.

Last Week                                    3-2 ATS
Barking Dogs Year to Date        6-3 ATS
Overall Year to Date              19-21 ATS (48%)

Follow along as "Yack" pursues excellence in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. @Sportsyack on Twitter. *Lines as of Thursday morning, LVH Sports Book*

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